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Keys to good bicycle parking

The same high standard as for cars

Bicycle parking is like car parking: you want a place to park that’s convenient, which you can count on being available, and where you can expect your vehicle to be safe when you get back.

If any of those criteria are lacking—parking is too far away, you think you’ll have trouble finding a spot, or you’re going to seriously worry about your equipment being stolen—you will think twice about making the trip.

Bicycling is no different. What you expect about the parking is a big influence on whether you travel that way at all.

Good bike parking isn’t rocket science, but it does have some basic requirements.

1. High‑security, frame‑lockable racks

The first key is a strong, theft‑resistant bike rack that allows the user to lock their bicycle’s frame, along with at least one wheel, to the rack.

Experts have long been settled on the best design: it’s an “inverted U,” a simple shape of thick bent tubing that resembles an upside‑down letter “U.” It’s so called a staple rack or a hoop rack.

Measurement‑wise, it has two vertical posts typically spaced about 2 feet apart that turn towards each other at a height of about 3 feet and connect. The rack is bolted or otherwise fixed into concrete and spaced at least 2 feet away from anything else.

The inverted U is the gold standard in part because it is uniquely compatible with all different bicycle sizes and shapes. That means bikes with wide wheels, bikes that are long (i.e., “longtail” cargo bikes), bikes with frames that have limited access points, and bikes that use front and rear cargo mounts.

Other styles of racks tend to create problems for users, including that they tend to be incompatible with bikes that vary at all from the picture of a traditional skinny-wheel bike without any racks or gear.

The inverted U is simple to install and maintain (essentially a single bent steel tube connected to concrete with a few anchor bolts), inexpensive (a good one to hold two bikes is under $200 and less than $100 in bulk), and easy to find (lots of manufacturers make them). And it doesn’t have to be exactly a “U”—other variants that can work include a rounder half‑circle, a squarer shape, and designs with a crossbar.

Here’s a detailed bike rack selection guide.

2. Dependable availability

The second key to good bike parking is that riders can rely on finding a spot.

Mostly this means there needs to be a sufficient number of spaces. For starters, that’s at least two racks (which each hold two bikes) for any kind of establishment that has parking for cars: a corner shop, a café, a small office. If people are coming to you with a car, they can and want to come to you on a bike.

The number goes up from there and is based on the volume of people who visit. The basic idea is that if it’s ever full, you need more bike parking. Otherwise, it’s not parking a rider can depend on. Here’s a sizing chart for the amount of bicycle parking needed for buildings of different sizes and uses.

Bike parking that’s dependably available also needs to be in a convenient location that is protected from being taken up by other uses, such as cars, motorcycles, stored items, or other material that gets in the way of parking bikes.

3. In addition to short‑term parking, locked enclosures for longer stays

The third key is that places where riders intend to park their bikes for more than a few hours—otherwise known as long‑term parking—generally need a locked physical enclosure.

There are at least four groups of people who need long‑term bicycle parking:

  • Residents of multidwelling housing. These are people who live in multifamily buildings such as apartments, condos, co‑ops, dorms, and similar complexes. It also includes students in dorms, shared apartments, and co‑ops who rely on bikes for daily trips.
  • Workers who need to park extended periods for their job. This means employees in office, retail, service, and industrial settings. It also includes commercial and delivery riders, both gig workers and cargo fleets, who require a stable base of operations.
  • Longer‑stay visitors. People doing errands and other tasks that can go more than a few hours. This could be shoppers, patients, and clients. It includes participants in meetings and conferences, and students going to class and using campus facilities for longer periods. It is people completing everyday business and also less common activities that take a while.
  • Travelers connecting with mass transit. People who ride their bike to connect with buses, trains, and ferries. This category also includes people flying who find biking the best way to get to and from the airport.

Here’s a briefing with more detail on the types of needs for users who are staying for longer periods.

For these groups, parked bicycles are extremely vulnerable: no matter how good their personal lock or the quality of the bike rack, a determined thief with a battery‑powered saw from a hardware store can defeat anything in less than a few minutes.

Moreover, bicycles are easy to carry (or just ride) off. They are valuable, pound‑for‑pound, and easy to sell on the black market. And the bicycle’s components and stored cargo are just sitting out in the open.

So, for a user to park a bicycle for more than a few hours and have peace of mind, they need something more than a rack—they need a locked physical enclosure with carefully controlled access.

Types of such enclosures include an indoor bike room, a secure cage in a garage or parking structure, a standalone secure shed or dedicated bike building, a modular, movable bike station or pod, and individual bike lockers. Here is a guide with more detail on types of locked enclosures for long‑term bicycle parking stays.

For enclosures that are accessed by multiple users (essentially, all except individual lockers or space controlled by an insured valet), you still need bike racks, and the staple of those needs to be inverted U racks mounted on the ground.

Here’s a briefing with more detail on types of locked enclosures for long-term bicyle parking stays.

4. A network of good bike parking everywhere

The last important key to good bike parking is to make good bicycle facilities—the kind described above—ubiquitous.

In other words, good bike parking isn’t just here or there. It’s everywhere.

It’s a network of facilities in which you don’t have to change the mode you take because of gaps, or uncertainty, or time spent thinking about it.

It’s a confident expectation you have that it will be where you need to go, like you have with parking for a car.

What does it take to create a network of good bike parking everywhere in communities? The most direct way is public policy, and there are two basic approaches. The first is to enact legally mandated minimum parking standards. Many U.S. cities have done this with a focus on requirements for developers of new buildings.

The upside of this approach is that it’s an essentially fail‑safe way to make sure great bike parking is established when new developments are built. The downside is that the pace of installing new bike parking is limited to the pace of new building—which, in the typical U.S. town that is already well‑developed, means it will take many decades to catalyze a meaningful new bike parking network.

The second approach is to go beyond codes for new developments and be creative about closing the gap today. This is new territory for city governments and will require problem‑solving and partnerships. It’s also an opportunity for private pro


These four keys to good bike parking are not exhaustive. There are some additional requirements, which are generally modest and intuitive, like making sure bicycle parking areas are near front entrances and feel safe to be in. And there are some things you can do to really make bike parking sing, like building roofs over outdoor racks to protect users from the elements. perty owners and managers as well as service providers to step in and lead. (Here’s a fuller installation guide for bike racks and short-term bike parking more generally.)

But these four keys—(1) high‑security, frame‑lockable racks, (2) dependable availability, (3) locked enclosures for longer stays, and (4) a network of conforming facilities everywhere—overcome the most important and issues and get communities on their way to bike parking their residents and visitors deserve.

References

List of guidance, standards, and models for bicycle parking

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Transportation, urbanism, and energy: Three elements that can change it all

Transforming how we move, how we build and use land, and how we power our societies is central to creating a livable, equitable, climate‑safe future. Transportation, urbanism, and energy together shape the bulk of global emissions and also determine access to jobs, housing, food, and opportunity. When these systems are redesigned with people and ecosystems in mind, they become powerful levers for cutting pollution, improving health, reducing costs, and strengthening communities against the disruptions that are already here.

Foundations: Demand-Side Solutions, “ASI,” Resilience, and Wellbeing

Several cross‑cutting ideas underpin this transformation. One is demand‑side solutions. These are practical ways to reduce resource use and travel demand that are closely aligned with saving money and boosting efficiency. Better insulation and efficient appliances lower energy bills. Compact urban form shortens trips and reduces fuel costs. Logistics improvements cut freight mileage and operating expenses. Demand‑side solutions matter because they can deliver large emissions cuts while saving households, businesses, and governments money. Yet they often do not scale on their own. Users are largely subject to the products and services they are offered and the rules that shape those offers. Utilities make money by selling energy, not saving it, unless policies change. Automakers profit from larger, more expensive vehicles. Building owners often pass energy costs through to tenants, which weakens incentives to invest in efficiency. Without regulation, incentives, and public investment that reward using less, demand‑side solutions remain underused.

Building on that, a second foundational concept is the “Avoid–Shift–Improve” (ASI) framework. First, avoid unnecessary resource use and travel demand. Then, shift what remains to cleaner and more efficient options. Finally, improve technologies and operations. ASI matters because it multiplies what is possible. By avoiding and shifting first, technology improvements do not have to work as hard or as fast to deliver big gains. Yet ASI does not play out on its own because current systems, habits, and investments tend to lock in inefficient patterns, like long commutes and sprawling land use. Many planning and investment decisions still assume more driving, more infrastructure, and more consumption, rather than rethinking the need for them.

A third unifying idea is a broad notion of climate action as resilience that combines mitigation, adaptation, and a just transition. Mitigation reduces emissions. Adaptation prepares communities for the impacts that are already locked in. A just transition ensures that workers and communities are supported and empowered through the changes ahead. Resilience in this wider sense matters because climate risk is social and economic, not just physical. It affects jobs, housing, food systems, and political stability. Yet this kind of resilience does not emerge automatically. Market forces alone do not protect the most vulnerable, and investments in resilience are often delayed because their benefits are long term and diffuse. Intentional policies, strong institutions, and community leadership are needed to make resilience real and fair.

Wellbeing is a fourth pillar and asks how climate actions can make life better. It generally includes the foundations already mentioned—demand-side solutions, with ASI as part of that, and resilience—but it is broader. Cleaning up air pollution improves health and reduces medical costs. Making streets safer for bicyclists and pedestrians encourages physical activity and gives people more choices in how they get around. Deploying electrification in ways that give people more control over their finances, such as stable electricity costs, home solar, and community energy programs, can reduce stress and increase financial security. In sum, it’s a lens for focusing on climate solutions that provide the greatest benefit. Wellbeing matters because it aligns climate policy with people’s immediate interests and daily lives, which builds lasting support. Yet wellbeing is not guaranteed. Many decisions are driven by short‑term profit or narrow cost calculations that ignore health, safety, and community impacts. Without intentional design, climate measures can even worsen inequities, for example if clean technologies are only affordable for wealthier households.

Transportation: Rethinking How People and Goods Move

Reimagining transportation starts with how and why people and goods move in the first place. Applying ASI, we can avoid some travel through digital services, better local access to jobs and amenities, and shorter, more regional supply chains. We can then shift many remaining trips to low‑carbon modes such as walking, cycling, micromobility, high quality public transit, and rail for both passengers and freight.

We still need motorized vehicles for many trips. Here, the focus is on improving technology, mainly through electrification and efficiency. That means scaling up electric buses, delivery vehicles, and passenger cars, investing in safe and dense networks for walking and cycling, and prioritizing rail and zero‑emission trucks for freight. Aviation and shipping are harder to decarbonize, so they rely more on efficiency measures, demand moderation, and truly sustainable fuels where needed. Done well, this transformation reduces congestion and air pollution, lowers household transport costs, improves safety, and makes access to opportunity less dependent on car ownership.

Urbanism: Middle Housing, Urban Form, and Land Stewardship

Urbanism, meaning how we plan cities, towns, and regions, both enables and amplifies these mobility changes. Compact, mixed‑use, transit‑oriented development brings homes, jobs, schools, and services closer together so that many trips can be shorter or not needed at all.

A crucial piece of this is infill “middle housing.” This includes a diverse range of housing types such as duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, courtyard apartments, small multiplexes, and accessory dwelling units added within existing neighborhoods. Middle housing is more space and energy efficient than detached single‑family homes. Because it is often located in existing urban fabric, it is also locationally efficient. It allows more people to live closer to where they need to go, which makes walking, cycling, and transit more viable and supports lower household transportation costs.

At the same time, building standards and retrofits can dramatically increase energy performance and comfort through insulation, passive solar design, natural ventilation, high‑performance windows, efficient appliances, and heat pumps. Thoughtful urbanism also stewards land and ecosystems. It preserves high quality farmland and natural habitat at the urban edge, integrates urban agriculture where appropriate, restores wetlands and river corridors, and weaves green and blue infrastructure through the built environment to cool cities, manage floods, and support biodiversity. The result is development that lowers emissions, enhances resilience, and broadens access to decent, affordable housing.

Energy: Widespread Electrification and Cleaner, More Effective System of Power

Modernizing energy systems through widespread electrification provides the backbone that makes low‑carbon transport and urbanism truly scalable. The central move is to shift from fossil‑based fuels toward a clean, largely renewable, highly integrated electric system. This involves rapidly expanding wind, solar, and other low‑carbon generation, reinforcing and interconnecting grids, and adding flexibility through storage, demand response, and smart controls.

As buildings and vehicles electrify, the grid becomes the central organizing system for energy and its design must prioritize reliability, affordability, and security. At the same time, distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar, community solar farms, neighborhood batteries, and resilient microgrids can give communities more direct control over their energy, keep critical services running during disruptions, and share economic benefits more widely.

Where direct electrification is difficult, such as certain industrial processes, long‑distance shipping, or some high‑temperature applications, low‑carbon fuels like green hydrogen or sustainable bioenergy can play targeted roles rather than trying to replicate fossil use one for one. A cleaner, smarter, more participatory energy system reduces health burdens from air pollution, protects economies from fossil fuel price swings, and can be designed to correct long‑standing inequities in access and cost.

Synergies: Transportation, Urbanism, and Energy Working Together

These three transformations are more powerful together than in isolation. Compact, mixed‑use, transit‑oriented urbanism with abundant middle housing makes it far easier for people to choose walking, cycling, and transit. That in turn supports more frequent and viable transit service and reduces the number and size of vehicles that must be electrified.

A cleaner, more resilient electric grid allows buildings and vehicles to run on low‑carbon power, turning every new electric bus, train, or heat pump into a deeper climate win. Distributed energy resources and microgrids can be located in dense neighborhoods and near critical transport hubs, which enhances resilience during extreme events and keeps mobility and essential services functioning. When transportation plans, zoning and housing policy, and grid and charging infrastructure are coordinated, they become a workhorse package. They form a set of mutually reinforcing interventions that deliver large reductions in emissions and clear co‑benefits for health, equity, and economic opportunity.

Beyond the Core: Other Crucial Transitions

There are important additional transitions that require focused attention beyond this core. Heavy industry, especially cement, steel, and chemicals, demands new process technologies, material efficiency and circularity, and in some cases carbon capture to address process emissions. Food systems must transform across the entire chain, from regenerative and climate‑smart farming practices to reductions in food loss and waste and a shift toward healthier, lower‑impact diets where feasible.

Ecosystem protection and restoration, including forests, peatlands, mangroves, and grasslands, are vital both for carbon storage and for biodiversity, water regulation, and cultural values. Some level of carbon dioxide removal, especially through nature‑based solutions, is likely needed to balance residual emissions from the hardest‑to‑abate sectors. None of these changes can reach the required scale without deep shifts in finance, governance, and international cooperation, along with robust social protections, worker retraining, and community‑led decision‑making to ensure a truly just transition.

Bringing the Elements to Life

Taken together, the pillars of transportation, urbanism, and energy, framed by ASI, demand‑side solutions, wellbeing, and a broad understanding of resilience, offer a practical and highly synergistic foundation for climate action. Transforming how we move, build, and power our lives can slash emissions, strengthen economies, and improve everyday experience in ways people can see and feel, while creating the conditions for success in harder sectors like heavy industry and agriculture. By pairing this core workhorse package with targeted efforts in food systems, industry, ecosystem restoration, and fair economic transition, societies can chart development pathways that not only avoid the worst climate risks but also actively enhance human flourishing and planetary health.

References

Creutzig, F. et al. (2018). Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being. Nature Climate Change. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0121-0

IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III Contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/

Newman, P., Beatley, T., & Boyer, H. (2017). Resilient Cities: Overcoming Fossil Fuel Dependence. Island Press. https://islandpress.org/books/resilient-cities-second-edition

Gehl, J. (2010). Cities for People. Island Press. https://islandpress.org/books/cities-people
Mehaffy, M. (2019). A New Pattern Language for Growing Regions: Places, Networks, Processes. Sustasis Press. https://sustasis.net/NPL.html

Sovacool, B. (2016). How long will it take Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions. Energy Research & Social Science. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.12.020
CTOD (2022). Building Mixed‑Income,

Transit‑Oriented Communities: A Practitioner’s Guide. Center for Transit‑Oriented Development. https://ctod.org/reports
Steffen, W. et al. (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115

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Public transit: A toolbox to make transportation safer

Public transit is a lot of things: an affordable way to get around, a means to reduce congestion, a climate solution.

Another contribution that gets far less billing: Public transit is a crucial tool for making streets safe from death and serious injury in traffic, a danger that is especially (and preventably) high in the United States.

In this country, places with strong, well‑used are much safer, with far fewer people killed or seriously injured on the roads. And the better the public transit service, the safer still.

So it is not just about whether a city has some buses or a rail line. It is about how much transit is available, how often it comes, and how many people actually use it. When transit is frequent, reliable, and woven into daily life, it becomes one of the most powerful traffic‑safety interventions we have.

Below is a primer on how that works.

Transit‑rich places are empirically safer

Across the United States, the safest big cities on the roads tend overwhelmingly to be the ones where people ride transit a lot.

Analyses that combine crash data with transit usage reach the same conclusion again and again. A study in the Journal of Urban Health by Hamidi and Ewing (2020), highlighted by Streetsblog USA, found that cities with a higher share of passenger miles traveled on transit per person had significantly lower traffic fatality rates. The more transit use per capita, the fewer people killed on the roads (Hamidi & Ewing 2020; Anderson 2019).

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Roadway Safety Strategy documents note that communities with strong transit and lower per‑capita driving generally see fewer serious crashes (USDOT 2022). And analysis by the American Public Transportation Association (APTA) and Vision Zero Network concludes that public transportation is far safer than private vehicles, both for riders and for people outside the vehicle (APTA & Vision Zero Network 2016). One widely cited synthesis finds that using public transportation is about 10 times safer for commuters than traveling by car, with commuter/intercity rail even safer (Safety+Health 2018; APTA 2018).

On an individual level, travel on buses and trains is much safer per mile than in private cars. Litman’s review of national data finds that the risk of death while traveling by transit is an order of magnitude lower per passenger‑mile than by automobile (Litman 2022). The chance of being killed as a passenger on a bus or train is tiny compared with the chance of being killed in or by a car during an equivalent journey.

The risk of being hit while walking or biking by a transit vehicle is also very low. Transit vehicles account for a large share of passenger miles, but only a small share of pedestrian and cyclist deaths. Federal Transit Administration safety data show that per mile traveled, buses and trains are implicated in far fewer fatal collisions with people walking or biking than cars and light trucks (FTA 2023; Litman 2022).

There is another, less obvious benefit that is profound. In a transit‑rich setting, your chance of being the driver who kills or seriously injures someone else drops sharply. In a car‑dependent system, many drivers will, over a lifetime, be involved in at least one serious crash. When more of your daily trips happen on transit, operated by professionals, your exposure to being that driver shrinks. So does the exposure of the people you love.

When we talk about “transit‑rich” places in this context, we are not just talking about any city that has a bus line or a rail spur. We mean cities and regions where buses, trains, or trams run often, in many directions, for most of the day and week. You do not need to check a timetable. You can trust that service will be there when you show up. Large numbers of people actually use it for work, errands, and daily life.

This is not a binary category. It is a spectrum. The more frequent, widespread, and reliable the service, and the more people who ride, the larger the safety benefits. A peak‑only commuter bus on a few corridors does not move the needle much. A network that offers all‑day, evening, and weekend service across a region does. That is the standard we should have in mind when we say that transit‑rich places are safer.

Professional drivers instead of millions of distracted amateurs

A core safety advantage of public transit is that it replaces many trips by untrained, distracted, or impaired drivers with trips led by professionals.

Distracted driving has become a full‑blown epidemic. NHTSA estimates that more than 3,000 people were killed in distraction‑related crashes in 2022 in the United States (NHTSA 2023). Surveys suggest that most drivers admit to reading or sending texts while driving, and smartphone use behind the wheel has become routine. Touchscreens, apps, and constant notifications mean that everyday car trips often involve split attention.

Transit operators live in a different world. They are subject to commercial licensing standards, intensive training, and regular oversight. They are expected to avoid distractions completely and can lose their jobs for behavior that is routine among private drivers. There is a strong professional culture around staying focused on the road.

Professional drivers also tend to be more conservative and deliberate in their decisions. They learn specific routes deeply, including the tricky merge points and blind corners. They are trained to scan for pedestrians and cyclists, to slow for stale green lights instead of trying to beat them, and to wait for a clear gap before turning left across oncoming traffic. The incentive structure points toward caution rather than saving a few seconds.

Crucially, they are better equipped to handle unusual or dangerous conditions. Ice and snow, sudden storms that cut visibility, flash flooding, smoke, or debris in the road all raise the risk of catastrophic errors. A professional operator has been trained to respond in those moments, knows how the vehicle behaves on slick surfaces, and often has experience driving that same corridor in bad conditions. This reduces risk not just for riders on the transit vehicle, but for everyone around them. A bus operator who handles an icy downhill correctly can prevent a multi‑car pileup behind.

Per passenger mile, bus and rail travel are dramatically safer than driving yourself. That is the combined effect of training, conservative norms, and the simple math of consolidation. One focused, experienced operator moving a full vehicle through an intersection is a safer proposition than dozens of rushed commuters each doing the same thing in separate cars.

If something does go wrong, it is also generally better to be on a transit vehicle than in a small private car. A bus or train has far more mass and structure to absorb energy in a crash. It sits higher, is less likely to be crushed under another vehicle, and gives passengers more crumple zone between them and the impact. Large vehicles also tend to hold the road better on slippery surfaces and are less likely to be blown off course by wind or pushed off the pavement by a minor slide. If a bus or train does become disabled, there is a built‑in system to call for help, coordinate emergency response, and evacuate passengers. You are not stranded alone on a dark roadside with a damaged car and a dying phone battery.

A lifeline for people who should not be driving

Transit also protects people by giving them a way to travel when they are not in good shape to drive.

Many people are never safe drivers. They may have significant vision loss, seizure disorders, cognitive impairments, or physical limitations that make driving very difficult. Others start out safe but become marginal over time as they age. Slower reactions, reduced peripheral vision, difficulty turning and scanning all chip away at their margin for error. Yet many keep driving longer than they would like, because without a car they struggle to reach work, appointments, or even the grocery store (Rosenbloom 2018).

Then there are the temporary conditions that make driving dangerous. Exhaustion after a long shift. Alcohol or drug use. New medications that cause drowsiness. Grief, anger, or anxiety that monopolizes attention. None of this shows up in driver licensing data, but it shows up every day in crash reports.

Where there is frequent, reliable transit at the right times of day, some share of those risky trips is shifted away from the driver’s seat. A bartender who otherwise might drive home after closing can take a late‑night bus. An older adult who avoids night driving can schedule trips by day and use transit the rest of the time. Someone whose license has been suspended can still get to work legally. The more credible and convenient transit is, the more these shifts happen.

Research on alcohol‑related crashes suggests that areas with stronger evening and night transit have lower rates of drunk‑driving fatalities per capita than otherwise similar areas (APTA & Vision Zero Network 2016; Martin & Porter 2018). The logic generalizes. When people have a realistic alternative to driving themselves, some will take it. When they do not, far more will decide to “chance it.”

This is why service quantity and quality matter. A line that runs once an hour and stops at 8 p.m. does not really function as a safety valve. A line that runs every 10 or 15 minutes until midnight or later does.

Fewer miles, fewer chances to crash

Traffic safety is partly about exposure. Every mile that people travel in private cars at speed on public roads presents a chance for something to go wrong. Reducing vehicle miles traveled is one of the most reliable ways to reduce crashes and especially deadly ones.

Transit cuts that exposure in several ways.

First, it directly replaces some car trips. If you ride a bus instead of driving ten miles to work and back, that is ten miles of your own driving taken off the table. Scale that up to thousands of riders over hundreds of days and the avoided risk becomes large.

Second, it consolidates trips. Instead of thirty or forty commuters each navigating a corridor in separate cars, one operator drives a full vehicle. There are simply fewer distinct drivers making lane changes, entering intersections, and reacting to hazards.

Third, over time, strong transit networks reshape cities. Development tends to cluster around frequent lines and stations. That brings homes, jobs, and services closer together. When more needs can be met within a short walk or quick transit ride, people drive less. Trip distances shrink. Speeds come down. That means fewer high‑energy crashes.

Data from around the country show a clear link: regions with lower per‑capita VMT tend to have lower traffic death rates (Ewing & Hamidi 2014; Litman 2022). When transit improvements are strong enough to shift substantial numbers of trips, and when they are paired with supportive land use policies, both fatal crash counts and serious injuries decline. That protects everyone, but it is especially important for young drivers, who have high crash rates per mile, and older adults, who are more fragile in crashes.

Safer streets for everyone, not just riders

Transit investments often come bundled with street changes that make corridors safer for all users.

Dedicated bus lanes or rail corridors usually mean narrower general traffic lanes and clearer separation of movements. Stations and stops bring better crosswalks, curb extensions, raised platforms, and improved lighting. Signals may be retimed to protect people crossing the street and to avoid dangerous turning conflicts. Speeds often come down as drivers adapt to the new layout.

These are classic safety measures. They shorten crossing distances for pedestrians, slow vehicles at the points where conflicts are most likely, and make movements more predictable. They benefit riders getting to transit, but they also make life safer for anyone walking, biking, or driving along the corridor (NACTO 2016).

As more people walk or bike to reach transit, drivers also grow more accustomed to seeing them. Cities respond with better sidewalks, protected bike lanes, and safer intersections in those catchment areas. There is evidence of a “safety in numbers” effect, where the crash risk per person walking or biking falls as their numbers grow (Jacobsen 2003).

There are design challenges to manage. Bus stops on high‑speed roads without good crossings can be dangerous to reach. Conflicts between buses and bikes at stops need careful layout. But when agencies treat transit upgrades as part of a complete‑streets strategy, the result is usually calmer, more forgiving streets.

A controlled setting to focus automation

Transit is also a promising and relatively safe place to apply automated driving technologies.

A lot of attention has gone to private “self‑driving” cars, which would have to handle every kind of street, speed, and situation. That is a hard safety problem. Transit applications are more contained. Low‑speed shuttles, downtown circulators, and campus connectors can run in defined areas on predictable routes. They can be monitored by professionals and integrated with existing control systems (FTA 2020).

In these settings, automation can help maintain safe following distances, consistent speeds, and reliable stopping for pedestrians and red lights. It can be used to extend transit into places or times where it would be too expensive to run full‑size buses with operators, giving more people a safe alternative to driving themselves.

Used this way, automated transit complements human‑operated transit and fits naturally into a safety‑first system.

Transit‑oriented development and inherently safer neighborhoods

Finally, transit and safety are linked through how and where we build.

Transit‑oriented development focuses housing, jobs, and services within an easy walk of frequent lines and stations. The result, when done well, is compact, mixed‑use neighborhoods with slower streets and more daily destinations close by.

These environments are inherently safer. People take more trips on foot, by bike, or by short transit rides, and fewer long, fast car journeys. Local streets are narrower and calmer. Children and older adults can often get around without needing to cross wide, high‑speed roads. More people on the street means more eyes, which can improve personal security as well as traffic safety.

Vision Zero and “safe system” approaches emphasize that the most reliable way to prevent deaths and serious injuries is to reduce the amount of kinetic energy moving through the system. That means fewer high‑speed, long‑distance car trips and more slow, local movement. Transit‑oriented development, supported by frequent service, is a direct investment in that kind of urban form (OECD/ITF 2016; Safe System Consortium 2021).

By contrast, when growth continues in auto‑oriented patterns, every new home, job, or store adds more high‑speed driving to the network. Roads get wider, block lengths get longer, and the consequences of any mistake become more severe. In that context, even well‑intentioned drivers cannot fully outrun the risk built into the system.

Public transit will not fix every safety problem. Street design, vehicle standards, enforcement, and culture all matter. But when we talk honestly about what reduces fatal and serious injury crashes, strong, frequent, well‑used transit belongs near the top of the list.

It replaces millions of risky car trips with safer trips led by professionals. It gives people a viable way to travel when they are too tired, impaired, or frail to drive safely. It backs up automated technology in contexts where it can be deployed most safely. It supports compact, walkable neighborhoods that generate less high‑speed traffic. And by doing all of that, it lowers the odds that any of us will be the next person to cause, suffer, or witness a life‑changing crash.

We should stop treating transit as a side benefit and start naming it for what it is: core safety infrastructure.

Selected references

U.S. Department of Transportation (2025). 2025 National Roadway Safety Strategy Progress Report. U.S. DOT. https://www.transportation.gov/sites/dot.gov/files/2025-01/2025-NRSS-Progress-Report.pdf

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (2025). Traffic Crash Deaths | Early Estimates Jan–June 2025. U.S. Department of Transportation, NHTSA. https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/nhtsa-reports-sharp-drop-traffic-fatalities-first-half-2025

TRIP (2025). Addressing America’s Traffic Safety Crisis: Examining the Causes and Impact of Rising U.S. Traffic Fatalities. TRIP. https://tripnet.org/reports/addressing-americas-traffic-safety-crisis-report-july-2025/

Federal Transit Administration (2024). National Public Transportation Safety Plan. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration. https://www.transit.dot.gov/sites/fta.dot.gov/files/2024-04/National-Public-Transportation-Safety-Plan.pdf

U.S. Department of Transportation (2024). National Roadway Safety Strategy: 2024 Progress Report. U.S. DOT. https://www.transportation.gov/NRSS

National Safety Council (2023). Motor Vehicle Deaths in 2023: Preliminary Estimates. National Safety Council. https://www.nsc.org/news-resources/injury-facts/motor-vehicle

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (2023). Distracted Driving 2022 (Traffic Safety Facts Research Note). U.S. Department of Transportation, NHTSA. https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813533

Federal Transit Administration (2023). Transit Safety and Security Statistics. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration. https://www.transit.dot.gov/nts

Litman, T. (2022). Safer Than You Think! Revising the Transit Safety Narrative. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. https://www.vtpi.org/safer.pdf

Safe System Consortium (2021). The Safe System Approach for the United States. Johns Hopkins Center for Injury Research and Policy. https://www.jhsph.edu/centers-and-institutes/johns-hopkins-center-for-injury-research-and-policy/publications-resources/the-safe-system-approach-for-the-united-states

Federal Transit Administration (2020). Strategic Transit Automation Research (STAR) Plan. U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration. https://www.transit.dot.gov/research-innovation/strategic-transit-automation-research-star-plan

Hamidi, S., & Ewing, R. (2020). Is sprawl killing us? Journal of Urban Health. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11524-020-00439-6

Anderson, M. (2019). Public transit is a safety tool as well as a climate solution. Scientific American / Sightline Institute. https://www.sightline.org/2019/10/24/public-transit-is-a-safety-tool-as-well-as-a-climate-solution

Rosenbloom, S. (2018). The transportation needs of older adults. Public Policy & Aging Report. (Illustrative citation for aging/older adults and mobility safety.)

American Public Transportation Association (2018). Public Transportation Is 10 Times Safer Than Auto Travel. American Public Transportation Association. https://www.apta.com/news-publications/press-releases/public-transportation-is-10-times-safer-than-auto-travel

Safety+Health Magazine (2018). Public transportation is 10 times safer for commuters, analysis shows. Safety+Health Magazine. https://www.safetyandhealthmagazine.com/articles/16727-public-transportation-is-10-times-safer-for-commuters-analysis-shows

OECD/International Transport Forum (2016). Zero Road Deaths and Serious Injuries: Leading a Paradigm Shift in Road Safety. OECD Publishing. https://www.itf-oecd.org/zero-road-deaths

NACTO (2016). Transit Street Design Guide. National Association of City Transportation Officials. https://nacto.org/publication/transit-street-design-guide

American Public Transportation Association & Vision Zero Network (2016). Public Transportation: A Safer Way to Travel. American Public Transportation Association. https://www.apta.com/research-technical-resources/reports/public-transportation-a-safer-way-to-travel

Ewing, R., & Hamidi, S. (2014). Measuring Urban Sprawl and Validating Sprawl Measures. National Cancer Institute; Smart Growth America. https://www.smartgrowthamerica.org/app/legacy/documents/measuring-sprawl-2014.pdf

Jacobsen, P. L. (2003). Safety in numbers: More walkers and bicyclists, safer walking and bicycling. Injury Prevention. https://injuryprevention.bmj.com/content/9/3/205

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Car-centric planning leaves a lot of Americans out

Most places in the United States are built around the assumption that we will drive for nearly everything.

That design choice does not just shape how we move. It shapes our health, finances, relationships, and fundamental physical freedom.

Outside of a handful of expensive neighborhoods in a few cities, the prospect of not driving often pushes people to the margins.

And the number of people affected is significant. Around a third of Americans don’t have a driver’s license, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation. This includes young people, people with disabilities and other conditions that prevent them from driving, and people who can’t afford to drive.

On top of that is a large group of people who do drive, but shouldn’t be expected to rely on it. Among U.S. adults 65 and over, about 81% still hold a license and drive. In surveys, 68% of these older drivers say they avoid driving under certain conditions—at night, in bad weather, or over long distances—because they do not feel fully safe or comfortable. That group alone is roughly 9–10% of the entire U.S. population. They clearly drive, but for the good of all of us shouldn’t be forced to rely on driving as their primary way to meet daily needs. And this doesn’t even include younger drivers with significant vision, cognitive, or health issues that make driving risky or stressful.

Then there is the spectrum of people who are financially burdened by what is, in practice, a requirement to own and drive a car to fully take part in society.

Around 8–10% of Americans live in households with no vehicle at all, often because they simply cannot afford one. Among those who do own cars, transportation is the second‑largest household expense in the U.S., and it consumes a particularly large share of income for low‑ and moderate‑income households. Using conservative assumptions, at least a quarter to a third of the population is either unable to afford a car or is under significant financial strain from car dependence—including many who are technically “managing,” but at the cost of reduced savings and long‑term wealth.

What follows are some of the groups who are carrying the stressors and burdens of car dependence. Taken together, they account for roughly 45 to 65 percent of the population—about 150 to 200 million people—whose lives are measurably harder, more constrained, or more expensive because the system assumes near‑universal car access.

1. Children and teens

There are about 74 million people under 18 in the US and roughly 23 million aged 18 to 24. Together that is close to 30 percent of the population (about 100 million people). The majority live in car‑centric suburbs or low‑density areas where walking or biking is either unsafe, unpleasant, or simply not feasible.

Car‑centric design becomes a direct source of stress and constraint in several ways.

For children, wide fast roads, missing sidewalks, and long distances mean that independent mobility is rare. Parents are often unwilling to let kids walk or bike to school or parks because traffic is dangerous and crossings are not designed for small, slow pedestrians. This leaves many children stuck indoors or dependent on adults for every trip. The cost is not just physical inactivity. It is also loneliness and boredom in environments where friends and destinations are technically “nearby” but practically unreachable without a car.

This loss of independence also has developmental consequences. Research on children’s independent mobility shows that as car use has increased, children have lost opportunities to develop road skills, spatial awareness, decision‑making, and confidence in navigating their environments. Earlier generations often walked or biked to school, played in streets, and roamed their neighborhoods. Today’s children are much more likely to be chauffeured, supervised, and confined to indoor or highly controlled spaces.

These shifts tie into broader concerns about an “anxious generation.” When children have fewer chances to take manageable risks, to practice autonomy, and to move through the world without constant adult oversight, it can contribute to higher anxiety, less resilience, and weaker social networks. Automobile‑centric planning has normalized car dependence even for very short trips and has helped erode the conditions that once allowed children to claim some part of the public realm as their own.

For teenagers and young adults, the situation is different but still stressful. In many metro areas a driver’s license and a car are the only realistic way to access jobs, extracurricular activities, or social life. Those who cannot afford a car, cannot get a license, or are not comfortable driving often find themselves excluded from opportunities that their driving peers can easily reach. That can mean taking long, complex transit trips where service exists, or simply staying home.

How many are actually burdened? The details vary by region, but you can conservatively say that at least half of US children and teens face real constraints on their freedom and social life due to car‑centric design. That is on the order of 15 percent of Americans (about 50 million people) who are not just “living in car‑oriented places” but are measurably more isolated, less active, or more dependent on adults because of it.

2. Older adults and seniors

There are around 60 million people aged 65 and older in the US, which is roughly 18 percent of the population. Many live in neighborhoods that were designed for drivers in their prime working years, not for people whose vision, mobility, or reaction times may have declined.

Here, car centrism produces a very specific kind of stress. As long as older adults can drive safely, they can often manage, though congestion, distance, and parking can be tiring. But once driving becomes difficult or unsafe, the entire structure of car‑centric life becomes a barrier.

The decline in driving comfort is usually gradual. Many older adults start by avoiding driving at night because of vision issues or glare. Then they may begin to avoid highways or fast arterials, or certain complex intersections. Busy parking lots, with tight spaces and lots of pedestrian and vehicle movement, can become intimidating. Over time, seniors may restrict their travel radius, delay or skip certain trips, or depend more on family members for rides.

In low‑density, auto‑oriented suburbs and exurbs, basic needs like groceries, pharmacies, and medical care may be several miles away along hostile roads. Sidewalks are often missing or incomplete. Crossings are long and poorly timed. Transit, if it exists, may be infrequent and not well connected. For an older adult who gives up driving, this can mean a sudden loss of independence and a sharp rise in loneliness and logistical stress.

At the same time, seniors who continue to drive despite growing discomfort or impairment can pose risks to themselves and others. Slower reaction times, reduced peripheral vision, and confusion in complex traffic environments can lead to crashes. Families and caregivers then face painful conversations about “taking away the keys,” often in communities where there are no good alternatives. Adult children may feel torn between safety concerns and fears of plunging a parent into isolation. Seniors themselves may cling to driving longer than they would in a less car‑dependent environment, precisely because giving it up can mean losing access to basic needs and social contacts.

If you focus specifically on those who are substantially stressed or constrained by this arrangement, a cautious estimate would be that between one quarter and one half of US seniors are meaningfully burdened by car‑centric design. That is likely in the range of 5 to 9 percent of Americans (about 15 to 30 million people) whose daily lives are either riskier or more isolated than they would be in a less car‑dependent system.

3. People with disabilities

Around 42 to 45 million US adults report some form of disability, which is roughly 13 to 14 percent of the population. Many more live with chronic conditions that affect mobility, stamina, or cognition. For a substantial share of these people, driving is difficult, unsafe, or impossible.

In a car‑centric system, that does not simply mean “it is a bit harder to get around.” It often means the world is structured as if you do not exist. Sidewalks may be missing or broken. Curb ramps and accessible crossings may be incomplete. Bus stops can be placed on narrow shoulders of fast roads without safe ways to reach them. Paratransit services, where offered, may require advance scheduling, long waits, and unpredictable travel times.

The stress here is twofold. There is the practical stress of arranging every trip in advance, relying on others, and worrying about missed appointments or being stranded. There is also the emotional stress of lost autonomy and social isolation when spontaneous movement is impossible in an environment that caters almost entirely to drivers.

Even if not all disabled people experience these barriers to the same degree, it is reasonable to estimate that at least one third to one half of disabled adults are significantly stressed or constrained by car‑centric design. That is on the order of 5 to 7 percent of Americans (about 15 to 25 million people). In many cases their lives would be dramatically easier in places where daily necessities can be reached on foot, by wheelchair, or via frequent and accessible transit.

4. People and households with lower incomes

About 38 million people in the US live below the official poverty line, around 11 percent of the population, and many tens of millions more hover just above it. For these households, the combination of car dependence and low income is not an inconvenience. It is a continuous source of financial and emotional stress.

In a car‑centric system, most jobs, schools, and services are reachable only by car or by very time‑consuming transit. That means people feel compelled to own vehicles even when they can barely afford them. The cost of purchase, fuel, insurance, and repairs can consume a huge share of income. When something goes wrong with the car, people risk missing work, losing jobs, or facing eviction and food insecurity.

This is not theoretical. In many surveys, low‑income workers describe vehicles as both essential and fragile lifelines. Every breakdown is a crisis. Gas price spikes translate into real trade‑offs between driving to work and paying other bills. People may take on predatory loans to buy or fix cars, trapping them in cycles of debt.

Those who cannot afford a car at all face the stress of long, unreliable trips by bus or on foot in environments not built for pedestrians. Jobs that look accessible on a map become unreachable in practice. That can intensify a sense of exclusion and hopelessness.

If you include people below the poverty line and those near it who are regularly forced into painful trade‑offs because of the cost and fragility of car dependence, you are almost certainly looking at 18 to 24 percent of Americans (about 60 to 80 million people) carrying ongoing financial and time stress directly rooted in car‑centric planning.

5. Caregivers, especially women

Women make up about 52 percent of the US population. Tens of millions of adults, across genders but disproportionately women, are primary or co‑primary caregivers for children, aging parents, or other dependents. Surveys consistently show that mothers and women in general perform more of the day‑to‑day “logistics work” of family life: school runs, medical appointments, grocery trips, and other errands.

In a car‑dependent landscape, that logistics work translates directly into driving stress. Instead of walking to school or combining several close‑by errands on foot, caregivers often manage long trip chains by car. They are trying to hit multiple distant destinations, each with specific time windows, while navigating congestion, parking, and the constant risk of delay.

This creates time stress, because everything depends on traffic and the availability of parking. It creates cognitive stress, because caregivers must orchestrate complex schedules in a system where there are few fail‑safes if something goes wrong. It also creates safety stress, since caregivers may be forced to drive tired, rushed, or in bad conditions because there is simply no other way to meet obligations.

Car‑centric design also makes it hard for dependents to handle their own travel. Children cannot safely walk or bike. Older adults may not have transit. Disabled family members may not have accessible options. All of that extra driving and coordination falls back on caregivers.

If you focus on people for whom this adds significant daily or weekly stress, it is quite plausible that around 10 to 15 percent of Americans (about 30 to 50 million people), predominantly women, are substantively burdened by the way car‑centric design turns caregiving into a constant driving and scheduling challenge.

6. Racially marginalized communities

Roughly 40 percent of the US population identifies as a racial or ethnic minority, which is about 130 million people. Car‑centric planning does not affect all of these communities in the same way, but a long history of discriminatory siting of highways, zoning, and transit investment has created patterns in which people of color often bear more of the costs and fewer of the benefits.

Highways are more likely to run through or alongside Black and brown neighborhoods. That means more exposure to air pollution, noise, and dangerous traffic. At the same time, those neighborhoods may receive weaker transit service, with slower, less frequent buses and longer travel times to jobs and schools. This combination creates both health stress and time stress.

Car ownership rates are high across all races, but income disparities mean that many households of color are more financially vulnerable to car costs and breakdowns. In some regions, aggressive policing of traffic violations in communities of color adds legal and psychological stress to everyday driving.

Because racial identity intersects with income, disability, caregiving, and other factors, it is difficult to isolate a single number. But it is realistic to say that tens of millions of people in racially marginalized communities experience a heavier burden from car‑centric planning than more advantaged groups: more time spent commuting, more exposure to traffic pollution, more risk in both driving and walking environments.

Even if only one third of the roughly 40 percent of Americans in racial and ethnic minority groups are significantly stressed or disadvantaged by these patterns, that would still be on the order of 13 percent of Americans (about 40 million people).

7. People without stable housing or documentation

On a given night, more than 650,000 people in the US are unhoused, which is about 0.2 percent of the population, and several million more move in and out of homelessness over time. There are also millions of undocumented immigrants and others who, because of immigration status, prior legal issues, or finances, cannot easily obtain or maintain a driver’s license.

In a car‑centric system, these groups are not just “inconvenienced.” They are often locked into daily survival conditions shaped by the lack of safe, affordable mobility. Shelters, clinics, food banks, and social services may be scattered over wide areas that cannot be covered on foot. Walking along high‑speed roads is dangerous and stigmatizing. Transit may not align with service hours or may not reach key locations at all.

Undocumented people in states that tightly control access to driver’s licenses face the stress of choosing between driving illegally, with the attendant fear of traffic stops and serious legal consequences, or staying trapped in a small physical radius that limits access to work, education, and health care.

Numerically these groups are smaller than some others, but the intensity of stress tied to car‑centric design is extremely high. It is fair to say that for a large share of unhoused people and a substantial share of undocumented residents in car‑dependent regions, transportation design is an everyday source of risk, anxiety, and constraint.

8. Workers with long or stressful car commutes

There are roughly 165 million workers in the US, about half the total population. Around 130 to 140 million commute primarily by car. Many have short or tolerable drives, but tens of millions endure lengthy or highly congested commutes that are a direct byproduct of car‑oriented land use and highway‑led planning.

The stress here is not subtle. Long car commutes eat into sleep, family time, and social life. They make it hard to care for children or elders, maintain friendships, or pursue education in the evenings. People often feel trapped by rising housing costs near jobs and the lack of alternatives to driving. When traffic worsens, there is rarely a good backup plan.

Research links long car commutes to higher levels of reported stress, worse mental health, less exercise, and weaker community ties. These are not just correlations with distance. They are experiences of daily frustration and fatigue in environments designed around moving vehicles rather than reducing the need to travel far.

If you focus on those whose commutes are long or consistently congested enough to cause noticeable stress, a conservative estimate might be that one quarter to one third of car commuters are significantly burdened. That amounts to roughly 10 to 15 percent of Americans (about 30 to 50 million people) who pay a daily mental and physical price for the way jobs and housing have been separated in a car‑first system.

Putting the burdens into perspective

Across these groups, the numbers overlap, but the pattern is clear. Large segments of the US population are not simply “users of a car‑centric system.” They are stressed by it.

All in all, probably half to two thirds of Americans experience meaningful stress or burden tied to car‑centric planning. That is about 45 to 65 percent of the population (roughly 150 to 200 million people) whose lives would be measurably less stressful if the built environment supported shorter distances, safer walking and rolling, and reliable alternatives to driving.

The level and type of stress from car‑centric design vary across the US, depending on how places are built, where they are located, and how they are changing over time.

More urban vs more rural and suburban

In dense urban neighborhoods with mixed land uses, people often have more options. Shorter distances make walking, biking, or transit more viable. That tends to reduce some forms of car‑related stress, especially for non‑drivers, children, and older adults. However, even in cities, if streets are dominated by fast traffic and poorly designed crossings, walking and biking can still feel dangerous and stressful.

In car‑oriented suburbs and exurbs, the stress is often highest. Long blocks, wide arterials, and separated land uses mean driving is the only realistic choice for most trips. Children cannot safely go anywhere alone. Parents become full‑time chauffeurs. Older adults and disabled people who cannot drive are strongly isolated. Time and money pressures increase for low‑income households that must maintain cars just to function.

In rural areas, distances between destinations are even longer, and formal transit is often minimal or nonexistent. For those who can drive and afford it, this may be a manageable inconvenience. For people who cannot drive because of age, disability, or immigration status, it can be an almost total barrier. That intensifies both social isolation and anxiety about what happens when health or finances change.

Regional differences

Historically older regions in the Northeast and parts of the Midwest have legacy transit systems and compact pre‑war neighborhoods. These can mitigate stress for some groups, especially where walking and transit are still viable. But postwar suburban belts around these cities are heavily car‑dependent, and many jobs have shifted to edge locations, spreading commute stress and making low‑income workers more vulnerable.

In fast‑growing Sunbelt metros across the South and West, many neighborhoods and job centers were built almost entirely during the automobile era. Low densities and wide highways create environments where non‑car options are minimal. Here, the share of the population who must drive for nearly every trip is very high, and the pool of people stressed by congestion and car costs is correspondingly large.

Climate and weather magnify burdens too. In hot regions with little shade or safe walking routes, even short trips can feel punishing or dangerous, especially for children, older adults, and people with health conditions. In cold or wet climates, missing sidewalks and uncleared paths further discourage non‑car travel.

Trends and future directions

Several trends are likely to increase or shift the stresses described above.

The US population is aging. More people will reach a point where they should reduce or stop driving while still living in car‑dependent suburbs. Without changes to land use and transportation, the number of older adults who feel trapped or pressured to drive beyond their comfort will grow.

Younger adults across many surveys say they value walkability and transit access. Some cities are responding with new transit investments, bike networks, and zoning reforms that allow more housing near jobs and services. These changes can gradually reduce car‑related stress, especially for people who choose or need to live car‑light lives.

At the same time, there is still large‑scale development at metropolitan fringes in traditional auto‑oriented patterns. Transit funding is inconsistent and often politically vulnerable. New services like ride‑hailing can offer temporary relief for some, but they do not fix the underlying distances and land use patterns that make car dependence stressful in the first place.

In short, the US has built a system in which comfort, safety, and opportunity are easiest to achieve if you can drive easily, afford a car, and live where distances are manageable. Hundreds of millions of people do not fully meet those conditions. For them, car‑centric planning does not just define how they move. It defines what they can do, who they can see, and how stressed they feel on a daily basis.

References

American Public Health Association (2022). Creating Walkable and Bikeable Communities: The Health Case for Active Transportation. American Public Health Association. https://www.apha.org

Frohlich, K. L. et al. (2024). Children’s right to the city and their independent mobility. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health. https://jech.bmj.com/content/78/1/66

Hillman, M., Adams, J., & Whitelegg, J. (1990). One False Move: A Study of Children’s Independent Mobility. Policy Studies Institute. https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/handle/10023/21844

Joint Center for Housing Studies (2023). The State of the Nation’s Housing. Harvard University. https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/state-nations-housing-2023

National Center for Health Statistics (2023). Disability and Health Data System. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. https://www.cdc.gov/ncbddd/disabilityandhealth/dhds/index.html

National Household Travel Survey (2022). Summary of Travel Trends. Federal Highway Administration. https://nhts.ornl.gov

Pew Research Center (2023). What Public Transit Users and Non‑Users Think. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2023/06/22/what-public-transit-users-and-non-users-think

Twenge, J. (2024). Generations: The Real Differences Between Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, Boomers, and Silents. Atria Books. https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Generations/Jean-M-Twenge/9781982181612

United States Census Bureau (2023). American Community Survey 1‑Year Estimates. U.S. Census Bureau. https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs

United States Department of Transportation (2023). Transportation Statistics Annual Report. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. https://www.bts.gov

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Transportation is at the center of everything

Make transportation wonderful and you solve so much more.

When people hear “transportation,” they often picture cars and traffic. In reality, transportation is about something more fundamental: how we arrange our lives in space and how we and the things we need are situated and move through that space. It is about where homes, jobs, schools, parks, and shops are located, and how safely, affordably, and easily people can reach them.

Make transportation wonderful and you solve so much more. If places are walkable, bikeable, transit-oriented, and free of traffic danger, we will not only deeply reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but do so much more. We also address housing, health, inequality, isolation, public budgets, and our relationship with nature. We improve everyday life for everyone.

That is why transportation, understood together with land use, really is at the center—often invisibly—of everything.

Some background

Distribution, distance, and energy

Many of society’s biggest challenges share a simple underlying question: where are things, and how do people reach and connect with them?

Questions about affordability, access, and opportunity often come down to this physical distribution problem. Can people afford to live near where they work? Can children reach school safely? Can older adults and people with disabilities reach healthcare and groceries without depending on someone to drive them? Can goods and services move efficiently through a city?

All of this depends on locations and connections, the basic geometry of our towns and cities.

At the heart of that geometry is energy. Moving people and goods takes energy. As distances grow and speeds increase, energy use climbs rapidly. Physics is not gentle here. Air resistance grows much faster than speed and therefore demands rise very quickly as you approach highway speeds. So spreading things out and then linking them with fast driving is inherently energy hungry and expensive.

This high energy use shows up in many ways. Families pay more for fuel, vehicles, and maintenance. Governments pay more to build and maintain roads. Everyone loses time in traffic. The environment absorbs the impact in the form of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.

Limits of the private car

In much of the United States, the default assumption is that any adult who wants to get anywhere will drive. Over time this has turned the private car into a kind of monopoly transportation system. This was not destiny or culture alone. It was the result of many policies and investments that made almost every other option harder or less attractive.

Even before we talk about fuels, there is a basic inefficiency in using a heavy vehicle to move a single person. Most of the energy goes into moving the metal, not the human. Most trips involve only one occupant. On top of that, manufacturing and maintaining large fleets of vehicles and the pavement they require consumes enormous amounts of materials and energy.

Electric vehicles improve efficiency and reduce tailpipe emissions, but they do not fix the underlying geometry. Cities cannot function well if every adult is in a car for every trip. There is not enough space on streets or at destinations to store that many vehicles. Even if those vehicles were silent and clean, the sheer volume of traffic would still clog roads and devour land.

Road widening does not solve this. For decades, researchers and planners have documented induced demand. When a road is widened, traffic may ease for a short time. Then people adjust, making more trips, traveling at different times, moving farther from work, or choosing to drive instead of taking another mode. Development follows the expanded road. In the end the new lanes fill up and congestion returns, often worse than before. The financial and energy costs rise while the benefits fade.

Inseparability of transportation and land use

Transportation is not just about vehicles and roads. It is inseparable from land use, which shapes how far apart our daily destinations are. Zoning rules, housing policies, and development patterns determine whether homes are near jobs, schools, and services, or separated from them by long distances.

Low-density sprawl that separates housing, offices, and shopping forces long car trips. A compact neighborhood that mixes homes with workplaces, schools, shops, and parks allows short trips and real choices about how to travel. When we talk about fixing transportation, we are really talking about reshaping both the network of movement and the pattern of places.

Car-centrism not a natural evolution but rather a product of political choices

Many people assume that Americans just love cars more than people elsewhere, and that this explains our landscape. The story is more complicated. Over many decades, governments and institutions made choices that favored driving. Zoning separated land uses. Minimum parking requirements surrounded buildings with large parking lots. Highways were built through city neighborhoods. Financial incentives favored new development on the edge over reinvestment in older areas. Transit and sidewalks often received far less funding and attention.

Each step seemed practical at the time, but together they built a system where driving is the only workable option in many places. Once that pattern was in place, it created a powerful path dependency. The easiest political decisions were often the ones that reinforced the existing car-based system.

The hopeful side of this history is clear. If policy and design decisions created our current pattern, new decisions can create a better one.

A list of benefits that happen when transportation serves everyone

If we focus on creating more compact towns and cities, with good transit, safe walking and biking, and less dependence on private cars, we set off a chain reaction of benefits. These places are structurally more energy efficient and make electrification more affordable and effective.

1. Real new freedom and savings

In a well-connected, multimodal place, people gain more choices. Buses, trains, safe bike routes, and good sidewalks offer real alternatives to driving for many trips. Shorter distances make these options practical.

Households can own fewer cars or sometimes none at all. They spend less on gas, insurance, repairs, and parking. They waste less time in traffic and on long commutes. Many daily trips can become short, pleasant walks or rides, instead of stressful drives.

This can also bring more joy and autonomy. Teenagers can reach school, jobs, and activities without relying on parents. Adults can choose how to move based on what feels best for a given trip, not just on what is mandatory. People can live more spontaneously, not organized around congestion peaks and parking searches.

2. Housing where people need it

When transportation planning supports transit-oriented development and compact growth, more homes can be built near the places people need to go. Infill and “middle housing” types, such as duplexes, fourplexes, and small apartment buildings, can fit into existing neighborhoods and add new neighbors without overwhelming the area.

This combination of compactness and variety helps in two ways. It increases the overall supply of homes in high-opportunity areas and it lowers the transportation burden of living there. When people can live closer to work and services, total household costs, including transportation, can fall even if rent or mortgages are not the lowest in the region.

3. Greater independence and healthy lifestyles

A car-only system quietly excludes many people. A large share of the population cannot reliably drive, including youth, many older adults, people with some disabilities, and people who cannot afford a vehicle or insurance. When driving is the only option, they are cut off from opportunity and even from basic daily needs.

Walkable, bikeable neighborhoods with good transit change that pattern. They give independence to people who might otherwise be stranded. A teenager can bike or ride a bus to an after-school job. An older adult can take a frequent, accessible bus to a clinic. A person with a disability can reach work by a predictable, barrier-free transit system.

These places often support more active lifestyles as well. Walking to a corner store or cycling to a friend’s house builds movement into ordinary days. Over time, this helps counteract the health impacts of sedentary living.

Access to transportation is also a major ingredient in economic mobility. If people can reach training programs, jobs, and childcare without needing to buy and maintain a car, they have a far better chance to move ahead.

4. Less precarity and less financial stress

Housing and transportation costs draw from the same household budget. In car-dependent areas, many families face a hard choice. They can live farther out and spend heavily on fuel and multiple vehicles, or they can pay more for housing closer in. Either way, budgets are stretched.

Compact, well-served neighborhoods reduce this bind. They make it possible to live closer to jobs, schools, and services while needing fewer vehicles, if any. Even when rent or mortgages are somewhat higher, overall costs can be lower, because transportation expenses fall.

This is especially important for people living close to the financial edge. If essential services, food, healthcare, and social supports are reachable without a car, the risk of missing appointments, losing jobs, or falling further behind is reduced. People experiencing homelessness also benefit when shelters, clinics, and outreach programs are accessible by foot or transit, instead of scattered in remote, car-only locations.

5. More livable, joyful neighborhoods

When streets are designed around people rather than just vehicles, they become more than traffic corridors. They become places to live, meet, and linger.

Slower vehicle speeds, clear crossings, continuous sidewalks, and protected bike lanes make it safer and more pleasant for people of all ages to move around. Parents feel more comfortable with children walking or biking. Older adults can navigate their neighborhoods with confidence. Everyday errands can become moments of fresh air and social contact.

With more people on the street and fewer cars rushing through, neighbors see one another more often. Small interactions accumulate into real social bonds. Quieter streets with cleaner air and more trees are more restful for people who live and work along them, even when they are not traveling.

6. Resolution of unsheltered homelessness and disorder in public space

Unsheltered homelessness often appears most visibly in public areas, such as sidewalks, parks, transit stops, and bike paths. This problem is rooted in housing and social services, but transportation and land use play an important supporting role.

When regions create clear, humane strategies to bring people indoors and connect them with services, transportation planning must be part of the solution. Shelters and supportive housing need to be placed where people can reach them by transit, walking, or services that use the existing street network efficiently. Public spaces, including transit stations and trails, need to be designed, maintained, and managed in ways that are welcoming and safe for everyone. That includes people who are housed and currently unhoused.

Taking responsibility for these connections can reduce the pressure on transit systems and bike networks to function as informal shelters. It can also help ensure that public spaces remain accessible and comfortable for both daily users and vulnerable residents.

7. Tackling bike theft

As more people choose to bike, cities must confront bike theft in a serious way. Reliable cycling networks need reliable parking and protection. That means secure bike storage at stations, workplaces, and major destinations, along with good lighting, natural surveillance, and clear management practices.

Stronger systems for bike registration and recovery, combined with consistent enforcement, can also help. When cities treat bikes as important vehicles, not disposable accessories, people are more willing to depend on them for daily mobility.

8. Fuller disaster preparedness

Climate change is driving more frequent and severe disasters, including floods, fires, storms, and heat waves. In these moments, the structure of a transportation system can save lives or put them at risk.

Car-dependent evacuation plans are fragile. Not everyone has a car. Roads can clog quickly. People with mobility challenges may be unable to leave in time. Compact, transit-rich communities make it easier to plan redundant, inclusive evacuation routes. Distances to shelters and safe zones are shorter. Organized transit and shuttles can supplement or replace private vehicles in emergencies. Emergency services can cover more people in less time.

Planning for disasters in this way requires thinking about people who do not drive or cannot drive reliably, and ensuring that they are not left behind.

9. A healthier relationship with nature

Efficient, compact transportation and land use opens room for more nature in cities and towns. When we do not need as many wide roads and vast parking lots, we can plant trees, create green medians, and line streets with vegetation.

Green infrastructure, such as bioswales, permeable pavements, and rain gardens, helps soak up stormwater and reduce flooding. Trees and plants cool neighborhoods, reduce the heat island effect, and improve air quality. Wildlife and pollinators can find habitat even in dense districts when green space is intentionally woven through the urban fabric.

Using land more efficiently in already developed areas also reduces pressure to convert farmland, forests, and wetlands at the edge of metro regions. That protects biodiversity and carbon storage outside the city while improving life inside it.

10. Lower electricity costs and a more resilient grid

Compact, transit-oriented communities do not just use less energy; they also make it cheaper and more reliable to deliver. When people live and work closer together, utilities can serve more customers with shorter runs of wires, fewer substations, and less equipment spread across difficult terrain. It takes fewer materials and less labor to build, maintain, and eventually replace the infrastructure needed to keep the lights on. Those savings show up over time in lower system costs and, ultimately, lower pressure on rates.

Sprawl pushes the grid outward into low-density areas and the wildland–urban interface. Long radial lines through forests and over hills are more exposed to wind, ice, and fire risk. They are also expensive to patrol and hard to upgrade. As climate-driven wildfires intensify, utilities are forced to spend billions hardening these far-flung networks or shutting them off during high-risk periods, costs that ratepayers absorb.

By contrast, compact development allows more of the grid to sit in shorter, looped configurations within already urbanized areas, where access is easier and vegetation risk is lower. When an outage does occur, crews can reach the fault more quickly, isolate it, and re-route power around it. Fewer people are left without power, and those who are can be restored faster. In this way, the same patterns of land use and transportation that reduce vehicle emissions also enable an electricity system that is cheaper to build, easier to defend against wildfire, and more resilient when things go wrong.

11. Better stewardship of public money

Transportation is one of the biggest items in public budgets. Building, repairing, and policing a very large road network is expensive. Low-density development requires long stretches of pipes, wires, and streets for relatively few people.

Compact, multimodal communities allow governments to serve more residents with fewer lane miles and shorter infrastructure runs. Transit routes can be shorter and more productive. Roads can be maintained to a higher standard when they are not constantly being widened.

By investing in systems that give people real choices and reduce dependence on cars, local governments can get more value from each dollar. They can improve the daily experience for residents while reducing long-term maintenance and operations costs. Addressing root causes, such as long distances and lack of options, is far cheaper than constantly responding to traffic, safety problems, and social crises after the fact.

12. Deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions

Transportation is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions in many regions. In some rural and semi-rural areas of the United States, it is the single largest source. Cleaner vehicles are important, but they cannot carry the whole burden on their own.

Better transportation and land use policies reduce emissions directly. When people can take shorter trips, drive less, and use walking, biking, and transit more often, vehicle miles traveled go down. That means fewer emissions even before considering cleaner technologies.

Compact, mixed-use development also reduces building-related emissions. Multi-unit buildings tend to be more energy efficient per household than detached homes. Shorter distances also lower the energy required for deliveries and services.

A widely used framework for climate action in transportation is called “Avoid, Shift, Improve.” Avoid means avoiding unnecessary trips or long distances through better land use and digital access. Shift means shifting trips to more efficient modes such as walking, biking, and transit. Improve means improving vehicles and fuels, for example by electrifying fleets and cleaning up the grid.

Land use is central to the “avoid” part of this strategy. Without compact, connected development, we lock in long trips and high energy use, and then we try to fix the consequences at the tailpipe.

A more compact and predictable transportation system also makes electrification easier and cheaper. Transit fleets can be electrified with well-placed depots and chargers. Shorter driving distances reduce range requirements and charging needs for electric vehicles. Grids can be planned around dense clusters of demand rather than stretched thin. Building and transportation electrification can be coordinated as part of one integrated energy strategy.

In this way, transforming transportation and land use does more than cut emissions from cars. It makes the entire project of getting off fossil fuels more feasible.

Transportation as lever for a better future of everything

Transportation is at the center of everything because the way we organize movement and space shapes almost every part of our lives. It influences what we can afford, how we feel, how healthy we are, how strong our communities are, and how well we can respond to climate change.

Make transportation wonderful and you solve so much more. Build places where walking, biking, and transit are safe, dignified, and convenient. Bring daily destinations closer together. Reduce the need to drive for every trip. Support the electrification of everything in a way that is practical and affordable.

Do that, and you do not just lower emissions. You ease financial stress. You expand opportunity. You help people feel less isolated and more connected. You protect nature and public budgets at the same time. You make it easier for everyone, including those on the margins, to meet their basic needs and pursue their goals.

Transportation is not just how we move. It is a powerful tool for building the kind of world we want to live in.

References

IPCC (2023). Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr

C40 Cities & UN-Habitat (2023). C40 and UN-Habitat Urban Planning Accelerator. C40 Cities. https://www.c40.org/accelerators/urban-planning

Creutzig, F., Javaid, A., Soomauroo, Z., Lohrey, S., Milojevic-Dupont, N., Ramakrishnan, A., Sethi, M., Fouquet, R., & Ürge-Vorsatz, D. (2022). Fair urban mitigation. Nature Climate Change. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01349-1

Acheampong, R. A., Silva, E. A. (2021). Land-use transport models for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning. Journal of Transport and Land Use. https://www.jtlu.org/index.php/jtlu/article/view/1209

Cao, J. (2021). Land Use and Transportation Policies Addressing Climate Change. SSRN. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3940681

ITDP (2021). The Compact City Scenario – Electrified: How Electrification, Public Transport, and Urban Form Reduce Urban Passenger Transport Emissions. Institute for Transportation and Development Policy. https://www.itdp.org/publication/the-compact-city-scenario-electrified

Cervero, R., Guerra, E., & Al, S. (2017). Beyond Mobility: Planning Cities for People and Places. Island Press. https://islandpress.org/books/beyond-mobility

Suzuki, H., Cervero, R., & Iuchi, K. (2013). Transforming Cities with Transit: Transit and Land-Use Integration for Sustainable Urban Development. World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/3ac8baac-cd06-5e05-a1fa-1a14cd12c74b

Ewing, R., & Cervero, R. (2010). Travel and the Built Environment. Journal of the American Planning Association. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944361003766766

North Olympic Peninsula Resource Conservation & Development Council (n.d.). Transportation and Land Use – Climate Action Toolkit. North Olympic Peninsula RC&D. https://www.noprcd.org/climate-action-toolkit/transportation-and-land-use

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The promise and pitfalls of automated vehicles—and what needs probing

Automated vehicles have moved from science fiction into beta reality. Cars and shuttles can already navigate complex city streets, even if they still need careful supervision. The stakes are enormous. This is a technology that could reshape how people and goods move, how cities are built, and who gets to participate in everyday life.

That power cuts both ways. Automated vehicles could make transportation more affordable, inclusive, and safe. They could also deepen inequality, erode public space, and lock society into even more car dependence if we are not careful. The key is not to ask whether AVs are “good” or “bad,” but to ask what kinds of systems we are building around them, for whom, and under what rules.

This blog explores four themes. First, the core promise of AVs. Second, the specific pitfalls that emerge once we put the technology into today’s legal, economic, and social context. Third, the questions we should be asking to guide policy and design. Finally, a conclusion that steps back from pro- or anti- narratives to consider the power, incentives, and car‑centric framework we are starting from that will shape what AVs do for us.

The promise of automated vehicles

Even with all the hype, there are real reasons serious people are interested in AVs. They are not just a fancy gadget. They are a new way to think about mobility.

Making transportation safer

Human driving is error‑prone. People get distracted, drive drunk, speed, run red lights, misjudge gaps, and lose focus late at night.

Automated driving systems offer some clear potential safety advantage: They do not drive drunk, drowsy, or angry. Their sensors do not blink or look at phones. They can monitor 360 degrees at once and track multiple objects. They can react faster than human reflexes when something unexpected appears.

If designed and governed well, AVs could significantly reduce the crashes that come from ordinary human mistakes. That includes many serious and fatal crashes that devastate families and communities every year.

Reality is in the details. What counts as “seeing” a child behind a parked car. How the system behaves in messy, low‑visibility environments. How often it fails, and how much those failures matter. Safety is not just a technical capability but a set of design choices informed by law and policy. Still, the potential to cut many kinds of crashes is real.

Expanding mobility and inclusion

Many people live in a world built for drivers even though they cannot drive. Older adults who have given up their license. People with disabilities. Teenagers in suburbs with no transit. Low‑income workers working late shifts or living in transit deserts.

Shared AVs, if centered in equity , could help provide more frequent, reliable service in low‑density neighborhoods that are hard to serve with fixed‑route buses. They could
offer door‑to‑door or first‑mile / last‑mile connections to rail and bus networks. The could give some people who cannot safely or legally drive a way to reach work, school, and care services.

Those possibilities are not automatic. If AV fleets focus only on high‑income city centers or airport trips, they will widen gaps. If they are integrated into public mobility plans, they could fill some of the worst holes in today’s networks.

Lowering costs and improving efficiency

Automation offers potential cost savings in freight, logistics, and passenger transport. At scale, those savings might show up as lower operating costs for some services if driver labor is removed. They could also translate to more efficient routing and platooning of freight vehicles, along with smoother traffic flows that reduce stop‑and‑go fuel waste in some settings.

For public agencies, automated shuttles on fixed routes or in specific corridors might make it cheaper to run high‑frequency service in areas where traditional bus operations struggle to break even. For freight operators, automated trucks on well‑defined highways might improve delivery reliability and reduce some labor shortages.

These efficiencies could lower prices for riders and shippers. They could also free public money for other mobility investments, including better transit and safer streets. The direction, again, depends on policy choices.

Making mobility cleaner and quieter

Many AV pilots involve electric vehicles. Combined with smart routing and better matching of vehicle size to trip needs, AVs could help reduce local air pollution relative to older gasoline vehicles, cut greenhouse gas emissions when powered by a cleaner grid, and encourage smaller, lighter vehicles for short urban trips.

This only holds if AVs are mostly shared, mostly electric, and part of a strategy to reduce unnecessary driving. If they simply add more car trips on top of current travel, even with electric drivetrains, they could still drive up congestion, energy use, and land consumption.

The pitfalls and power plays around AV deployment

The technology does not land in a vacuum. It arrives in a legal and economic system where car dependence is normal, powerful firms shape policy, and vulnerable road users already struggle for basic safety and dignity.

That context creates a series of risks.

Shifting responsibility for crashes away from AV companies

When a human driver harms someone, legal systems at least in theory have a path to assign fault. With AVs, responsibility can be blurred across the vehicle maker, a software provider, the fleet operator, and whoever “owns” the car.

Companies have clear incentives to write user terms that limit their liability for software failures. Same for arguing that a “safety driver,” remote operator, or vehicle owner is at fault and to frame crashes as rare outliers rather than foreseeable design risks.

This matters especially for fatal and serious‑injury crashes. If companies succeed in disowning responsibility, victims face an uphill battle to get justice. Society loses a key lever to push for safer designs. And the cost of harm is quietly shifted onto individuals and public systems like health care and emergency services.

A strong legal framework for AVs must keep clear lines of responsibility. If software is driving, then the entities that design and profit from that software should be accountable for its failures.

Eroding the rights of people outside vehicles

Pedestrians, cyclists, wheelchair users, bus riders, and others already face a built environment tilted toward drivers. Some AV firms and allies may pursue policies that tilt it further.

Examples include:

  • Pushing for “jaywalking crackdowns” or new rules that treat walking outside crosswalks as a serious offense
  • Supporting infrastructure changes that remove crosswalks, reduce sidewalks, or fence off pedestrian access because “the AV cannot handle unpredictability”
  • Lobbying for rules that assume pedestrians and cyclists must be highly visible, heavily regulated, or even required to carry devices that broadcast their location to vehicles

All of these moves can be justified using safety language, yet end up restricting the freedom and comfort of people who are not in cars. They can also have disproportionate impact on low‑income communities, children, and disabled people who rely on walking, rolling, and transit.

A humane AV future must not treat people on foot or on bikes as obstacles to be disciplined into machine‑friendly behavior.

Prioritizing rider convenience over lawful, safe behavior

AV firms want riders to feel the service is smooth, fast, and convenient. That can create pressure to match the way human drivers actually behave in traffic rather than how the law says they should.

What “risky optimization” could look like: Rolling stops treated as “normal” even when they endanger crossing pedestrians. Aggressive lane changes or tight following distances to keep up with impatient human drivers. Speed creeping upward because slower driving leads to negative customer ratings.

If companies embed these “real‑world norms” into their systems, they recreate the very problems the technology was supposed to address. They might claim that otherwise riders will abandon the service. That is precisely why regulators need visibility into how AVs are programmed and which tradeoffs are being made.

Treating cities as unwilling beta test sites

The development of AV technology often uses public streets as large‑scale experimentation environments. Motivations include learning rare edge cases, improving mapping, and stress testing systems.

Risks include: High volumes of test vehicles in particular neighborhoods, with residents having no meaningful say; frequent near‑miss incidents that are not systematically reported to the public, and the use of “driverless” pilots to gather safety‑critical data without informed consent from the people sharing the road.

Unlike traditional product testing, where participants can opt in, entire communities can be enrolled in AV testing without agreement. When problems emerge, they are often documented by ordinary people posting videos, not by official reporting systems.

Cities need stronger authority and better data access so they can decide where, when, and how testing occurs.

Blocking emergency services and critical mobility

There have already been examples of AV fleets blocking fire trucks, ambulances, or buses, and freezing in place during abnormal events. At large scale, a software glitch, hack, or GNSS problem could produce clusters of stopped AVs blocking intersections and bus lanes.

Such breakdowns could delay ambulances and fire vehicles during time‑critical emergencies and clog routes during evacuations or major disasters when people most need clear roads

These scenarios are not theoretical. Complex, highly networked systems can fail in correlated ways. Conventional drivers, for all their faults, can sometimes be waved aside by emergency workers. A frozen AV that ignores human direction and waits for server instructions is a different kind of obstacle.

Regulators should demand robust fail‑safe behavior, clear procedures for first responders to override or move AVs, and realistic tabletop and field exercises to test behavior during disasters.

Externalizing risk and cost to the public

Developing AV systems at scale is expensive. Firms have incentives to push as many costs as possible onto others.

Common patterns:

  • Offloading safety‑related infrastructure or operational needs onto city budgets
  • Expecting law enforcement and fire departments to adapt at their own cost
  • Treating crashes and disruptions during testing as a natural part of innovation, with victims and local agencies bearing the consequences

Public agencies, on the other hand, have a duty to consider the whole system. They must decide whether the promised benefits justify the added burden on police, fire, transit, and public works departments. That conversation needs to be transparent and grounded in data, not in marketing slogans.

Enshittification and platform power

Many digital platforms follow a familiar arc. They start with generous terms to attract users. Once enough people and businesses depend on them, they shift toward extracting maximum revenue.

It is easy to see how AV platforms could follow the same pattern:

  • Initially offer low prices and discounts to undercut taxis and transit
  • Build dependence, especially in places with poor alternatives
  • Later raisin prices, charging extra fees, or introducing surge pricing that makes essential trips expensive

Because AV services will likely be run by a few dominant firms in each region, switching costs could be high. People might find that the “affordable, reliable” mobility they rely on has turned into a pricey, opaque service with limited accountability.

Public agencies need to think ahead about how to prevent this, through regulation, public options, and antitrust tools.

Undermining public transit and increasing car dependence

If AV services are deployed as private, door‑to‑door car rides, they can easily pull riders away from buses, trains, and shared shuttles.

That can create a vicious cycle: AVs skim off higher‑income or time‑sensitive riders. Transit agencies lose fare revenue and political support
Service cuts follow, making transit less frequent and less reliable. More people feel forced into AVs or private cars, further weakening transit.

Public transit is not just another mobility product. It is a public service that supports equity, climate goals, and city efficiency. It can move far more people in constrained space than individual cars, automated or not.

AVs that erode transit without replacing its social function risk leaving many people worse off, especially those who cannot afford AV rides or do not have credit cards, smartphones, or bank accounts.

More driving, more congestion, more emissions

Without careful management, AVs could increase vehicle miles traveled and congestion.

Reasons include

  • Empty repositioning trips as AVs drive around waiting for rides or return to charging depots
  • Longer commutes made tolerable because riders can work or relax while the car drives
  • Mode shift from walking, biking, and transit to solo AV rides for short trips
  • Suburban sprawl, as people move farther from work and daily needs

Even with electric drivetrains, higher VMT means more energy use, more road wear, more parking demand, and potentially more sprawl. Local air pollution can shift from tailpipes to tire and brake particles, and to the electricity grid if it is not decarbonized.

The promise of AVs must be weighed not just in crash statistics but in how they reshape land use, travel behavior, and climate trajectories.

Questions to guide AV development in the public interest

Rather than debating whether AVs are “inevitable,” it is more productive to ask specific questions that can shape policy and design. These questions focus on integrating AVs into broader goals like safety, climate, mode shift, and VMT reduction.

Safety and accountability

  1. Who is legally responsible when an automated vehicle causes a serious or fatal crash
  2. What independent bodies audit AV safety claims and test vehicles in realistic conditions
  3. How much crash and near‑miss data must companies share with regulators and the public
  4. How will safety standards evolve as AV capabilities change, and who gets a say in that

A key principle should be that the party who controls the code shares responsibility when that code harms people.

Rights and experiences of people outside vehicles

  1. How will AV deployments protect and enhance the rights of pedestrians, cyclists, transit riders, and disabled road users
  2. Will cities preserve and expand crosswalks, protected bike lanes, and traffic calming, even if it challenges AV design assumptions
  3. What happens when AV routing conflicts with bus priority lanes, school zones, or slow streets that prioritize kids and elders

The goal is to avoid redefining normal human movement as “interference” with automated traffic.

Integration with public transit and mode shift goals

  1. Are AV services being designed to connect to and support public transit, or to compete with it
  2. Do city and regional plans treat AVs as part of a multimodal ecosystem, with clear targets for walking, cycling, and transit mode share
  3. Can AV fleets be regulated to provide service in underserved areas and off‑peak times, not just profitable corridors

Cities could, for example, make AV operating permits contingent on measurable contributions to transit ridership, not just on a promise of “innovation.”

Climate and VMT reduction

  1. Are AVs required to be electric, and if so under what timeline
  2. What policies are in place to prevent AVs from increasing total vehicle miles traveled
  3. How will pricing, zoning, and parking policy interact with AV deployment

Tools might include congestion pricing, per‑mile fees, low‑emission zones, and strict parking reform. AVs should fit into a climate‑aligned transport strategy rather than setting the agenda themselves.

Data governance and public oversight

  1. Who owns the data generated by AV operations, and who can access it
  2. How can cities use AV data to improve safety and planning without compromising individual privacy
  3. What transparency is required about algorithmic choices, training data, and known limitations

AV data is a form of power. If it is controlled solely by private firms, public agencies will struggle to manage the broader system.

Resilience and emergency planning

  1. How will AV fleets behave during large‑scale disruptions like floods, wildfires, cyberattacks, major blackouts, or telecom outages
  2. What authority do emergency services have to direct, clear, or disable AVs in crisis
  3. Have AV companies and public agencies run joint drills to test worst‑case scenarios

A resilient system does not assume that everything will work as intended. It plans for cascading failures and human‑machine coordination under stress.

Equity and inclusion

  1. Who gets to shape AV policy decisions, and whose voices are missing
  2. Which communities are bearing the brunt of testing and early deployment, and how are they being compensated or protected
  3. How will pricing, accessibility, and service design ensure that low‑income riders, people with disabilities, and people without digital access can benefit

An AV system that only serves wealthy, tech‑savvy riders is not progress. It is another layer of inequality.

Conclusion: A powerful technology in a car‑centric world

Automated vehicles are not destiny. They are tools whose impacts will be determined by choices about law, economics, and social values.

On one hand, AVs could dramatically reduce certain types of crashes, expand mobility for people whom the current system leaves behind, and help decarbonize and right‑size parts of the transport network.

On the other hand, they could entrench car dependence and sprawl, undermine public transit and active travel, concentrate power in a few corporate platforms, shift risk and cost onto communities while privatizing gains.

All of this is unfolding within a starting point that is already deeply car‑centric. Many regions have land use patterns that make driving a necessity. Large numbers of people live in places where walking or biking feels unsafe. Public transit, where it exists, is often underfunded and undervalued. People outside vehicle cabins are already marginalized in design, enforcement, and investment choices.

Introducing AVs into that system without changing the underlying rules is likely to reinforce its worst features. AVs could make car dependence more comfortable and more automated, while leaving the basic inequities intact. They might even obscure those inequities behind a story of high‑tech progress.

A thoughtful path starts with deliberately asking what kind of system we want to create.

What kind of transportation system do we want? How much space should be given to private vehicles versus people? What needs to happen to ensure that everyone, not just those inside a vehicle, has safety, freedom, and dignity on the street?

If we answer those questions now, AVs can be evaluated and shaped as one tool among many. Not as the star of the show, but as a supporting actor in a broader transition toward safer streets, lower emissions, less driving, and more inclusive mobility.

The promise is real. The pitfalls are real. The task now is probing the key issues in order to develop rules and incentives that make the most of the technology while delivering sufficient public oversight and protections for people and communities .

References

Ehsani, J. P., Bingham, C. R., & Kortum, E. (2024). Advancing transportation equity and safety through autonomous vehicles. American Journal of Public Health. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10949946/

Clark, C. (2018). Cruising into a driverless future: Research on autonomous vehicles. The Journalist’s Resource. https://journalistsresource.org/environment/autonomous-vehicles-uber-driverless-cars/

Emory, K., Brown, A., & Blumenberg, E. (2022). Autonomous vehicle policies with equity implications. Transport Policy. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2590198221002268

Fagnant, D. J., & Kockelman, K. (2015). Preparing a nation for autonomous vehicles. Transportation Research Part A. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2015.04.003

Milakis, D., Snelder, M., van Arem, B., van Wee, B., & de Almeida Correia, G. H. (2017). Development and transport implications of automated vehicles in the Netherlands: Scenarios for 2030 and 2050. European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. https://doi.org/10.18757/ejtir.2017.17.1.3180

Harb, M., Xiao, Y., Circella, G., Mokhtarian, P., & Walker, J. (2018). Projecting travelers into a world of self‑driving vehicles. Transportation. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-018-9937-5

NACTO (2019). Blueprint for autonomous urbanism (2nd ed.). National Association of City Transportation Officials. https://nacto.org/publication/bau2

OECD/ITF (2015). Urban mobility system upgrade: How shared self‑driving cars could change city traffic. International Transport Forum. https://www.itf-oecd.org/urban-mobility-system-upgrade-how-shared-self-driving-cars-could-change-city-traffic

California Air Resources Board (2025). Policy brief – Automated and autonomous vehicles: Implications for emissions, VMT, and land use. California Air Resources Board. https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/AVs%20-%202025%20Policy%20Brief.pdf

Author(s) not clearly listed online. Autonomous vehicles as public transport: Perceptions of risks and opportunities for urban mobility. Journal of Urban Technology. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10630732.2025.2509532

Chapter author(s) as listed in volume. Autonomous vehicles: Innovations, challenges, and implications for law and society. In Oxford Handbook of Law and Technology. Oxford University Press. https://academic.oup.com/oxford-law-pro/edited-volume/59931/chapter/512683800

Harper, C. D., Hendrickson, C. T., Mangones, S., & Samaras, C. (2023). Estimating potential increases in travel with autonomous vehicles for the non‑driving, elderly, and people with travel‑restrictive medical conditions. Transportation Research Part C. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trc.2023.104312

Vasudevan, R., Miller, J., & Li, W. (2023). Automated vehicles and the future of public transport: Integration scenarios and policy choices. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trip.2023.100876

Gittleman, S., Brown, A., & King, D. (2024). Who benefits from robotaxis. Early evidence on ridehail automation and equity. Transport Policy. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2024.02.006

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Lessons from 2025’s biggest transportation failures

Failure is an important part of learning, but only learning is something we choose. We can treat failure as an inconvenient PR problem. Or it can be feedback on how our assumptions and thinking need work.

Transportation in 2025 provided some meaty feedback. A decade of confident predictions ran into political reality, economic incentives, and the basic messiness of moving people and goods in real cities.

Here are a few places where 2025 should be changing how we think and act.

1. Despite industry promises, personal cars are not on their way out

Ten years ago, a Lyft co‑founder wrote that by 2025 personal cars would be “nearly gone” from cities. Even then, that ignored basic facts about land use, politics, and human behavior. Yet the claim slid into headlines and policy conversations with little pushback.

Today, cars still dominate how Americans move. Many transit systems are struggling to recover riders. Rideshare is a supplement, not a substitute, for car ownership. Parking lots still occupy prime land that could house people or jobs.

The lesson is not that car‑light cities are impossible. It is that technology alone does not unwind decades of pro‑car decisions. If we want fewer cars, we have to change streets, zoning, finance, and law.

Questions to ask now:

  • What changes to parking policy, zoning, street design, and investments are we willing to make to reduce car dependence?
  • How do we hold companies and public officials accountable when they sell futures that depend on changes they never seriously pursue?
  • When we hear bold forecasts today, what visible groundwork would show they are more than wishful thinking?

2. Despite industry promises, EVs aren’t going to be cheap without a strong hand from the government

Elon Musk once said Tesla’s goal was to make EVs affordable for the masses, including a 25,000 dollar car by 2025. That car has not arrived. Tesla and most competitors focus on larger, more expensive models that deliver better margins.

This outcome is mostly the market responding to the incentives we have set up. For years, policy has encouraged bigger, heavier vehicles. Public subsidies do not always prioritize affordability. We have also allowed car ownership to remain the default way to access jobs and daily needs.

Without policies that directly favor smaller and cheaper EVs, the industry will keep drifting upscale.

Questions to ask now:

  • If we truly want a $25,000 EV, what tax credits, standards, feebates, and procurement rules are we willing to change to make that outcome likely?
  • Should subsidies be larger for smaller, lower‑cost vehicles and phase out for luxury models?
  • How can we invest in transit, shared mobility, walking, and biking so that “better transportation” does not always mean “another car?”

3. E‑bikes, the best transportation technology in a generation, are held back by what happens after the sale

E‑bikes may be the most transformative transportation technology of the past decade. They turn hills into minor details, extend the range of everyday trips, and offer a real alternative to many car journeys. They are also efficient, relatively affordable, and enjoyable to use.

Yet the e‑bike market is fragile. Rad Power Bikes, a high‑profile brand, rode a wave of rapid growth, then faltered under quality problems, safety concerns, and a thin support network. One seeming important mistake was treating the first sale as the finish line. Many owners were left to navigate parts, repairs, and battery issues on their own.

Transportation products need a durable support ecosystem. Cars have it through dealers, independent shops, and standardized parts. E‑bikes mostly do not, which erodes trust just as the mode is gaining momentum.

Questions to ask now:

  • What would a reliable national support system for e‑bikes look like, from standardized parts to training for local mechanics?
  • When governments subsidize e‑bike purchases, should they also fund (or require) maintenance support, warranties, or repair assistance?
  • How do we prevent “grow fast, fix it later” business models from undermining confidence in a technology that cities badly need?

4. Automated vehicles don’t really work unless they work in messy edge cases

Companies like Waymo have promised safer streets through automated driving. Waymo in particular has worked to build a reputation for caution and respect for the social contract on public roads.

Then came a clear warning sign. When confronted with unusual but real‑world conditions, Waymo’s vehicles shut down in ways that blocked traffic across a city and interfered with emergency responders and transit vehicles. The details of that event matter, but the broader pattern matters more. Transportation is full of overlapping, low‑probability situations. At scale, those situations are not rare at all.

A system that works only when everything seems normal is not a replacement for human drivers given thar driving is so complex, filled with unexpected things happening, and with ever-changing conditions. A system that expects broad public tolerance for its failures, while humans are punished for theirs, is also hard to defend.

Questions to ask now:

  • What level of performance in unusual, high‑risk situations should be required before automated vehicles are widely deployed?
  • Who bears responsibility when automated fleets fail in ways that hurt the public, from delays to blocked ambulances?
  • Are regulators equipped to demand independent, real‑world evidence of safety before granting broad operating permissions?

5. The US still tolerates an unusually deadly road system for no good reason

The harshest lesson is not new, but it is still largely unanswered. US roads remain far more dangerous than those in other wealthy countries. Our national death rate of roughly 11 to 12 traffic deaths per 100,000 people is two to three times the rate in Canada, Australia, and Western Europe, and four to six times that of the safest Scandinavian countries.

This is not destiny. Other countries have cut traffic deaths dramatically with known tools. These include lower, self‑enforcing speed limits, safer street designs, protected bike lanes, safe pedestrian crossings, better vehicle standards for people outside the car, and targeted enforcement with privacy protections.

We know many of these countermeasures. Some cities and states are starting to apply them. Yet at the national level, especially under the Trump administration, we have seen steps away from stricter safety rules and toward looser standards and larger vehicles.

Questions to ask now

  • If other countries have cut traffic deaths by half or more, what stops us from doing the same?
  • Why are proven safety measures still treated as controversial experiments instead of standard practice?
  • How can states and cities move ahead with evidence‑based safety changes even when federal policy is lagging or hostile?

Choosing to learn from 2025

The common thread in these failures is not technology. It is choice. We chose to treat bold forecasts as destiny instead of asking what would have to change to make them real. We chose to trust that markets would deliver public benefits without shaping incentives to line up with those benefits. We chose, in many cases, to ignore examples from other countries that are already doing better.

Transportation will keep evolving. AI, automation, new business models, and new vehicles will all play a role. The question is whether we keep repeating the same patterns or start designing systems that are safer, fairer, and more resilient.

To learn from 2025, we should be asking
How do we align private profit with public goals instead of hoping they match on their own
Where do we need firm rules and public investment, not just innovation and marketing
How do we center human life, climate stability, and equitable access in every “future of mobility” pitch from now on

Failure in transportation is measured in lives, health, time, and money. We cannot avoid every failure, but we can decide whether each one becomes a turning point or just another missed chance to change course.

References

Badger, E. and Fitzsimmons, E.G. (2023). America’s Roads Are More Deadly. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/05/us/traffic-deaths-pandemic.html

Boudette, N.E. and Charging, A. (2024). Tesla Drops Plan for a $25,000 Car, Prioritizing Robotaxis. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/05/business/tesla-cheap-car-robotaxi.html

Cobb, J. (2018). Lyft Co‑Founder Predicts End of Private Car Ownership in Cities by 2025. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamescobb/2018/03/13/lyft-cofounder-cities-private-car-ownership-2025

Feitelberg, R. (2023). Why E‑Bikes Are the Future of Urban Transportation. Bloomberg CityLab. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-10/e-bikes-are-replacing-cars-in-cities

Marshall, A. (2023). Rad Power Bikes’ Troubled Ride and What It Means for Micromobility. WIRED. https://www.wired.com/story/rad-power-bikes-troubles-micromobility

NTSB (2024). Most Wanted List of Transportation Safety Improvements 2024–2025. National Transportation Safety Board. https://www.ntsb.gov/safety/mwl/Pages/default.aspx

OECD/ITF (2023). Road Safety Annual Report 2023. International Transport Forum. https://www.itf-oecd.org/road-safety-annual-report-2023

Waymo (2023). Waymo Safety Methodologies and Performance Update. Waymo. https://waymo.com/safety

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After a century of driving, we have less freedom—here’s how to get it back

On the surface, “freedom” on the road can seem like having a car and driving it everywhere. But when you look at how transportation and land use have changed over the last century, a different story emerges.

A hundred years ago, many more people lived close to what they needed and could reach daily life by walking, biking, or riding transit. Today, we travel farther, spend more of our income on transportation, are exposed to more peril, and are leaving a large and growing share of people who cannot easily drive stranded and stressing public services.

The unfortunate reality is that after a century of cars, we have fewer mobility options and our ability to thrive and even survive is more dependent on a profit-making industry that has nearly complete control over our freedom of movement.

The good news is that the same kinds of policies that have led us to where we are today can liberate us.

Transportation options a century ago

In the mid‑1920s, a large share of Americans in cities and towns lived within a short distance of daily life. In 1920, roughly half of the U.S. population lived in urban areas. Those cities were much denser and more compact than today’s metropolitan regions.

Streetcars and interurban rail shaped growth. In the 1910s and early 1920s, street railways carried on the order of 13 to 14 billion trips a year, well over 100 trips per resident. In many cities, most workers reached jobs by walking or riding transit. New York, Boston, Philadelphia, and Chicago all depended heavily on streetcars and early subways for commuting.

Urban neighborhoods were mixed and close‑knit. Apartments and boarding houses stood near factories and warehouses. Many people lived in walking distance of small grocers, corner shops, schools, and churches. Developers built “streetcar suburbs” whose very business model depended on buyers being able to walk to a transit stop and ride into town.

People had real options. Walking was normal for short trips. Transit was normal for work and school. Bicycles expanded personal range for many who could not or did not want to buy a car. Streets carried slow traffic and a mix of users, which made cycling and walking more plausible for daily needs even without modern protected lanes.

Most important, you could live a full life without a car. Proximity and transit made that possible. That mix of short distances and multiple modes provided a kind of everyday freedom that many people do not have now.

Transportation options today

By the 2020s, the picture has flipped. About four out of five Americans now live in metropolitan areas, but those areas cover far more land than in 1920. Homes, jobs, and services are spread over large distances.

A typical pattern in newer development is clear. Single‑family houses fill large subdivisions. Shops cluster in centers along wide arterial roads. Offices sit in business parks and edge cities near freeway exits. Schools and hospitals stand on big sites fronted by parking lots and fast traffic. Sidewalks are missing on key links. Networks for safe bicycling are nearly nonexistent. Transit lines, where they exist at all, can be rare and hard to reach on foot.

Most people now use a car for almost every trip. Around 85 percent of U.S. workers commute by driving. Transit handles only a small share of trips, often around five percent of work commutes and less of total travel. The average one‑way commute has climbed to roughly 27 or 28 minutes, up from about 20 minutes in 1980, and often covers many more miles.

The money and safety costs are high. Household transportation spending often falls between 13 and 17 percent of the budget, with higher shares for lower‑income families. For many people, transportation is the second‑largest expense after housing. Owning and operating one car can easily cost several thousand dollars per year and two‑car households are common.

At the same time, the U.S. suffers tens of thousands of traffic deaths every year and hundreds of thousands of serious injuries. That adds up to roughly a dozen or more deaths per 100,000 people in many years. People walking or biking face particular danger on multi‑lane, high‑speed roads. Pedestrian deaths have risen sharply over the past decade.

This system also limits the freedom of many groups. Young people who cannot yet drive often cannot reach jobs, activities, or friends without rides. Older adults who stop driving for health or safety reasons can become isolated if they live far from stores or transit. People with disabilities who cannot drive or can drive only in limited circumstances face long waits and logistical hurdles. Lower‑income workers may spend a large part of limited earnings on cars or endure long, unreliable commutes on underfunded transit.

Cars can feel like they offer freedom on an individual trip. At the system level, we have built a world where long distances and missing alternatives turn cars into a requirement rather than a choice. That is a narrower kind of freedom than the one many people had a century ago.

What caused the “drive” towards less freedom

The shift from a closer, multimodal world to a distant, car‑based is a consequence of policy choices, backed and promoted by industries profiting from it.

One major force was highway building. Federal and state governments invested heavily in roads, especially after the 1950s. The Interstate Highway System alone created more than forty thousand miles of high‑speed routes. Urban freeways cut through city neighborhoods and made it possible to live and work much farther apart. For decades, most national and state transportation dollars went into highways, while transit received much less.

A second major force was zoning and land‑use control. After the 1920s and especially after World War II, many cities and suburbs adopted zoning maps that reserved most residential land for detached single‑family houses. In many communities, as much as two‑thirds or more of residential land allows only that one housing type. Local codes also imposed large minimum lot sizes, deep setbacks from the street, and generous parking requirements for homes and businesses. Commercial and residential uses were often separated. This legal structure made compact and mixed neighborhoods much harder to build.

As populations grew, new residents could not easily move into central or transit‑rich areas because those areas were limited to low‑density housing by law and were often already full. Instead, they were funneled into outer subdivisions and farther‑flung towns. Everyday distances grew. Driving became a necessity rather than a preference.

A third force was the decline and partial reinvention of transit. Private streetcar and bus companies lost riders as cars grew more common. They were tightly regulated on fares and often required to maintain streets along their tracks. Without public support, many systems cut service or shut down. Public agencies later took over and federal funding began in the 1960s and 1970s. New rail lines opened in some cities. But transit was often treated as a service for those without cars, not as the backbone of regional mobility, and funding levels reflected that.

A fourth force was road design and safety thinking. Mid‑century traffic engineering focused on vehicle speed and carrying capacity. Designers widened lanes and intersections and made turning radii large. Many older city streets that once worked at human scale turned into fast conduits for through traffic. Safety programs improved cars and driver behavior in some respects but left the basic structure of dangerous roads largely intact.

Finally, housing and civil rights policies shaped who had access to what. Redlining, discriminatory lending, and exclusionary zoning kept many Black families, immigrants, and lower‑income households out of new suburbs and often concentrated them in neighborhoods cut by new highways. These communities sometimes lost both housing and access when freeways arrived, with lasting effects.

Together, these choices stretched distances, removed compact options from the menu in many places, and made driving the default way to participate in normal life. They also divided access and burden along lines of income, race, age, and ability.

How to take our freedom back

Just as creating a car-centric system has made us less free, and we can restore freedom by rebuilding proximity, restoring variety in how neighborhoods are built, and supporting many ways to travel. This does not require banning cars. It means no longer building everything as if the car is the only option that matters.

One step is to change the rules about what can be built and where. Cities and suburbs can allow more housing types in more places, especially near jobs, schools, and transit. That includes legalizing duplexes, triplexes, and small apartment buildings in areas that now allow only detached houses. It also includes allowing mixed use buildings in more locations so people can live near shops and services. Reducing or removing minimum parking requirements lets builders use land for homes and businesses rather than long‑term car storage. Over time, these changes allow more people to live closer to what they need.

Another step is to treat transit as essential infrastructure. Regions can fund frequent, all‑day service on key routes and protect those routes from congestion with bus lanes or rail priority where it makes sense. Land use and transit planning can be linked so that new housing and jobs cluster along strong transit lines rather than scattering randomly. Good transit gives people who drive another choice and gives those who do not drive a real right to the city and the region.

Street design needs attention as well. Many high‑speed arterials can be rebuilt so that they are safer for everyone. Narrower lanes, shorter crossings, better crosswalks, and protected space for cycling lower the chance and severity of crashes. Filling sidewalk gaps and improving lighting make walking more attractive and safer. Campaigns that aim to eliminate deaths and serious injuries can focus on the places and designs that create the most harm and track results.

We also need to focus on people with the fewest options today. That means strong paratransit and accessible fixed‑route service for people with disabilities. It means safe routes so children and teenagers can walk or bike to school or activities without relying on adults to drive them. It means better and more frequent transit in lower‑income neighborhoods, along with fares and passes people can afford. Supporting e‑bikes and other small electric vehicles with safe places to ride can also extend the reach of non‑car travel for many people.

Finally, transportation policy can line up more clearly with goals for health, climate, equity, and economic opportunity. Leaders can favor projects that shorten trip distances, improve access by walking, biking, and transit, and repair past harms from highways. Measures of success can shift from how fast cars move on a segment of road to how many people can reach jobs, schools, grocery stores, and doctors within a reasonable time without a car.

A hundred years ago, many urban Americans enjoyed a quieter form of freedom built on short distances and many ways to travel. Today, in spite of higher incomes and more advanced vehicles, many of us have less real choice and more dependency. By changing how we build and connect our communities, we can move back toward a world where people are free to use cars when they want, but do not have to use them for every part of life.

References

Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (2024). Fatality Facts. IIHS.
https://www.iihs.org/topics/fatality-statistics

American Automobile Association (2023). Your Driving Costs. AAA.
https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/aaa-average-cost-of-owning-a-car

Bureau of Labor Statistics (2023). Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2022. U.S. Department of Labor.
https://www.bls.gov/cex/

U.S. Census Bureau (2021). American Community Survey 1‑Year Estimates, Means of Transportation to Work and Travel Time to Work.
https://data.census.gov

U.S. Census Bureau (2020). Urban and Rural.
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural.html

Federal Highway Administration (2017). Interstate System Facts. U.S. Department of Transportation.
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/interstate/facts.cfm

American Public Transportation Association (various years). Public Transportation Fact Book (Historical Tables). American Public Transportation Association.
https://www.apta.com/research-technical-resources/transit-statistics/public-transportation-fact-book/

Norton, Peter D. (2008). Fighting Traffic. The Dawn of the Motor Age in the American City. MIT Press.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262516129/fighting-traffic/

Flink, James J. (1988). The Automobile Age. MIT Press.
https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262560559/the-automobile-age/

Seely, Bruce E. (1993). Building the American Highway System. Engineers as Policy Makers. Temple University Press.
https://tupress.temple.edu/books/building-the-american-highway-system

Rose, Mark H. (1979). Interstate. Express Highway Politics, 1939–1989. University of Tennessee Press.
https://utpress.org/title/interstate/

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100 years of automotive progress and transportation now costs…more

After more than a hundred years of engineering breakthroughs and industrial refinement, you might expect the cost of getting around by car to have dropped. Factories are vastly more efficient. Supply chains are global. Vehicles are safer, more reliable, and more comfortable than anything on the road in 1925.

Yet for the typical American household, the car has become more expensive. It has swollen as a proportion of income and expenses, while splitting into many different bills.

Add in commuting time and high rates of dangerous crashes and the costs swell further.

Cars have also become harder to say no to—cars have gone from one option among many to something most people cannot realistically opt out of.

In sum, compared to the early days of mass motoring, the typical American household is carrying a larger, riskier, and more compulsory transportation burden.

Then And Now: What Cars Really Cost

  1. The Cost Of A Car

In the 1920s, a basic mass‑market car was a big purchase, but not an all‑consuming one. A Ford Model T near the end of its run cost a substantial share of the average annual wage, but households usually bought a single, modest vehicle. It was simple, small, and often the only car they owned. Once you counted fuel and maintenance, the yearly cost was real but limited.

Today the picture is very different. Sticker prices are far higher in dollars, but the deeper change is how much of a household’s financial life now runs through its vehicles. A typical new car or truck can easily come close to the size of a full year’s median income. Even used cars have risen sharply in real, inflation‑adjusted terms, especially if you want something safe and reliable.

At the same time, many households now keep two or three vehicles. Even if one bare‑bones car were still somewhat affordable, the total capital tied up in multiple, larger, and more complex vehicles is far greater than it was in the early auto age. When you look at annual costs, adjusted for inflation, the weight is clear. Loan payments, insurance, fuel, maintenance, registration, parking, and fees can easily consume a large share of income. For many families, transportation takes a similar bite out of the budget as it did decades ago, and in some cases a bigger one. A century of technical progress has not made the total yearly cost of owning and using cars melt away. It has simply become more intricate and more deeply built into the household budget.

  1. Debt, Negative Equity, And Financial Stress

The way we finance cars has also changed. In the early days of mass motoring, time payments were new, and they were relatively short. Buyers typically made a sizable down payment, then finished paying within a year or two. There was still the risk of missed payments and repossession, but the period of debt was short, and the remaining balance usually did not outrun the car’s falling value.

Modern car loans tell another story. Terms of five, six, or seven years are common. Down payments are often small. The vehicle loses value quickly in the first few years, yet the loan balance falls only slowly. Many borrowers find themselves owing more than the car is worth. When they trade in, the leftover debt does not disappear. It is rolled into the next loan. In this way, yesterday’s shortfall becomes part of the cost of today’s car. For some drivers, this pattern repeats across several vehicles.

These long, large loans create payments that crowd the rest of life. Once you add insurance and fuel, it is easy for car expenses to rival or even exceed housing costs for lower‑income families. That leaves very little room for error. A job loss, an illness, or a surprise bill can trigger missed payments. Repossession then threatens not just a piece of property but the ability to reach work or school at all.

In this climate, the car is no longer just a tool that happens to be financed. It is a long‑term obligation wrapped tightly around a family’s stability. Negative equity and stretched loans make it normal to be underwater on an asset that remains essential to earning an income. That degree of ongoing financial strain was far less common in the early years of car ownership.

  1. Who Gets Stranded, And How

Cars were never universal in the 1920s, yet more people could function without one. Many cities and towns had streetcars, interurban trains, and local rail. Walking distances to jobs, schools, and stores were often shorter. A household might not own a car, but still have many ways to reach daily destinations.

Today, the transport system is built on a different assumption. It expects almost every adult to drive. This leaves several groups exposed.

Young people often cannot easily reach work, school, and social life without a car, even if they are not yet able to afford one or do not have a full license. Older adults who begin to age out of safe driving often do not automatically gain access to robust transit or walkable environments. Instead, they can lose independence and become effectively housebound in car‑oriented suburbs.

People with disabilities who cannot drive safely are often forced to rely on limited paratransit, costly ride‑hailing, or favors from family and friends. Lower‑income households face a similar problem from a different angle. They live in places that require driving, but can least afford to keep a car running. A mechanical failure or a lapsed insurance policy can abruptly cut them off from work, childcare, and food.

In many parts of the country a century ago, it was possible to live and work in the same town, walk more of your daily needs, or use a mix of trains and streetcars. Today, in much of the United States, not having a car means being stranded. Human abilities have not changed. The built system has.

From Choice To Dependence

When cars first spread, they entered a world filled with other ways to move. Urban areas had streetcars and trams. Towns and nearby cities were linked by interurban rail. Many neighborhoods mixed homes, shops, and small workplaces in short walking distance of each other. Cars offered new flexibility and speed and competed with these systems.

Over the following decades, government policy and private investment tipped the scales. Streetcar networks were removed or neglected. Bus systems replaced rail in many places, but often with lower frequency and reliability. Highways cut through urban neighborhoods and made it easier to live farther from the center. Planning rules separated homes from workplaces and stores and favored low density, drive‑in designs. Many new suburbs were laid out from the start around large roads, driveways, and parking lots, with few sidewalks and little or no transit.

The result is not just that more people like to drive. It is that many now have very little power not to drive. Even people who would gladly give up a second car, or even their only car, often cannot make that choice without uprooting their lives. Their workplace is not served by transit. Basic errands are miles away along high‑speed roads. Safe bike routes are missing. Sidewalks end suddenly.

Over time the menu of real options shrank. Where earlier generations could choose between several modes, modern households in most of the country face an almost all‑or‑nothing choice. Either they own and operate one or more cars, or they accept a level of constraint and isolation that is hard to square with normal daily life. A century of engineering progress has coincided with a quiet loss of transportation bargaining power for ordinary people.

Housing And Transportation: A Tightening Knot

Transportation costs do not stand alone. They are woven into where people can live and how far they must travel.

Zoning that separates housing from jobs and shops, mandatory parking rules, and decades of highway construction have worked together to stretch cities outward. New homes have often been built farther from major employment centers. At the same time, parking spaces, garages, and driveways became standard features of residential construction. That land and concrete are not free. They push up the cost of housing, even if the burden is not listed as a separate line item.

Households respond to this geography by driving more. When work, school, and daily errands are scattered across a wide area, it becomes harder to get by with one shared car or with a combination of walking and transit. People buy additional vehicles, and they accept longer commutes. Transportation costs rise, but they are treated as an unavoidable side effect of getting “more space” or “cheaper housing.”

Ironically, the push for cheaper housing often drives people to locations where transportation is both more necessary and more expensive. A home on the outer edge of a metropolitan area may offer a lower monthly mortgage or rent. Yet the savings can be offset by the need for two cars instead of one, longer daily drives, and higher spending on fuel and maintenance. Meanwhile, the home itself is more expensive to build and maintain than it appears, because it quietly includes land and structures dedicated to car storage.

This creates a feedback loop. Housing near jobs and transit grows scarce and costly. People who cannot afford it move farther out. Their transportation costs grow, which in turn makes it harder to save or move closer in later. The whole system ends up pushing housing and transportation costs upward together.

In a more flexible environment, people could choose to live close to work, pay more for housing, and spend less on transportation, or live farther away, accept more commuting time, but save enough overall to make the tradeoff worthwhile. Today that choice is often constrained. Walkable, transit‑served neighborhoods are limited and heavily bid up. Car‑dependent areas are plentiful and more affordable up front, but carry ongoing transportation costs that households cannot easily escape.

As a result, many people are not just traveling farther than they would prefer. They are also less able to live in the kind of places they actually want. The layout of housing and transportation channels them into patterns that maximize driving and car ownership, with little room for genuine preference.

Why Cars Feel More Expensive, Even As They Improve

Measured purely by features, modern vehicles are remarkable. They are more comfortable, more durable, and far more convenient than the cars of 1925. Many luxuries of the past are now standard. There has been real progress.

Yet if we ask whether ordinary households have been freed from the financial weight of everyday travel, the answer is still no. Even as manufacturing has become more efficient, several forces have kept mobility costly.

Direct costs remain high once you account for the number and size of vehicles per household and the total annual bills, even after adjusting for inflation. The spread of long loans and small down payments has made debt and negative equity a normal part of car ownership, leaving many drivers financially stressed and often owing more than their car is worth. The dominance of driving has left people who are too young, too old, disabled, or too poor to drive stranded or heavily dependent on others. The loss of robust alternatives has turned cars from a choice into a requirement for most people. And the way we build housing has tied the cost of shelter and the cost of transportation tightly together, pushing people to live farther from the places they want to be and to travel longer distances just to maintain ordinary routines.

In principle, a century of industrial and engineering gains could have made basic mobility cheap, flexible, and optional. In practice, those gains have helped build larger vehicles, extend profit‑rich financing, and sustain a landscape that quietly expects nearly everyone to keep buying and fueling cars for life. The car has not truly become cheaper in the ways that matter to everyday families. Instead, its price has been redistributed, buried in monthly payments, folded into rents and mortgages that pay for parking, and measured in hours behind the wheel that people must give up simply because there is no realistic alternative.

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The “cost of place:” Why housing and transportation are the same household bill

People tend to separate housing from transportation when they budget. From a savings standpoint, they are one decision about where you live and how you get around.

The cost of place is the combined monthly cost to keep a roof over your head and to reach work, school, groceries, friends, and care. Tools like the H+T Index were created to make that combined cost visible.

A lower rent or mortgage on the edge of town can raise the cost of place. Longer trips mean more fuel, more maintenance, higher insurance, more parking, and often one more car. A higher rent in a location efficient neighborhood can lower the cost of place if it lets you own fewer cars and make shorter trips.

A simple example is one household that pays $2,200 for rent and $150 for transit or occasional rides, compared with another that pays &1,700 for housing but $900 to $1,200 for two cars. The second household looks cheaper on paper until you add transportation.

What it means for households

Shop for the combined monthly number, not just the rent or mortgage. List expected car ownership and use, parking, insurance, fuel, maintenance, and any transit or rideshare spending.

Compare neighborhoods on that total. Test scenarios that trade one car for a monthly transit pass, carshare, or e bike.

Consider the value of time. Shorter trips and fewer car errands can free hours each week and lower stress.

When viewing homes, look for daily needs within a short walk or a single transit ride and ask about unbundled parking so you do not pay for spaces you do not use.

What it means for cities and policymakers

Cities can drive up the cost of place when land use rules push homes far from jobs and daily needs and when streets and parking policy make car travel the only viable option.

Minimum lot sizes, bans on apartments and missing middle housing, strict height caps, setbacks that force low density, and lengthy approval processes suppress homes in town where transportation costs are lower.

Parking minimums raise building costs and spread destinations apart.

Single-use zoning separates homes from shops and schools which lengthens trips and locks in car dependency.

Inadequate transit that fails to provide a realistically useful way to get around.

Street designs that prioritize fast through traffic over safe walking, biking, and transit add to those costs.

To lower the cost of place, allow more homes near jobs, schools, parks, and frequent transit.

Legalize duplexes, triplexes, courtyard apartments, and accessory dwelling units. M

Upzone near transit and main streets and permit mixed use buildings so errands are close. Replace parking minimums with context sensitive maximums, unbundle parking from rent, and price curb parking so spaces turn over.

Invest in reliable buses and trains, dedicated bus lanes, safe bike networks, and safer crossings so fewer households need multiple cars. Encourage transit oriented development on public and private land. Speed approvals for projects that add homes in location efficient areas.

Align school and public facility siting with walkable and transit served locations.

Use inclusionary tools and land value capture carefully so they add homes where access is best without stalling production.

Consider demand management like employer transit benefits and cash out for parking.

These actions reduce both the need to drive and the number of vehicles per household which lowers monthly costs.

Bottom line

The cheapest address is not always the most affordable once you add the cost to get around. Treat housing and transportation as one decision and aim for a lower cost of place.

References

Center for Neighborhood Technology (n.d.). H+T Affordability Index. Center for Neighborhood Technology. https://htaindex.cnt.org/
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Department of Transportation (n.d.). Location Affordability Index. HUD and DOT. https://www.locationaffordability.info/
AAA (2024). Your Driving Costs. AAA. https://newsroom.aaa.com/auto/your-driving-costs/
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024). Consumer Expenditures. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://www.bls.gov/cex/
Ewing, R., and Cervero, R. (2010). Travel and the Built Environment. Journal of the American Planning Association. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944361003766766
Litman, T. (2024). Transportation Affordability. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. https://www.vtpi.org/affordability.pdf
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2013). Location Efficiency and Housing Choice. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. https://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/location-efficiency-and-housing-choice
Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies (2024). The State of the Nation’s Housing 2024. Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies. https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/research-areas/reports/state-nations-housing-2024

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Want $1 Million? Drop the extra car

Most people think of their cars as working for them. They imagine convenience, freedom, maybe even status.

But for many American households, especially those with an unnecessary extra car, that second or third vehicle quietly burns through enough money to take away real long‑term wealth.

If you want a surprisingly powerful path toward $1 million, start by exploring whether you really need every car in your driveway.

The hidden cost of owning a car

Owning a car or more per adult is normal. Monthly payments are normal. Gas, insurance, repairs, registration, parking, and random fees are normal.

But “normal” is expensive.

According to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the average American household spends around $12,000 per year on transportation, and the largest portion of that is personal vehicles, including the cost of the car itself, insurance, fuel, maintenance, and repairs (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024). That’s about $1,000 a month, per household, tied up in keeping cars on the road.

In many two‑ or three‑car households, one of those vehicles is barely essential. It’s a convenience. A backup. A “just in case.” That “just in case” can be the difference between coasting financially and becoming a millionaire over time.

What if you invested your car money instead?

Let’s say you find a way to live with one fewer car. You sell it, cancel the insurance, stop paying to fuel and maintain it, and you redirect that $1,000 a month into an investment account instead.

Now invest that $1,000 per month consistently for 25 years and earn an average annual return of 8 percent (compounded monthly for simplicity):. What you get:

$946,000

So getting rid of an unnecessary extra car and investing the savings could put you within striking distance of one million dollars over 25 years.

Not by being a brilliant entrepreneur, taking big risks, or by winning the lottery. Just by not owning a vehicle you don’t truly need and investing what you would have spent on it.

But do I really “spend” that much on my car?

Many people underestimate what a car costs because they only think about the monthly payment.

Here’s what usually gets missed:

  • The payment (if you have a loan or lease)
  • Insurance premiums
  • Gas
  • Routine maintenance (oil changes, tires, brakes, etc.)
  • Unexpected repairs
  • Registration and taxes
  • Parking, tolls, tickets

The American Automobile Association (AAA) regularly estimates that the annual cost to own and operate a new vehicle is in the five‑figure range when you add all of those pieces together (American Automobile Association, 2023). If you’re driving something newer or higher‑end, or you live in a high‑cost city, your real number may be even higher.

If your “extra” car is financed, the financial drag is even worse: you’re paying interest on a depreciating asset that’s losing value every year.

The lifestyle tradeoffs that make this possible

Dropping from two cars to one (or from three to two) isn’t always painless. It usually requires some mix of adjusting commuting patterns, occasionally using rideshare or car‑share, carpooling with coworkers, friends, or family, and/or planning errands and appointments more rigorously.

It may involve getting a bike, ebike, and/or using the bus more. And it all might be easier or harder depending on where you live.

But notice something important: even if you sometimes use taxis, rideshare, or short‑term rentals, that doesn’t come close to the full cost of owning, insuring, and maintaining an extra vehicle for the entire year. The all‑in ownership cost is what quietly kills your wealth.

Some families find that rethinking where they live is part of the equation: moving a bit closer to work, transit, or schools can lower or eliminate the need for that extra car, and also reduce stress and commute time.

This isn’t just about deprivation. It’s about thinking more strategically about transportation for a lot more long‑term freedom.

Why 25 years matters more than you think

Twenty‑five years sounds like forever, but it isn’t. It’s the difference between being 30 and 55, or 40 and 65. Those years are going to pass no matter what. The question is whether each of those months brings you a step closer to financial independence, or just another oil change and insurance bill.

The power is compound growth. When your $1,000 goes into an investment account earning around 8 percent per year on average, your contributions start earning returns, then those returns start earning returns. Over time, your growth accelerates, especially in the later years.

That’s why the decision to drop an unnecessary car early in your financial life can be so powerful. The longer your money has to grow, the more dramatic the result.

Your mileage may vary

This millionaire math uses round numbers to make the point clear. Real life is messier.

The example assumes you save and invest $1,000 per month for 25 years at an 8 percent annual return and end up with around $946,000. With a few more years of investing, you would likely cross the $1 million mark.

You can also adjust the levers: maybe you can only free up $500 per month, or maybe you can redirect $1,500. Maybe your average return is 6 percent instead of 8, or you hit a long stretch of strong markets and do better. None of these inputs are guaranteed; they are tools to help you visualize what’s possible.

You might look at $12,000 per year and think, “I don’t spend that much on my car.” That could be true. But it could also be an underestimate. Many people only think about the payment and gas, and forget insurance, registration, maintenance, and repairs. On the other hand, you might be spending much more. In recent years, many buyers have taken on large loans at high interest rates, often on vehicles that depreciate faster than the loan balance is paid down. That leaves them “underwater,” owing more than the car is worth, and feeling stuck. In those cases, the true annual cost can be well above that $12,000 benchmark.

You might also be in a situation where you can’t offload a car easily. Maybe you need it for work. Maybe the resale value is too low compared with what you owe. Maybe your family’s logistics feel impossible with fewer vehicles. That is all real. But there is usually still room to move somewhere on the spectrum. You might not be able to sell a car today, but you might be able to:

  • Decide that your next car will be one you can afford in cash, not with a high‑interest loan
  • Refinance an expensive loan if possible
  • Drive less, combine trips, or carpool to reduce fuel and wear‑and‑tear
  • Use transit or biking for some trips and delay buying an additional vehicle
  • Set a firm cap on how much of your income will go to transportation

The point is not that every person should immediately dump a car and invest $1,000 a month. It is that cars are one of the biggest and most unexamined expenses in modern life, and we often underestimate how much they cost and how much wealth they displace.

So treat this article as a guide and a thought experiment, not a strict prescription. It is meant to highlight just how much money flows into vehicles, how strongly we are nudged to spend on them, and how powerful it can be if you create even partial alternatives. Whether that means going from three cars to two, stretching the life of a paid‑off car, avoiding a luxury upgrade, or planning to buy your next car in cash, small shifts away from automatic car spending can be surprisingly profitable over the long run.

How to know if an extra car is really “unnecessary”

Ask yourself:

Could we realistically coordinate schedules with one fewer car most days?

Are we keeping a vehicle mostly for rare situations (worst‑case scenarios vs daily needs)?

How many days per month does this car actually get used?

Would occasional rentals, rideshare, or car‑share be cheaper than owning this vehicle year‑round?

Can we move—or think differently about a future move already planned?

If a car is driven infrequently, mostly for convenience, or simply because “we’ve always had two cars,” that’s a signal. It may be less a tool and more a habit.

The mental shift: from car pride to good-decisions pride

Cars are visible status symbols. Investments are invisible. That makes it easy to prioritize the wrong thing.

When you reduce the number of cars you own, it might not show on Instagram. But it shows up quietly in your balance sheet.

Over years and decades, it can be the difference between consistently feeling stretched and building a substantial investment portfolio that supports you and your family

Think of every nonessential car payment as a missed investment deposit. When you flip that around, you’re not “giving up” a car. You’re buying long‑term freedom.

Twenty‑five years from now, you might look back at your old driveway and realize that the best “vehicle” you ever owned was not a car at all, but your investment account.

References

American Automobile Association (2023) tor. Your Driving Costs: How Much Are You Really Paying to Drive? https://www.aaa.com/autorepair/articles/your-driving-costs

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2024) tor. Consumer Expenditures in 2023. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm

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Wrap-up of COP30 in Belém: Developments and what’s next

The COP30 climate talks in Belém, Brazil closed with a familiar mixed message: the headline cover decision reaffirmed the 1.5°C limit and called for “transitions” in energy and economies, but stopped short of a clear, time‑bound fossil‑fuel phaseout and left finance and carbon‑market rules largely unresolved.

That gap between ambition and delivery is where the action now moves—to 2035 nationally-determined commitments (NDCs), to sector transitions guided by the IPCC, to health and wellbeing co‑benefits, and to cities, states, and service innovators who can make climate progress tangible.

Alignment with the IPCC’s “major transitions”

IPCC AR6 lays out the big shifts needed this decade. Power must decarbonize and end use must electrify. Industry needs efficiency and fuel switching. Transport and buildings require strong demand side changes. Land food and nature based solutions must expand. Finance and governance reforms must enable these changes in ways that are feasible and just.

On energy and fossil fuels, the cover decision invoked transitions and allowed for abatement and CCS, but it did not codify a universal fossil fuel phaseout. It reiterated scaling clean energy and efficiency consistent with IPCC least cost pathways, yet without stronger time bound collective targets. The net effect is a political signal to keep shifting capital while continued ambiguity risks a slower drawdown of coal oil and gas.

On 2035 NDCs, parties were urged to submit new economy wide targets aligned with 1.5°C. This matters because it sets a near term deadline for whole economy planning and, if done well, can drive integrated transitions across power transport buildings and industry rather than a set of siloed pledges.

On adaptation and resilience, negotiators advanced work on operationalizing the Global Goal on Adaptation with more clarity on indicators and reporting and less on quantified global targets. This helps countries design risk informed and locally appropriate transitions that remain robust under uncertainty.

On finance and feasibility, delivery pathways for climate finance still lag needs. Without clearer concessional flows and debt relief the feasibility dimension that combines institutions finance and capacity remains a bottleneck for many economies.

On process innovation, the Brazil Presidency draft Mutirão text was described in mid-COP briefings as a menu-based push on implementation. This signals a pivot from one-size-fits-all to practical options that countries can pick up. If carried into the 2035 NDC cycle, it could accelerate uptake of proven transition packages.

The bottom line on transitions is that COP30 nudged system wide planning with 2035 NDCs and adaptation metrics, but it left the core mitigation signal weaker than the IPCC call for rapid deep and sustained reductions. Delivery now hinges on national policy packages and real economy coalitions that move power transport buildings industry and land together.

Role of affordability, health, and other wellbeing

A notable advance at COP30 was the prominence of health and quality of life framing. The WHO Special Report Delivering the Belém Health Action Plan lays out a practical agenda to integrate health into climate action through climate resilient and low carbon health systems, cleaner air, heat health protection, and finance models that value health benefits.

In practice, more parties and partners signaled plans to embed health metrics in climate policy. They plan to track avoided deaths from cleaner air, reduced heat risk, and the resilience of clinics. This reframes climate policy as a public health dividend and not only an emissions ledger.

Demand-side measures for affordability and comfort gained attention. Efficient all-electric homes, passive and district cooling, and clean cooking can reduce bills, improve indoor air, and deliver thermal comfort, especially for low-income households.

Time saved and access also featured. Mobility investments that emphasize high frequency transit, safe walking and cycling, and integrated ticketing reduce commute times and improve access to jobs and services. These multiple benefits are often undervalued in cost benefit analysis.

This matters because policies that foreground lower energy poverty, better air, safer heat seasons, and shorter commutes tend to be more durable politically and faster to scale.

The Belém Health Action Plan offers a template that ministries can adopt now, with indicators that resonate beyond climate circles.

Subnational developments

The Presidency spotlighted cities, regions, tribal, and Indigenous governments as delivery agents. An official evening summary on November 11 emphasized how local and subnational leadership is driving real world climate progress in peoples homes.

Cities and states showcased local implementation plans that braid climate health and affordability goals. Examples include building performance standards, all electric codes for new buildings, rental retrofit programs, and cooling action plans.

They advanced fleet and infrastructure pivots such as zero emission buses, municipal fleets, freight corridors, and EV ready streetscapes, paired with reliability upgrades to distribution grids.

Nature and resilience programs featured urban tree canopies, blue green stormwater systems, fire smart land use, and nature based coastal buffers as no regrets moves that also improve daily life.

Finance innovation is helping smaller jurisdictions attract private capital while protecting low income households by packaging projects into standardized programs such as pay as you save retrofits, green mortgages, and resilience bonds.

This matters because subnational governments control many levers that shape user experience including permits codes service standards transit frequency and cooling centers. Their plans can translate COP speak into renovations routes and shade on the ground.

Focus on services to unite policy with user experience and value

One evolution at COP30 is the treatment of climate solutions as services and not only technologies. The focus is on meeting needs such as mobility, thermal comfort, cooling, clean cooking, and reliable power through integrated offers that align incentives from the start.

A services lens accelerates climate action in several ways. Clear value propositions help because people buy outcomes rather than kilowatt hours, for example mobility as a service that delivers fast reliable and safe trips, comfort as a service that delivers quiet healthy and stable indoor temperatures, and cooling as a service that guarantees performance without upfront cost.

Policy fit improves when service performance standards such as comfort hours trip times and air quality targets sit alongside emissions standards.

Public procurement can buy services for example contracted comfort for schools and hospitals instead of equipment, which enables aggregators to finance upgrades at scale.

Ownership of the user experience reduces friction when one accountable entity handles design delivery maintenance and billing, with bundles that include financing warranties and simple apps that make clean choices the easy default.

Equity by design becomes practical because services can embed affordability through lifeline tiers on bill tariffs and targeted subsidies that guarantee comfort and access for renters and low income households who are often locked out of capital intensive technology.

Data and verification also improve because service contracts create measurable outcomes such as comfort hours avoided outages and on time trips which can anchor results based finance and where appropriate high integrity carbon and health crediting.

Near‑term service plays to watch:

  • Thermal comfort services for social housing and schools, combining envelope, heat pumps, and ventilation with pay‑as‑you‑save tariffs.
  • Cooling‑as‑a‑service in hot cities, linked to heat‑health plans and time‑of‑use pricing.
  • Clean‑cooking service subscriptions that bundle stoves, fuel access, and maintenance.
  • Mobility subscriptions that integrate transit, bike/scooter share, and first/last‑mile shuttles.
  • Reliability‑as‑a‑service for critical facilities, pairing rooftop solar, storage, and microgrids under performance contracts.

Wrap-up

So, did COP30 move the needle? The signal is moderate because the cover text uses transitions language that keeps 1.5°C on the agenda but it avoided a clear fossil phaseout.

The structure is useful since 2035 NDC guidance, adaptation metrics work, and the Brazil Presidency’s menu style implementation push give countries and cities a clearer runway to act.

The substance is still to be delivered, and the most credible progress now lies in national policy packages, subnational implementation, and service based business models that foreground health, affordability, comfort, and time.

Looking ahead, watch for the first wave of 2035 NDCs and whether they are economy-wide, IPCC-aligned, and grounded in just locally led transitions.

Track how quickly countries operationalize the Belém Health Action Plan in budgets, clinics, heat health systems, and clean air rules.

See whether cities and states move building retrofits, cooling programs, and transit upgrades from pilots to standardized and financeable portfolios.

Monitor whether ministries, school districts, and utilities begin procuring outcomes such as comfort, reliability, and trips at scale.

References

UNFCCC (22 Nov 2025). Outcomes Report of the Global Climate Action Agenda at COP 30. UNFCCC. https://unfccc.int/documents/655037

COP30 Presidency (15 Nov 2025). COP30 Evening Summary – November 15. COP30 Presidency. https://cop30.br/en/news-about-cop30/cop30-evening-summary-november-15

European Parliament (17 Nov 2025). COP30 outcome: slow progress, but insufficient to meet the climate crisis urgency. European Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/fr/press-room/20251117IPR31438/cop30-outcome-slow-progress-but-insufficient-to-meet-climate-crisis-urgency

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How to think about e-bikes and safety

E-bikes present new safety concerns. They are faster and therefore crashes are more prone to being serious compared with a conventional bike. And they are creating higher volumes of people traveling at a wider range of speeds on multiuse paths (MUPs).

They also let more people take short trips without a car. That reduces exposure to high-speed traffic and lowers crash energy on our streets. And they expand access for older adults, teens, and people facing long distances or hills.

So, e-bike safety is about e-bikes, but it’s also about how e-bikes can contribute to a safe and healthy transportation system overall. In sum, it’s about how we manage the mix of speeds and the quality of the places where we ride and walk.

Key issues to watch

Speed and mass. E-bikes are heavier and can be faster than acoustic bikes. Higher speeds raise stopping distance and crash severity. Managing speed where people mix is essential.

Street mixing with fast traffic. Many crashes involve overtaking by cars on streets without protection. Network gaps push riders to choose between stressful traffic or crowded paths.

Shared-path conflicts. Multiuse paths now host walkers, joggers, kids on scooters, and e-bikes at different speeds. Passing and speed differentials create risk, especially at blind corners and path intersections.

Youth riders. Teens are using e-bikes for school and jobs. Skills, judgment, and device choice vary. Parents and schools need clear guidance and training resources.

Battery and charging safety. Poor quality or damaged lithium-ion batteries can overheat or catch fire. Certified equipment, proper chargers, and safe charging locations reduce risk.

Device classification confusion. Class 1 and 2 e-bikes behave like bicycles in most settings. Higher-powered e-mopeds and DIY builds ride faster and weigh more. Lack of clarity leads to misuse of paths and sidewalks.

Visibility. Night riding without lights, poor lane positioning, and quiet approach can surprise others. Bells, lights, and predictable lines help.

Maintenance and equipment. Worn brakes, underinflated tires, and loose racks or child seats degrade handling. Regular checks matter more at higher speeds and loads.

Behavior and etiquette. Speeding near pedestrians, buzzing passes, wrong-way riding, distraction, and impairment drive a share of serious conflicts.

Where consensus is emerging

Design the street for safety. Lower default urban speeds to 20 to 25 miles per hour and accelerate the development of connected protected bike networks on higher speed or high volume streets.

Manage speed where people mix. Set and communicate clear expectations on multiuse paths. Slow zones near playgrounds and waterfronts, posted limits, and design cues that nudge lower speeds are gaining support.

Prioritize behavior over blanket bans. Target dangerous operation and conflict points rather than banning entire device categories. Focus rules on speed, yielding, and passing.

Clarify classes and align access. Treat Class 1 and 2 like bicycles in most places. Keep Class 3 to streets and protected lanes, not crowded trails. Require registration and equipment for e-mopeds where applicable.

Raise the bar on battery safety. Require or prefer UL certified systems for bikes, batteries, and chargers. Promote safe charging rooms, outdoor charging at hubs, and trade-ins for unsafe batteries.

Educate riders and families. Scalable training through schools, retailers, and community groups is effective. On-bike skills, route choice, and maintenance basics reduce risk fast.

Support delivery riders. Provide charging, secure parking, restrooms, and safe curb access. Partner with platforms and battery providers to phase in certified swappable batteries.

Use data to manage the mode. Track e-bike exposure, not only crashes. Distinguish device types in reports, capture near misses, and evaluate per-mile risk. Use this to target investments.

An agenda for communities

#1. Set safe speeds on local streets. Adopt 20 to 25 mile per hour defaults and use traffic calming so e-bikes and acoustic bikes can mix comfortably with cars.

#2. Build a connected protected network. Deliver continuous protected lanes on arterials and through tricky junctions. Fill the worst gaps first and connect homes to schools, jobs, and transit.

#3. Enhance traffic control at conflict points. Focus on intersections and places of low visibility with paint or other features, speed limit signs, mirrors where appropriate, and designs that slow users before conflict zones. Establish clear rules for paths and parks, with simple speed guidance, require yielding to pedestrians, and mark centerlines, slow zones, and blind corners. Back it with education before citations.

#4. Clarify device classes and access. Align local codes with Class 1, 2, and 3. Keep Class 3 off crowded trails. Define e-mopeds and require required equipment and registration where state law applies.

#5. Focus enforcement on the top risks. Target speeding, wrong-way riding, sidewalk riding in busy districts, and failure to yield at crosswalks. Use warnings and diversion to education before fines.

#6. Work with parents and school districts to help families make informed choices about purchasing and travel behavior. Help to differentiate between pedal-assist e-bikes and more powerful full electric motorcycles, often called e-motos. Provide onboarding experiences and guidance that support legal and safe operation that does not harm others.

#7. Launch rider education at scale. Partner with schools, libraries, and retailers for short hands-on classes. Include braking drills, lane positioning, night riding, and cargo or child-carrying tips.

#8. Make e-bike growth and success a goal of transportation planning. Explicitly measure and manage towards growth of the mode. Track access, safety outcomes, trip replacement of car miles, equity of who benefits, and total cost of travel, then manage toward targets.

#9. Measure and publish progress. Add device type fields to crash forms. Deploy counters that distinguish bikes and scooters. Report injuries per million trips and per million miles. Track car trip replacement and equity of access.

E-bike safety is about the promise that e-bikes can make us safer and healthier, especially by giving reedom to people experiencing financial stress and to those who are trapped without an alternative to driving.

E-bikes also offer a serious potential to replace cars and step down the high levels of kinetic energy and problematic driving, including distracted driving, that make our streets dangerous in the first place.

And so the ebike-safety opportunity is an integrated agenda that addresses issues specific to the technology while harnessing it to life all boats.

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How to make streets safe and turn Vision Zero into a reality

Today is the World Day of Remembrance for Road Traffic Victims, the third Sunday in November. It is a day to honor those lost and those living with life-changing injuries.

It is also a day to be clear about what it takes to stop preventable tragedies from taking place.

The losses are immense, with more than 40,000 people killed each year in the US, and an order of magnitude of people experiencing reported life-changing traffic injuries.

These experience are also uneven, varying from country to country and even from one city to the next.

First truth: Steady human transportation patterns are not accidents.

Severe crashes can feel random, but they are not. Their patterns come from choices we have made about how we design, manage, and enforce our transportation system.

Whatever state, county, or town you live in, you can bet on two things. First, there is a somewhat consistent level and trend in traffic fatalities from year to year. And two, there’s at least an order-of-magnitude jump in cases of life-changing injuries. You can take what happened this year and the fee before it, and pretty well predict what’s going to happen next year.

That yearly statistic is no accident. It’s a designed tolerance, and it is avoidable.

One proof is the big differences between places similar places a short distance apart. For example, Boulder, Colorado has about 3 fatal crashes per 100,000 residents while Thornton and Lakewood both exceed 12.

Whatever the local rate, until deaths and serious injuries are zero, the dominant cause is a system that allows the danger to persist.

Second truth: The dangers and solutions are known.

It is not a mystery what’s going on. Indeed, serious crashes are easy to research, and we know from study after study that they result from specific conditions. Some of those conditions:

  • Kinetic energy. Speed and mass drive harm. When speeds fall, survival rises. When vehicles are smaller and streets self-enforce safe speeds, mistakes are less deadly. That means lower default limits that are backed by design, protected space for people walking and biking, safer crossings, better lighting, and safer fleets and vehicle fronts in cities.
  • Consequences. People will make mistakes. Streets should forgive human error. Tighter corners, protected intersections, daylighted corners, roundabouts where they fit, and clear, visible crosswalks reduce the chance that a mistake becomes a fatal event.
  • Compulsion. Many people have no real choice but to drive for every trip, even short ones, regardless of age, ability, or mental awareness. That raises exposure and stress, especially at odd hours when alternatives are fewer and conditions are even less forgiving. Frequent and reliable transit, safe routes to school and senior destinations, protected micromobility networks, zoning that lets homes sit near daily needs, and smarter curb management give people real options.
  • Centrality. Policy, culture, and enforcement tend to center drivers and larger vehicles while shifting costs to everyone else. Safe System policies that put human life first, clear annual safety targets tied to funding and leadership performance, guardrails on vehicle size and weight in cities, equitable automated speed enforcement, and strong public and private fleet standards rebalance the system.

These dynamics are not about guesses. Cities that act to rebuild intersections, upgrade lighting, and mange speeds are bringing real reductions in deaths and serious injuries.

For advocates of safe streets, two questions come next. What commitments will make the most difference going forward? And how do we minimize preventable tragedy between now and full buildout by compressing timelines to delivery?

Third truth: Making big changes depends on being realistic and respectful about concerns, while doing the hard work of selling a better vision.

Safe streets is a good idea. It saves lives and makes daily life calmer, healthier, and more affordable.

It also brings change. Construction disrupts routines. New patterns take time to learn. Different concepts can conflict with long-held beliefs about how streets are supposed to work and what good transportation governance looks like.

However good staff are at the local public agency responsible for transportation, they are probably limited by elected officials. And those officials are typically not technical experts, so they listen to what they hear from community members.

In sum, safe streets is an excellent policy idea, but upstream from policy is politics, and culture is upstream from that.

So, to have more productive conversations with the community—and electeds—now and over time, use these methods:

Share the vision. What does the destination look like? What’s on the table, in vivid, compelling description? Why is life better for more people, including drivers?

Next, think about setting expectations for any kind of a remodel. You want to do it, but it’s still going to cause some uncertainty, disruption, and a pain. And it’s clearly obvious to anyone observing that you have changes planned that are going to affect their lives. So, say so upfront, listen, and build the list together.

From there, talk about what’s happening as an investment. There are pluses and minuses and we can see how they net out. And indeed, the near term is going to involve some costs, and we will do our best to mitigate them. But we are doing it so we can have something better.

You won’t win everyone. But it is a way to build important support—and minimize easy ways future electeds can reverse course—over time.

A call to action

Finally, the hard part: Commit to sharing these concepts with your local elected officials or agencies at least once per quarter in the year ahead. Pick a city, county, school district, MPO, or state DOT and rotate.

Using these themes as a guide, send a short letter or give two minutes of public comment. Alternatively, write an op-ed in your local paper or speak at a local community event.

If you are already doing this quarterly or more, thank you. Now bring a friend.

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Primer on transit-oriented development

Transit-oriented development concentrates daily life within a 5 to 10 minute walk of high-quality buses, trains, and ferries. The goal is to make transit along with walking and biking the easiest choices for most trips and to reduce car dependence without sacrificing access or opportunity.

Transit-oriented development is a practical way to unite transportation and housing objectives into a single mutually reinforcing framework. When cities plan homes, jobs, shops, parks, and schools around reliable transit the result is shorter trips safer streets lower household costs and stronger local economies.

Key characteristics

Great station areas are compact and mixed use. Homes offices retail schools civic buildings and services sit close together so errands and commutes are simple.

Density belongs at stations. The most active uses and the greatest height are closest to transit and then step down into surrounding neighborhoods.

Design favors people on foot and on bikes. Think short blocks safe crossings active ground floors shade and trees lighting and minimal setbacks.

Access is truly multimodal. Protected bike lanes secure bike parking clear wayfinding and well managed pick up and drop off keep people moving comfortably.

Parking is right sized and managed. Cities reduce or remove minimums unbundle parking from leases share district parking and price the curb.

Transit is frequent and reliable all day. Service every few minutes with seamless transfers and comfortable stations makes the system a default choice.

Mix matters. A range of housing types and prices together with community services supports inclusion and long term stability.

Some examples

Arlington Virginia focused growth along the Rosslyn Ballston corridor with closely spaced Metro stations. Mixed use buildings and excellent streets delivered strong ridership and lively main streets.

Hoboken New Jersey used PATH ferries and frequent buses plus parking reform and infill to enable very low car ownership and thriving street life.

Somerville Massachusetts paired the Green Line Extension with upzoning new housing safer streets and active station plazas.

Cambridge Massachusetts used Red Line station areas and strong bike networks to grow mixed use districts while holding car use down.

Evanston Illinois adopted station area overlays near CTA and Metra reduced parking and enabled missing middle housing near Main and Dempster.

Shaker Heights Ohio created the Van Aken District at a light rail terminus with housing retail and public space on a walkable grid.

Normal Illinois built Uptown Station for Amtrak and local buses then added civic anchors streetscape upgrades and infill that supports small businesses.

Hillsboro Oregon built Orenco Station near MAX light rail with fine grained blocks mid rise housing and neighborhood retail.

Beaverton Oregon intensified around MAX with new housing offices and public spaces at Beaverton Central and nearby stations.

Pasadena California planned around Gold Line stations including Del Mar with mixed use buildings reduced parking and walkable streets.

Santa Monica California anchored the Expo Line terminus with a downtown specific plan plus a strong bike network to support car light living.

Tempe Arizona focused housing and jobs along light rail and the streetcar with unbundled parking and good bike and transit integration.

Rockville Maryland built a town center around Metrorail with housing retail and civic uses and a connected street grid.

Redmond Washington upzoned station areas before Link light rail arrived and is adding thousands of homes and jobs with strong bike access.

Fort Collins Colorado created the MAX BRT with station plans mixed use zoning and safe connections between the university and downtown.

Grand Rapids Michigan aligned BRT corridors with infill housing parking reform and better walking and biking connections.

La Mesa California revitalized its village and trolley stations with small lot infill and safer walking and cycling.

Englewood Colorado redeveloped a light rail site as CityCenter with civic facilities housing retail and a walkable block network.

San Leandro California advanced station area plans for Downtown and Bay Fair with upzoning reduced parking and public realm upgrades.

What it takes to make TOD work

Transit must be frequent reliable and comfortable. Give buses priority in traffic ensure short waits and make transfers easy.

Land use policy must allow mixed use and enough homes near stations. Upzone where the transit is and adopt clear form and design standards. Enable missing middle housing by right in walksheds.

Parking and demand management keep driving optional. Lower or eliminate minimums unbundle costs share parking and price the curb.

The public realm must feel great. Calm traffic shorten crossings build protected bike networks and create welcoming station plazas.

Equity must be built in. Use inclusionary housing community land trusts right to return policies rent stabilization where allowed anti eviction measures and small business support.

Governance and finance matter. Coordinate across departments use value capture such as tax increment financing and special districts and pursue joint development and air rights where feasible.

Market readiness and phasing help projects stick. Lead with civic anchors allow flexible ground floors and deliver projects in manageable phases.

Operations count. Keep stations and public spaces clean well lit secure and easy to navigate and program them with regular activity.

Benefits

Mobility improves and emissions fall. People make more trips by foot bike and transit which reduces vehicle miles traveled and traffic injuries.

Housing supply increases where access is best. Families spend less on transportation which improves overall affordability.

Local economies gain. Foot traffic supports small businesses and mixed use districts improve productivity and resilience.

Public finances benefit. Compact neighborhoods use infrastructure efficiently and produce more tax revenue per acre.

Health and social connection rise. Daily physical activity increases streets get safer and access to opportunity expands.

Pitfalls to avoid

Displacement can occur if values rise without protections. Plan for mixed income housing and small business stability from the start.

Transit without supportive land use underperforms. Upzoning without credible transit also disappoints. The two must move together.

Too much parking and fast arterials undermine walkability and transit use. Create people first streets and manage parking supply and price.

Isolated megaprojects with inward facing superblocks and blank podiums deaden the street. Favor a fine grained public network.

Mandated retail on every ground floor can create vacancies. Concentrate active uses where foot traffic supports them and allow other lively frontages elsewhere.

Ignoring buses and bikes harms first and last mile access. Make bus service great and bike access safe.

Putting park and ride lots on prime station land wastes opportunity. Reserve those sites for homes jobs services and public space.

Common misconceptions

You do not need skyscrapers. Mid rise buildings on a connected street grid often deliver excellent outcomes.

Rail is not the only path. Bus rapid transit and frequent bus networks can support strong transit oriented places when speed and reliability are protected.

Building transit does not guarantee development. Zoning the public realm and market conditions all matter.

Transit oriented development does not mean zero parking. It means the right amount shared and priced in a way that supports the street.

Density alone is not TOD. Without walkability mixed uses and frequent service it will not change travel habits.

TOD does not automatically cause gentrification. Outcomes depend on policy design protections and region wide housing supply.

What city councils need to do

Adopt a clear station area vision that prioritizes homes near transit safe streets and economic inclusion.

Change the rules to allow mixed use and mid to high rise buildings within a half mile of stations.

Eliminate or cap parking minimums and require parking to be unbundled from leases. Allow missing middle housing by right in walksheds.

Hardwire equity through inclusionary housing right to return protections and support for community land trusts and small businesses.

Enable by right approvals when projects match the plan and use objective design standards.

Create value capture districts dedicate a share to affordable housing and the public realm and authorize joint development.

Set measurable targets and report progress each year.

What city managers and local government executives need to do

Stand up a cross functional implementation team that includes planning transportation housing public works legal and finance.

Align the capital plan so utility upgrades complete streets station plazas and bike networks arrive when or before private projects do.

Improve transit reliability with bus lanes signal priority and thoughtful curb management and coordinate service and fares with transit agencies.

Negotiate development agreements that deliver mixed income housing public space and district parking solutions and use joint development and air rights where assets allow.

Use public parcels to de risk early phases and favor long term ground leases over fee sales when possible.

Budget for cleaning lighting security and activation of public spaces and enforce parking and curb policies.

Communicate clearly about tradeoffs construction mitigation and benefits throughout delivery.

What staff planners and subject matter experts need to do

Write station area zones with clear standards for form height floor area and frontage. Allow flexible ground floors and a range of housing types.

Set low or zero parking minimums require unbundling and allow shared and off site parking and demand based curb pricing.

Design streets for people with low stress bike networks shorter crossings daylighted corners slower design speeds and shade and stormwater features.

Plan first and last mile access with wayfinding secure bike parking and well managed pickup and drop off. Bake in inclusionary requirements anti displacement strategies and small business support and monitor outcomes by income and race.

Where applicable use programmatic CEQA and NEPA strategies objective standards and pre approved plan sets to accelerate compliant projects.

Track mode share VMT parking use housing delivery affordability retail performance and safety and publish the data.

Partner early with transit agencies schools utilities employers hospitals universities and community organizations.

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Transportation needs a purpose—and that purpose should be about wellbeing

Transportation is full of surprises.

One of them: The whole enterprise is generally managed without a logical overall purpose.

It’s true there are lots of transportation metrics: Vehicle miles traveled (VMT), number of people killed or seriously injured (KSI), modeshare, and travel time, for starters.

But what is the problem transportation is supposed to be solving to begin with?

If you said something like “to get people where they need to go,” you’d have company. That’s a common response.

And the surface, it makes sense.

But consider this:

  • For the vast majority of cases, people don’t travel just to make the trip. They travel for another reason—they seek to reach or connect with something specific.
  • Most people spend a large amount of money and time on their travel because few people have access to options that compete with owning and driving long distances in a car. People with lower incomes pay the highest cost: They spend a higher share of their income on driving, which is often a real strain, and the burden falls most to people who can’t afford or find housing close to their daily destinations.
  • The placement of housing and key destinations like jobs, schools, and grocery stores doesn’t happen by luck. Public agencies govern what is allowed to be located where And they govern the allocation of rights, privileges, and funding among different ways people get around.

And so back in reality, thinking about the purpose of transportation as moving vehicles (principally treating cars) for the sake of moving vehicles is actually circular.

It is therefore not surprising that the transportation system, despite 100+ years of development of the car, is making us steadily poorer, sicker, and more divided, it’s one of the most likely things to kill us, and it is one of the top sources of our climate crisis.

To get our arms around the the metrics we care about, and more important, to make transportation work for us, it would help to give the system a more unified logical purpose—and one that is focused on providing measurable human benefit and doing so efficiently.

There are contenders—like access (or access to opportunity) and a subset of that, 15-minute neighborhoods.

But there is so much to do to refine and integrate those and related concepts into policy.

Cities, counties, states, and other jurisdictions who are in a position to update big-picture plans and policies could find big opportunities in this realm.

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Good parking: What we know now about effective policy and management


Over the past two decades, parking policy has evolved from a supply-maximizing, one-size-fits-all practice to an outcome-driven system that advances climate goals, public health, equity, and local vitality.

What we know now: Managing parking and mobility more deliberately—which includes eliminating minimums and pricing for availability to sharing, unbundling, and dynamic curb management—helps cities use scarce public space more fairly and efficiently, supports safer, healthier streets, and lowers housing and business costs, all while reducingt driving and emissions.

What began as pilots and academic critiques is now mainstream policy and practice across North America and globally.

How the field has evolved

From mandates to management: Cities are replacing minimum parking requirements with performance-based tools, shared supply, and right-sizing.

From traffic to climate, health, and equity: Research links excess parking to higher VMT/GHGs, air pollution, heat, stormwater impacts, injuries, and housing cost burdens; reforms now center equity and public health benefits.

From static supply to dynamic systems: Demand-responsive pricing, occupancy targets (roughly 70–85%), transparent adjustments, and data-informed enforcement are standard in leading programs.

From lots to the curb: The curb is dynamically allocated among loading, transit, micromobility, pick-up/drop-off, and short-stay parking, with pricing and time-slicing to match demand and city goals.

From pilots to policy: Early demonstrations (e.g., SFpark) paved the way for broad local reforms and state-level actions linking parking to climate and housing goals.

Key concepts

Minimums vs. maximums and caps: Minimum requirements induce excess supply; many places now eliminate minimums and, in some contexts, set caps.

Performance pricing: Adjust rates to meet occupancy targets, cutting cruising and emissions while improving availability.

Unbundling and cash-out: Sell/lease parking separately and offer employees the cash value of parking; both reduce car ownership and VMT.

Parking Benefit Districts (PBDs): Reinvest a portion of revenue locally to build support and deliver visible neighborhood improvements.

Shared/district parking: Pool supply across uses and time periods to shrink total stalls and avoid new construction.

Lifecycle impacts: Account for embodied and operational carbon of parking structures in capital decisions.

Equity-centered design: Pair pricing with income-based discounts, accessible payment options, targeted permits, and safer street design.

Curbside management: Digitize inventory, standardize use categories, and price high-demand loading and short stays.

Manage by outcomes: Track occupancy, turnover, compliance, mode share, VMT/GHG, safety, and local economic indicators—not just stall counts.

Implications for policymakers

Align codes with climate and housing: Repeal or reduce minimums, allow shared/district parking, require unbundling, and offer TDM in lieu of on-site stalls.

Enable performance pricing: Authorize dynamic meter/permit rates, curb-use fees, and special zones; require transparent adjustment protocols and reporting.

Put people and transit first: Prioritize safety, accessibility, transit reliability, and freight efficiency in curb allocations.

Center equity: Mandate income-based discounts, accessible payment options, and community oversight; avoid exemptions that undermine outcomes.

Reinvest locally: Establish PBDs to fund sidewalks, lighting, trees, transit passes, and safety improvements.

Modernize enforcement: Update legal authority, due process, and technology to support high compliance and fair treatment.

Measure and publish: Require regular reporting on availability, turnover, compliance, revenue/reinvestment, and climate/health co-benefits.

Implications for parking and mobility design professionals

Start with outcomes: Set clear targets (availability, GHG/VMT, safety, equity) and design pricing, permits, and curb allocations to hit them.

Replace ratios with strategies: Support elimination/reduction of minimums; enable shared/district parking, TDM alternatives, and unbundling.

Price to manage: Implement demand-responsive pricing with simple rate bands, occupancy targets, and routine adjustments.

Pair pricing with equity: Offer low-income discounts, neighborhood caps, mobility credits, and underbanked payment options; reinvest locally via PBDs.

Make the curb work: Segment, time-slice, and price curb uses; protect transit and bike lanes; use clear signage and digital permits.

Quantify carbon and cost: Include embodied/operational carbon and lifecycle costs in alternatives; prioritize retrofit/shared use over new builds.

Build interoperable systems: Choose tech that supports dynamic pricing, compliance, open data (where appropriate), privacy, and integrations (LPR, payments, sensors).

Pilot, evaluate, iterate: Start small, publish results (availability, turnover, cruising, sales tax, emissions), and scale what works.

How policymakers and parking/mobility design professionals can work together

Co-create goals and guardrails: Policymakers set outcomes and equity standards; practitioners translate them into program design and operations.

Pilot-to-policy pipeline: Practitioners run pilots and evaluations; policymakers codify and scale effective practices.

Align reinvestment: Agree on PBD frameworks that return a portion of revenue to affected neighborhoods; communicate early and often.

Operationalize equity: Jointly design discounts, accessible payment options, and targeted permits; audit outcomes and adjust.

Coordinate the curb: Maintain shared, digital curb inventories and standard use categories; plan time-slicing across modes and freight.

Govern continuous improvement: Establish processes for routine price adjustments, allocation changes, and tech upgrades with community representation.

References

PubMed Central (2024). Parking and Public Health. National Library of Medicine, PMC. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11631998/

Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (2022). To Tackle Climate Change, Cities Need to Rethink Parking. ITDP. https://itdp.org/2022/09/20/to-tackle-climate-change-cities-need-to-rethink-parking/

Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (2021). On-Street Parking Management: An International Toolkit. ITDP. https://www.itdp.org/publication/on-street-parking-management-international-toolkit/

American Planning Association (2019). Policy Guide on Parking and Mobility. APA. https://www.planning.org/policy/guides/parkingmobility/

Donald Shoup (ed.) (2018). Parking and the City. Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/Parking-and-the-City/Shoup/p/book/9781138494969

International Transport Forum, OECD (2018). The Shared-Use City: Managing the Curb. ITF-OECD. https://www.itf-oecd.org/shared-use-city-managing-curb

Alan Durning (2018). Parking? Lots! Sightline Institute. https://www.sightline.org/series/parking-lots/

Todd Litman (2016). Parking Management Best Practices (2nd ed.). Routledge. https://www.routledge.com/Parking-Management-Best-Practices/Litman/p/book/9781138202410

Mikhail V. Chester et al. (2015). Parking infrastructure: energy, emissions, and automobile life-cycle environmental externalities. Environmental Research Letters. https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/8/084027

Richard W. Willson (2015). Parking Management for Smart Growth. Island Press. https://islandpress.org/books/parking-management-smart-growth

Paul Barter (2015). Parking Management: A Contribution Towards Sustainable Urban Transport. GIZ SUTP. https://sutp.org/publications/parking-management-a-contribution-towards-sustainable-urban-transport/

San Francisco Municipal Transportation Agency (2014). SFpark Pilot Project Evaluation. SFMTA. https://sfpark.org/resources/evaluation/
Michael Manville (2014). Parking Requirements and Housing Affordability. Access Magazine. https://www.accessmagazine.org/fall-2014/parking-requirements-and-housing-affordability/

Michael Manville (2013). Parking Requirements and Housing Development: Regulation and Reform in Los Angeles. Journal of the American Planning Association. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01944363.2013.785346

Richard W. Willson (2013). Parking Reform Made Easy. Island Press. https://islandpress.org/books/parking-reform-made-easy

Donald Shoup (2011). The High Cost of Free Parking. Planners Press/APA. https://shoup.bol.ucla.edu/the-high-cost-of-free-parking/

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (2006). Parking Spaces/Community Places: Finding the Balance through Smart Growth Solutions. US EPA. https://www.epa.gov/smartgrowth/parking-spacescommunity-places-finding-balance-through-smart-growth-solutions

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Key climate solutions for communities

To unlock new climate progress, apply the power of local communities. Communities are key to most of the climate action needed as well as types of action that can make daily life safer, healthier, and more affordable for everyone.

What follows is a list of community‑oriented solutions that:

  • Are key areas of climate action overall;
  • Offer some of the most effective climate opportunities for communities;
  • Fall within local authority and influence, representing unique power by communities; and
  • Advance equity and public wellbeing, which can lead the way to support for doing more.

Estimates reflect typical North American urban conditions and results vary by context.

#1. Make it legal and attractive to put housing near destinations, and amenities near homes: Reform zoning for more homes in job‑ and transit‑rich areas, permit “missing middle” housing and accessory units, reduce minimum parking, enable small mixed‑use corner stores, clinics, and childcare, and streamline approvals for affordability and inclusion. 

Infill homes lower household VMT 20–40% versus sprawl; shifting 10–20% of growth to infill can cut regional on‑road emissions ~2–6% over a decade, while multifamily/attached homes use 10–30% less energy per unit. If 40%+ of new housing is transit‑oriented, metro transport emissions can fall 10–20% by 2040, with shorter trips, lower costs, and inclusionary policies reducing displacement pressures.

#2. Neutralize the threat of being killed or seriously injured by a driver: Design streets to self‑enforce safe speeds, build connected, protected bike networks, daylight intersections, prioritize pedestrians at crossings, and target high‑injury corridors with data‑driven design, paired with fair enforcement and universal access to safe mobility. 

Such programs typically cut VMT 3–10% citywide within 5–10 years (about 2–8% on‑road CO2e, or 1–4% of total community emissions), with sustained mode shift reducing per‑capita transport emissions 20–50% over 10–20 years. Fewer severe crashes, reliable low‑cost mobility during fuel price spikes or outages, and better access to jobs and services especially benefit low‑income residents, youth, seniors, and people with disabilities.

#3. Deliver high‑quality walking, bicycling, and public transit for everyone: Build safe, direct bike routes and frequent, reliable transit with all‑door boarding, bus lanes, and integrated fares, and complete trips with wayfinding, lighting, benches, shade, and safe crossings. Network upgrades and service improvements reduce corridor VMT 5–15% and citywide 3–10%, and over time enable car‑light lifestyles that can halve household transport emissions. Redundant, multimodal networks also keep people moving during storms and outages while cutting mobility costs and improving access to essentials.

#4. Create abundant places to meet, interact, and belong outside of commerce: Invest in parks, plazas, libraries, greenways, and car‑free streets with free programming, designed for comfort—trees, water, seating, restrooms—and cultural expression. 

Nearby amenities reduce short car trips (often 0.5–2% VMT citywide) and shaded, tree‑rich public spaces lower cooling demand for adjacent buildings. Social infrastructure strengthens mutual aid, and shade and cooling reduce heat risk while free programming expands wellbeing without raising household costs.

#5. Restore and steward nature in the city with climate‑resilient landscaping and urban forestry:  Install bioswales, rain gardens, permeable pavements, and green roofs; landscape with native, drought‑tolerant species; expand and equitably distribute tree canopy; and restore wetlands, riparian corridors, dunes, and living shorelines. 

Shade and evapotranspiration cut cooling loads 5–30% for shaded buildings (roughly 0.05–0.3 tCO2e per home per year), while each new street tree sequesters 10–25 kg CO2 annually; 100,000 trees store 1–2.5 ktCO2e per year and avoid more via energy savings. Citywide canopy gains of 10 percentage points can reduce peak electricity demand 2–5%, while bioswales and rain gardens reduce flooding and heat in historically underserved neighborhoods.

#6. Grow local, plant‑rich food for health, climate, and resilience: Support community gardens, urban farms, edible landscaping, school gardens, greenhouses and rooftop farms; expand farmers markets and CSAs with SNAP matching; prioritize culturally appropriate crops and cut food waste. 

Plant‑rich diets reduce 0.5–1.6 tCO2e per person per year, while shorter cold chains for local produce trim 10–50 kg per person annually and compost‑amended soils store additional carbon. These measures increase food security, lower food bills, build community cohesion, and create local jobs and skills.

#7. Turn waste into soil with municipal composting: Provide universal organics collection (including multifamily) and business service, convenient drop‑offs, clear bin standards, and edible food recovery, and apply finished compost in parks, street trees, and urban agriculture. 

Diverting 1 t of food scraps from landfill avoids 0.2–0.6 tCO2e; with 75% diversion, communities avoid 20–80 kg CO2e per person annually, and compost use adds soil carbon and displaces synthetic fertilizer, totaling 40–120 kg per person per year. Programs create local jobs, improve soils that retain water, support urban food, and reduce odors and pests near facilities often sited in low‑income areas.

#8. Create systems for water conservation and efficiency: Offer instant‑rebate upgrades for high‑efficiency fixtures and appliances, smart irrigation, and turf replacement with climate‑appropriate landscaping; deploy smart meters with leak alerts; promote rainwater harvesting and safe graywater reuse; and set fair, affordability‑protected rates. 

Hot‑water efficiency (fixtures plus heat‑pump water heaters) lowers 0.6–1.8 tCO2e per home per year, while outdoor water efficiency and smart irrigation save 50–200 kg per home via the water‑energy nexus; utility‑scale leak detection and efficiency can cut water‑system electricity use 10–30%. The result is lower bills, improved drought resilience, reduced shutoff risk, and cooler neighborhoods where turf gives way to drought‑tolerant landscapes.

#9. Make buildings efficient and electric: Require and finance tight envelopes, passive cooling (shade, ventilation), and all‑electric systems; add rooftop solar and vehicle‑to‑home readiness; and harden for heat, smoke, fires, and floods. 

Typical retrofits and heat pumps save 1–3 tCO2e per home per year, heat‑pump water heaters 0.5–1.5 t, and induction 0.1–0.3 t; retrofitting 2–3% of stock annually cuts building emissions 3–7% in five years, and with grid decarbonization achieves 60–90% cuts by 2040–2050. Efficient envelopes keep homes habitable during outages, indoor air is healthier without combustion, and targeted no‑cost programs reduce energy poverty.

#10. Make electrification available for virtually everything—and beneficial to users: Provide simple, up‑front rebates for heat pumps, induction, electric water heaters, cars, e‑bikes, and chargers; implement equitable rates, managed charging, and community solar; and invest in workforce training and local contractors. 

Accelerated adoption increases cumulative 2030 reductions 10–30% versus slow rollout; each e‑bike that replaces car trips avoids ~0.3–1 tCO2e per year, and each home fuel‑switch avoids 1–3 tCO2e annually. Lower operating costs and cleaner air accrue broadly when access programs ensure renters and low‑income households benefit first.

#11. Build shared, neighborhood‑scale clean energy and resilience: Create resilience centers with solar, batteries, clean‑air rooms, and cooling/warming, link buildings via microgrids, deploy district geothermal/geoexchange networks, organize block commitments to decommission gas laterals and upgrade electrical capacity, and add curbside and hub EV charging. 

District geothermal cuts heating/cooling energy 30–60% and GHGs 40–80% today; microgrids with solar+storage reduce feeder peaks and displace diesel backup (1–3% local electricity emissions), and coordinated gas retirement plus electrification can eliminate 10–20% of total city emissions from building combustion and leakage over two decades. Shared systems keep critical services powered, lower costs for renters and small businesses, and should be prioritized in frontline neighborhoods.

#12. Keep people collectively safe from disasters, shocks, and stressors: Combine nature‑based defenses (trees, wetlands, dunes) with modern standards (cool roofs, updated codes, elevation, floodable parks), add resilient hubs, cooling centers, and clear risk communication, and plan jointly for heat, smoke, floods, and outages. 

These measures safeguard crucial clean energy and other assets that reduce emissions, contribute to a faster adoption of such systems and reduce the likelihood of maladaptations such as increased use of diesel generators, and prevent high‑emission disaster recovery and support reliable operation of clean energy systems. Clean air and cooling access, language‑inclusive alerts, and social infrastructure protect those most exposed.

#13. Tamp down air pollution across its many sources. Tackle tailpipes and smokestacks together with land use, travel‑demand fixes, and clean technology: legalize compact, mixed‑use infill near jobs and transit and pair it with transportation demand management (congestion and curb pricing, employer commute benefits, school travel plans, demand‑based parking, delivery consolidation) to shorten trips, cut VMT and idling, and curb non‑exhaust PM. Accelerate zero‑emission cars, buses, and trucks; electrify buildings; restrict the dirtiest vehicles in dense areas; and expand urban forests and cool corridors. Focus on ports, freight corridors, and overburdened neighborhoods with shore power, yard‑equipment electrification, clean‑truck rules, and fenceline monitoring. Drive down PM2.5 (including diesel black carbon and brake/tire/road dust), PM10, NOx, SO2, VOCs and air toxics (e.g., benzene, formaldehyde, 1,3‑butadiene), carbon monoxide, and methane leaks that fuel ozone—verified with continuous monitoring and transparent public reporting.

Greenhouse‑gas benefits start with light‑duty vehicles: citywide VMT reduction of 3–10% from compact development and TDM typically yields ~2–8% on‑road CO2e cuts in 5–10 years; sustained mode shift to walking, biking, and transit can lower per‑capita transport emissions 20–50% over 10–20 years; and rapid LDV electrification adds 60–90% per‑mile CO2e reductions as grids decarbonize, with each e‑bike that replaces car trips avoiding ~0.3–1 tCO2e per year. Building electrification removes on‑site combustion; each e‑bus avoids ~50–80 tCO2e annually; and medium/heavy‑duty truck electrification cuts 60–95% per‑mile CO2e, while area‑focused clean‑air zones deliver additional, localized multi‑percent transport‑sector cuts. Health gains are largest for residents near ports, warehouses, and arterials, and fewer combustion appliances indoors reduce asthma triggers.

#14. Invest in public infrastructure efficiently and price disproportionate impacts fairly: Use lifecycle cost and carbon accounting, standardized designs, open data, and fair user fees such as weight‑ and distance‑based road charges, curb and congestion pricing, demand‑based parking, and stormwater fees tied to impervious areas, all with protections for low‑income users. 

Congestion and curb pricing reduce VMT 10–20% in priced zones and 2–5% citywide, demand‑based parking trims 2–4%, and stable revenue enables sustained transit and active‑mode expansion that underpins 10–20% transport‑sector cuts over time. Pairing pricing with income‑based discounts and reinvestment delivers fairer outcomes and lowers long‑run costs.

#15. Save money and materials with sharing and lending: Launch tool, toy, sports‑gear, and baby‑gear libraries; repair cafes and fix‑it clinics; clothing swaps and reuse marketplaces; and shared equipment for schools and small businesses, in partnership with public libraries for memberships and reservations. 

Avoided production dominates the climate benefit—sharing a handful of seldom‑used items can avert 50–200 kg CO2e per person per year, with mature programs achieving 0.1–1% community‑wide cuts and broader normalization of reuse delivering 2–5% consumption‑based reductions by 2035. These programs provide low‑cost access to essentials and skills and build social networks that matter in emergencies.

#16. Offer local services and experiences as affordable alternatives to high consumption:  Invest in arts and culture passes, maker spaces, community kitchens, skill‑shares, recreation, local tourism, and nature access, and support small businesses that provide repair, care, wellness, and learning, using vouchers and memberships to ensure inclusion. 

Shifting 5% of household spend from goods to low‑carbon services and experiences reduces ~0.2–0.8 tCO2e per household per year, with scaled programs cutting community consumption‑based emissions 1–3% over time. The result is more wellbeing per dollar, local jobs and skills, and inclusive access to community life.

#17. Organize public decision‑making around measurable collective wellbeing: 

Use participatory budgeting, citizens’ assemblies, language access, evidence‑based pilots and A/B tests, transparent dashboards, and delivery‑focused timelines that give frontline communities real power, not just voice. 

Faster, smarter adoption increases cumulative reductions—programs that double deployment rates can boost 2030 impact 10–30% versus business‑as‑usual rollout—while policies reflecting lived experience deliver fairer, more durable outcomes.

#18. Make large‑scale change possible and practical: Build project pipelines and pattern books, pre‑approve typical designs, procure at scale, train a climate‑ready workforce, and start with quick‑build projects that become permanent as data show benefits.

Standardization and bulk buys lower costs and speed deployment across sectors, compounding reductions, while predictable pipelines create local careers and let small and minority‑owned firms compete and thrive.

Putting it all together

Communities that pursue these strategies in parallel can plausibly cut total emissions 35–60% by 2035 (from a 2020s baseline) while reducing heat and flood risk, improving air quality, lowering household bills, and creating good local jobs. The fastest paths pair demand reduction (land use, mobility, efficiency), rapid electrification, neighborhood‑scale clean energy, water and materials stewardship, and joyful, lower‑consumption ways of living—implemented through equitable programs that prioritize those with the greatest energy and health burdens.

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To electrify transportation faster, look beyond vehicles to urbanism—and electrify that

To electrify transportation, we have to swap gas cars for battery-powered ones.

Just as important is the system they run on: The location of origins and destinations. How the roads and parking work. The relative status among the different modes–including the emerging classes of hyper-efficient micromobility vehicles. What is a normal way to get something a quarter mile a way. To move across town.

Compact development multiplies electrification’s possibilities

In a more compact community, each charger, bus depot, and e-bike corral serves more trips. Such locational efficiency translates to higher utilization which lowers cost per electrified trip and accelerates payback on infrastructure. That increases returns on investment.

Shorter, more frequent trips better enable micromobility and transit. Public and workplace charging reach more users, and fleet duty cycles become more predictable. That means more people and trips served.

Dense, connected neighborhoods support an ecosystem of e-bikes, e-cargo bikes, scooters, neighborhood EVs, electric transit, shared fleets, and zero-emission delivery. That spreads benefits and reduces battery and grid needs.

Clustering buildings, parked vehicles, and loads in closer to one another enables managed charging, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) with school and transit buses, building-vehicle coordination, and neighborhood microgrids—boosting flexibility and resilience. That means more opportunities to create fuller ecosystems of electrification in which different uses support one another.

High-ridership, short-route corridors can more cost-effectively match battery duty cycles, simplify depot design, and enable reliable layover or on-route charging. When land use supports frequent service, electric buses reach lower total cost of ownership faster and deliver bigger air-quality gains. That means better transit electrification economics.

Compact form cuts miles driven, trims parking and road costs, and lowers household transportation expenses. Savings from fewer cars and less asphalt can be reinvested in charging, transit, safe streets, and building upgrades. That means savings for household and municaplities.

Denser electrification makes way for tipping points

Full electrification at scale requires existing neighborhoods and districts to to step away existing from natural gas distribution systems in big leaps. Large chunks of existing shared infrastructure needs to be retired in coordinated investments to avoid leaving a minority of ratepayers with stranded assets and impossibly high costs. The process needs a critical mass of subscribers.

Urbanism methods–compact development combined with community-scale planning–can help make transportation electrification investments play a key supportive role. By pairing infill housing and mixed-use development with transit, depot charging, e-mobility hubs, and building heat pumps, districts concentrate flexible electric load.

The payoff: Fully-electrified towns that make use of electric transportation even more.

“Avoiding” travel and “shifting” modes first increases returns

Research shows the most cost-effective way to deliver maximum electrification services for the fewest energy requirements and environmental harm is in the “avoid–shift–improve” framework (ASI).

ASI prescribes avoiding unnecessary demand for a service in the first place; then shifting remaining demand to inherently lower-impact modes, energy carriers, places, or times; and finally, improving the efficiency and cleanliness of technologies and infrastructure that still serve that demand.

Urbanism is fundamental to the first two aspects. The most direct way to “avoid” is compact, complete neighborhoods that reduce trip lengths and vehicle-miles traveled (VMT). And fundamental to”shifting” is safe, reliable transit and protected bike networks that move trips to efficient modes suited to small batteries.

“Avoiding” and “shifting” before “improving” to electrification saves resources by requiring fewer batteries, chargers, and grid upgrades to meet the same mobility needs. It lowers net cost and raises accessibility, since short trips fit low-cost e-bikes and walking and high-utilization charging cuts per-trip costs. And it frees up cash—city capital once aimed at road widening and parking, plus household savings from ditching a second car, can fund more charging, transit, and building electrification.

Urbanism creates new EV opportunities for equity (and durability)

Urbanism provides a way to focus on electrifying the modes that are key to making sure everyone is served—buses, shared fleets, e-bikes, and neighborhood carshare—and where air pollution burdens and cost pressures are highest.

Such a lense can help to elevate electric buses and bus rapid transit in high-ridership corridors with bus-priority lanes; protected bike networks with e-bike purchase, charging, and maintenance support; on-street and multi-family charging in renter-heavy and lower-income neighborhoods; and community ownership models and fare policies that reduce total mobility costs.

This spreads benefits beyond car owners and builds a wider coalition for outcomes that are more likely to be lasting.

Some implications

As the synergies beween urbanism and electrification come to more light, so to does the opportunities for agencies and experts working on them to address the issues together.

Public utility commissions have a stake in VMT. Per-capita VMT reduction and electrified trip share are relevant planning metrics. Encouragement is sensible for utility programs that support location-efficient electrification with make-readies for multi-family housing, depot charging for transit and delivery fleets, managed charging, and V2G. Coordinate electric upgrades with targeted gas decommissioning as districts densify and electrify.

Electric vehicle advocates have a stake in advocating compact development to cities. They can promote zoning reform near jobs and transit, parking reform, complete streets and protected bike lanes, bus lanes, and curb management that prioritizes transit and zero-emission delivery.

Cities and municipal planning organizatons have a stake in targets for electrified trip share and per-capita VMT, not just EV registrations. They can aopt EV-ready and e-bike-ready building codes that require conduit and panel capacity in multi-family and commercial projects; site charging facilities to maxomise utilization at depots, mobility hubs, main streets, and curbside at multi-family buildings; and support e-cargo logistics and consolidation centers to cut van miles.

Transit agencies which seek to electrify high-frequency routes first have a similar stake in supporting greater density as well as protected lanes and other infrastructure to support a better service experience and more riders. More on the technology side, they can align schedules for layover charging, design depots for future V2G revenue and resilience, and pair bus electrification with bus-priority street design to amplify benefits.

Utilities have a stake in buiding an ecosystem that rewards them for expeditiously electrifying everything while providing maximum public benefits. In the near term they can offer fleet and multi-family tariffs with managed charging and capacity subscription options, fund make-readies in disadvantaged communities and at mobility hubs, and deploy more school-bus and transit-bus V2G where feeders are constrained, and coordinate with building electrification to enable gas main retirement.

States and departments of transportation can tie transportation funding to per-capita VMT reduction and electrified trip growth, streamline permitting for curbside and depot charging and for utility upgrades tied to district electrification, and synchronize clean power timelines with transport electrification to maximize emissions cuts.

Employers and developers can site near frequent transit and bikeways, replace parking minimums with mobility benefits, provide e-bike and transit stipends, install shared and open-access charging and secure e-bike parking, and convert last-mile delivery to e-cargo bikes where feasible.

Bottom line

Use urbanism to right-size the transportation challenge—shorter trips, more choices, closer destinations—and electrify mobility and buildings as you build compact, complete neighborhoods. Do that, and the rest of the system—chargers, fleets, and the grid—becomes cheaper to deploy, simpler to operate, and more equitable in its benefits.

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Urbanism and electrification are key to climate solutions that make life better, and they are friends

Building climate resilience and improving daily life hinge on two powerful, complementary levers: access‑oriented urbanism and clean electrification.

Each delivers lower costs, cleaner air, and greater resilience; together they do more—reducing energy demand, smoothing grid peaks, and keeping essential services running through heat, storms, and outages.

What follows introduces these two pillars, shows how they reinforce one another, and highlights practical, near‑term moves communities, agencies, and firms can take to advance climate action and well‑being at the same time.

Two pillars for climate and well‑being

Urbanism

Urban form sets the floor for energy use and travel. Compact, mixed‑use, transit‑oriented neighborhoods organized around access typically cut per‑capita transport emissions 20–50% and building energy 10–30% versus car‑centric sprawl—while lowering infrastructure and household costs.

Access‑first design puts homes, jobs, schools, groceries, parks, and clinics closer together. Shorter trips unlock walking, biking, and high‑ridership electric transit as the default. They also reduce the electricity needed for mobility even as vehicles electrify.
Safer, cooler streets are health and climate infrastructure: shaded, traffic‑calmed corridors protect walkers and cyclists; protected lanes and safe crossings cut injuries; elevated and flood‑safe segments safeguard transit and emergency access. Trees, cool/permeable surfaces, and greenways can reduce neighborhood heat by about 2–5°F and manage stormwater.

Freight microhubs, e‑cargo bike delivery, and smart curb management reduce double‑parking, congestion, noise, and local air pollution. These strategies improve access while easing energy and space demands.
Gentle density near transit supports affordability, social cohesion, and age‑ and disability‑friendly design. Predictable loads in compact areas make electrification—including district energy and neighborhood‑scale batteries—cheaper and faster.

Electrification

Electrification replaces direct fossil fuel use with power from a grid that is getting cleaner each year. Electricity generation is 25% of US greenhouse gas emissions. Electrification leverages the cleaner grid to cut transportation (28%) and buildings (13% direct; buildings also use 75% of US electricity).

Demand‑side management—efficiency, load flexibility, and smart pricing—shrinks and shifts load so electrification fits the grid. The IPCC estimates demand‑side strategies could cut end‑use emissions 40–70% by 2050. DSM is central to realizing that potential in the US.
In buildings, weatherization and high‑efficiency heat pumps, heat‑pump water heaters, induction cooking, and cool roofs lower bills, reduce heat stress, and cut local pollution. District thermal systems that use heat pumps and waste heat deliver scale benefits in compact areas.

In mobility, EVs, e‑buses, and e‑trucks paired with managed charging soak up midday solar and overnight wind. Vehicle‑to‑building/grid can power shelters, signals, and clinics during outages. Right‑sized, interoperable charging at depots, curbs, and homes makes low‑carbon travel reliable and affordable while reducing refinery and upstream emissions.

Rooftop solar, batteries, and community microgrids keep critical services running during storms, heat waves, and wildfires. Grid hardening and flexible loads improve reliability as extremes intensify.

Cutting waste before adding supply is among the most cost‑effective decarbonization steps because it avoids fuel and grid upgrades. Electrification and efficiency lower utility bills and improve indoor air, with outsized benefits for overburdened communities.

How urbanism and electrification multiply one another

Urbanism enabling electrification

Proximity, smaller homes, and shared walls reduce kWh per capita. Shorter trips cut the electricity required for mobility, lowering costs and grid upgrades.

Concentrated, predictable loads justify district thermal, thermal storage, and neighborhood batteries. Urban greening lowers peak cooling demand citywide.

Parking reform and right‑sized streets free land and budgets for housing, solar canopies, and microgrids. Shift/avoid strategies embedded in urban form reduce the need for new road capacity and lower vehicle manufacturing emissions even as fleets electrify.

Electrification enabling urbanism

All‑electric buildings and vehicles cut street‑level pollution and noise, improving public space and health.

Managed EV and e‑bus charging helps integrate renewables. V2G/V2B fleets and community microgrids keep mobility and essential services running through outages.

Curbside power and interoperable charging support e‑cargo bikes, micromobility, and car share. When paired with smart tariffs, these systems expand access without spiking peaks.

Rich opportunities at the urbanism–electrification seam

Transit‑oriented development plus district energy: Build mid‑rise, mixed‑use neighborhoods around frequent transit and connect buildings to low‑temperature district thermal loops served by heat pumps and waste heat. Result: fewer car trips, lower building loads, and steadier demand that improves grid economics and reliability.

Diversified, electrified mobility beyond car‑only: Create a choice‑rich network—frequent transit, protected bike/scooter lanes, safe crossings, EV car share, integrated fares—with right‑sized depot and curb charging. People can drive less without losing access, cutting energy and emissions and easing grid peaks via managed charging.

Micromobility and low‑speed electric networks: Build continuous, protected lanes and calm streets for e‑bikes, e‑scooters, and neighborhood electric vehicles, with secure, fire‑safe charging or battery‑swap. Hyper‑efficient short trips replace car journeys, trimming demand, emissions, and noise while expanding equitable access.

Comprehensive, high‑quality bike parking where it matters: Provide abundant, secure, 24/7 bike parking and charging at transit stations, schools, workplaces, commercial districts, and housing, with on‑street corrals near destinations. Reliable end‑of‑trip facilities multiply cycling uptake, unlock first/last‑mile access to transit, and relieve curb pressure.

Electrified bus depots with solar, storage, and managed charging: Equip depots with onsite generation, batteries, and smart charging or V2G to power zero‑emission buses and support local feeders. Cleaner, quieter service boosts ridership; flexible capacity integrates renewables and stabilizes the grid.

EV‑ready affordable housing near jobs and transit: Pair deep efficiency, all‑electric heat pumps, rooftop solar, pre‑wired Level 1/2 charging, and secure e‑mobility rooms. Residents get low utility and travel costs and clean air; predictable loads ease grid planning and strengthen resilience.

Complete streets with cool pavements and shade trees: Reallocate space to protected bike lanes, wider sidewalks, and transit priority, and retrofit surfaces with high‑albedo materials and canopy. Safer active travel and cooler microclimates reduce VMT, peak electricity demand, and heat risk.

Mobility hubs powered by microgrids: Co‑locate transit, bike share, e‑scooters, car share, parcel lockers, and charging under solar canopies tied to community microgrids. Riders get seamless low‑carbon trips through outages; cities cut last‑mile emissions and harden critical access.

Smart curb management and freight microhubs: Convert select parking to time‑managed loading zones, e‑cargo bike depots, and lockers with curbside power and digital permits. Faster, cleaner deliveries cut double‑parking, fuel use, and noise while improving safety and air quality.

Heat‑pump retrofits with weatherization and community cooling: Target multifamily buildings for envelope upgrades, efficient heat pumps, cool roofs, and shared resilience rooms with backup power. Lower bills and emissions pair with lifesaving protection during heat waves and outages.

Neighborhood resilience centers with solar and storage: Retrofit libraries, schools, and community centers to provide cooling, clean air, water, device charging, communications, and medical support during outages and heat or smoke events. Tie these hubs to microgrids and V2B/V2G fleets so they serve daily needs and deliver lifesaving services in emergencies.

In short, lead with urbanism and access‑oriented electrification. Together they deliver the bulk of the climate solution set while directly improving reliability, affordability, health, and resilience.

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15-minute neighborhoods: What they are, what they aren’t, and why they help

The 15-minute neighborhood is a simple idea with big upside: design places so most daily needs—groceries, schools, parks, clinics, pharmacies, childcare, and basic services—are reachable by a short walk, roll, bike ride, or quick transit trip from home. It doesn’t ban cars or limit movement; it adds convenient, local options so people can choose the mode that fits the trip, the weather, and their abilities.

Where the idea comes from

Deep roots: Early 20th-century “neighborhood unit” planning (Clarence Perry) and mid‑century main streets already aimed to put daily needs nearby. Jane Jacobs argued for fine-grained, mixed-use streets with “eyes on the street.”

Contemporary framing: Urbanist Carlos Moreno popularized the “15-minute city” in Paris, where the city invested in schools-as-community hubs, local services, and safe streets. Variations exist worldwide: Melbourne’s “20-minute neighborhoods,” Seoul’s “10-minute city,” and Sydney’s “30-minute city.”

Related movements: New Urbanism, transit-oriented development, and complete streets all reinforce the principle of proximity plus safe, reliable mobility choices.

Why it works

Time and convenience: Shorter trips mean less time stuck in traffic and more time for family, rest, or work.

Health and safety: Safer speeds, protected crossings, and continuous sidewalks/bikeways reduce injuries and make everyday activity easier.

Affordability: Fewer or shorter car trips lower household transportation costs. Mixed housing types near services let more people live where life is convenient.

Climate resilience: If a road floods or fuel is scarce, multiple local options keep essentials reachable. Shade, trees, and local amenities reduce heat exposure and long, risky trips during extreme weather.

Local economies: Foot traffic supports small businesses; main streets with steady, local customers tend to be more resilient during shocks.

Inclusion: Universal design—smooth sidewalks, curb ramps, shade, benches, audible signals, and frequent, accessible transit—expands independence for seniors and people with disabilities.

What a 15-minute neighborhood looks like in practice

Mixed-use zoning that allows corner stores, clinics, and childcare near homes.

Gentle infill housing (ADUs, duplexes, small apartments) near transit and jobs.

A connected, protected network for walking, rolling, and biking, plus frequent transit on key corridors.

Safe arterials: right-sized lanes, frequent crossings, median refuges, and protected bike lanes near schools, parks, and shops.

Shade trees, lighting, and weather protection at stops and along routes.

Curbs managed for loading, deliveries, and accessible parking, not just long-term storage.

Common myths—and the facts

Myth: 15-minute neighborhoods are ‘lockdowns’ in disguise.

Fact: The concept is about land use and service access, not restricting movement. There are no gates, passes, or tracking required. People can still drive across town or across the region; they simply don’t have to for every errand.

Myth: They’re a surveillance scheme.

Fact: You don’t need any surveillance to allow a bakery or clinic near housing, add shade and benches, or run buses more often. The tools are zoning changes, safer street design, and better transit—none require monitoring individuals.

Myth: They hurt seniors and people with disabilities.

Fact: Proximity plus universal design makes life easier: shorter distances to essentials; smoother, wider sidewalks; shorter crossings; reliable paratransit and level boarding; more benches and shade. Protected bikeways also reduce sidewalk cycling, making sidewalks calmer for mobility devices.

Myth: Emergency response gets worse.

Fact: Calmer, well-designed arterials with center turn lanes, protected facilities, and signal preemption maintain or improve response times while reducing severe crashes—the incidents that most often delay responders.

Myth: Businesses and deliveries can’t function.

Fact: Cities pair local access with dynamic curb space, timed loading zones, and alley access. Many retail streets see equal or higher sales when streets are made safer and more inviting for nearby customers.

Myth: It only works in dense European cities.

Fact: The principle scales. Suburbs can cluster daily needs around existing centers, add neighborhood connectors, and allow modest infill near schools and transit. Melbourne’s 20-minute model and many North American main-street revivals show how to retrofit gradually.

Where conspiracy thinking comes from—and why it doesn’t fit here

Conflation with traffic filters: Some cities pilot “low-traffic neighborhoods” that discourage cut‑through driving on residential streets using planters or cameras. Online, these have been mislabeled as “movement bans.” In reality, people can still enter and exit, emergency vehicles and deliveries are accommodated, and the broader idea of a 15-minute neighborhood doesn’t require traffic filters at all.

Pandemic trauma and mistrust: After COVID restrictions, proposals to change streets can trigger fears of lost freedom. But 15-minute planning is the opposite: it increases choices and reduces dependence on any single mode or road.

Algorithmic amplification: Sensational claims spread faster than zoning maps. Transparency, co-design, clear goals, and time-limited pilots with public evaluation help rebuild trust.

Legitimate concerns—and why they’re often overstated (and solvable)

Displacement and rising rents: Convenience is valuable. If we add amenities without adding homes, prices can rise. The fix is to pair investments with more housing (including affordable and social housing), right-to-return policies, tenant protections, community land trusts, and targeted homeownership support so existing residents benefit.

Equity in siting: Improvements sometimes arrive first in affluent areas. Cities should prioritize underserved neighborhoods for sidewalks, crossings, shade, clinics, and transit—co-designed with residents.

Suburban feasibility: Not every place will hit “15 minutes” for everything. Start with a few anchors—grocery, primary care, a park, childcare—within 15–20 minutes for most homes, then fill gaps. Frequent transit links stitch multiple “15-minute” pockets into a connected city.

Weather and climate: Heat, rain, snow, and smoke are real constraints.

Design for them: continuous shade, cooling shelters, winter maintenance of sidewalks and bikeways, sheltered stops with real-time info and backup power, and redundant networks so people can choose the safest route.

Parking and car access: The goal isn’t to ban cars; it’s to right-size parking and keep access for those who need it. Unbundled parking, shared lots, and well-managed curbs preserve availability without inflating housing costs or paving over main streets.

Business logistics and trades: Set aside curb space for loading and service vehicles, offer delivery windows, and maintain through-access on commercial streets while calming speeds and adding crossings.

How cities get there—step by step

Update zoning to allow mixed-use and gentle infill near transit, schools, and main streets.

Build a connected network of protected bike lanes, neighborhood greenways, and continuous sidewalks, with frequent, safe crossings on arterials.

Run frequent transit on a core network and prioritize it with bus lanes, signal priority, shelters, and accurate real-time information.

Cool and drain the public realm with street trees, shade structures, permeable paving, bioswales, and floodable parks.

Manage the curb for access: loading zones, short-stay parking, accessible spaces, and pickup/drop-off areas tied to demand.

Invest first where need is greatest, and pair every capital project with anti-displacement tools and accessibility upgrades.

Use quick-build pilots to test changes, measure results, and adjust with the community before making them permanent.

Bottom line

A 15-minute neighborhood is about proximity, safety, and choice. It helps people reclaim time, lowers everyday costs, supports local businesses, and keeps essentials within reach when systems are stressed. It isn’t a plot to restrict movement or track anyone; it’s a practical blueprint for neighborhoods that work better for kids, seniors, people with disabilities, and everyone in between—on ordinary days and during disruptions alike.

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Design guide

Bicycle parking design guide

To use a bicycle for transportation, the user needs a convenient, safe place to park and store it. 

More broadly, allowing bicycling to flourish, which some cities have done and made it the primary way people get around, requires parking that gives users with a lot of different needs a consistently good experience.

The stakes are higher with e-bikes. They expand access and make car-light living more feasible. But they can be more cumbersome to park and their higher value makes them more attractive to thieves.

Design Concepts

Good bicycle parking means facilities that are high quality, sufficient in capacity, and ubiquitous.

1. High Quality

Parking needs to be convenient, secure, and reliable for short stays (less than a few hours) as well as long stays (more than a few hours, often at work or home), with appropriately higher security for long-term use.

A. Short-stay or “short term” bicycle parking 

For short stays, provide racks that are easy to use, durable, and available where people need them.

Frame-mountable: Use racks that support the bicycle frame at two points and allow a U-lock through the frame and one wheel. The standard is the ”inverted-U” rack or similar design; one rack typically serves two bikes. Avoid wave, coat-hanger, grid, and wheel-bender racks, which do not properly support frame locking.

Navigable: Space racks 3.5+ feet apart when side-by-side or 10+ feet between centerpoints when in a series. Set back 4+ feet from a wall or curb when racks are perpendicular; 3+ feet when parallel (5+ feet from the curb if adjacent to head-in car parking). Maintain 6+ feet of unobstructed sidewalk width after bikes are parked. 

Solid and well-maintained: Anchor racks securely so they cannot be easily removed or cut; maintain them in good repair. Keep rack areas and access routes clear of storage, debris, and snow year-round.

Easy access: Locate racks on the same site as the use they serve, within 50 feet and as close as practicable to primary entrances. Ensure good lighting and passive surveillance. Avoid conflicts with walkways, door swings, loading areas, and utilities, and maintain ADA-compliant, obstruction-free access.

Reserved and protected: Reserve rack space for bicycles only. Protect their space from vehicle conflicts and door swings by using physical barriers or painted striping. 

Shelter adds value in wet or cold climates, whether inside a structure or via a standalone canopy.

B. Long-stay or “long-term” bicycle parking

For extended parking—at work, home, or transit connections—users need the basics of short-stay facilities plus enhanced security and convenience.

Locked enclosure: Provide weather-protected, enclosed spaces with controlled access (e.g., a room within a building or a standalone intrusion-resistant shed, cage, or lockers).

Easy access: Locate near entrances where users can roll a bike the entire way, as many bikes, especially e-bikes, are too heavy to carry. Use signage or wayfinding for locations that are not obvious.

E-bike supportive: Allow e-bikes and provide electrical outlets to support e-bike charging.

Helpful additions include cameras or other monitoring, lockers, shower facilities, and shared tools.

Space-efficient systems such as vertical or two-tier racks can increase capacity, but they can be difficult to use and may not accommodate larger bikes. Use them only for a limited share of total spaces if at all.

2. Sufficient Capacity

There should be enough spaces so users can count on finding a spot. A rule of thumb is at least 4 spaces (satisfied by 2 “inverted Us”) per site and at least 1 space per every 2,500 sq ft, with at least 25% long-term. 

3. Ubiquitous

Riders should expect to find usable, consistent facilities everywhere—similar to how drivers expect to find workable parking. Facilities That should have it:

Destinations: Places of work, study, shopping, recreation, and other daily activities.

Transfer points: Bus stops, points of interest in parks and urban areas, and other locations where a user would “leave” their bicycle to proceed onwards.

Housing: Where the owner sleeps, which, if a multifamily dwelling or other location other than a traditional single family home, they might not have the space or rights to. 

References

Examples of “Inverted U” racks (City of Boulder): Standard (view A), Standard (view B), Racks on Rails 

Further reading: Perspectives on bicycle parking

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Micromobility is a revolution in our ability to move

Battery-electric motors bring not only the power to cut carbon and mitigate spikes in fuel costs but also the literal horsepower to create a range of new classes of ultra-efficient small vehicles that can return large sums of money to people, unlock travel for people who are younger, older, and have special needs, and make towns quieter, calmer, and more joyful to be in.

High-quality affordable e-bikes, other micromobility devices, and ultra-efficient electric cars and vans with safe and comfortable conditions to use them could be outs to have–if we plan for them.

The opportunity for changemakers is to use the superior power of battery-electric motors to give people ultra-efficient, rightsized motor vehicles of all different kinds.

Resources

Perspectives on micromobility

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Lyft said private cars would be out by 2025–here’s what to ask next time

In 2016, Lyft cofounder and president John Zimmer wrote that by 2025 private car ownership would all but end in major U.S. cities. Fast forward: We’re not just off track but moving the opposite way.

Although the prediction should have been treated as unbelievable at the time, it was widely reported as credible, often with little scrutiny or independent analysis. Many readers and editors seemed eager for it to be true, perhaps because it fit a familiar story in which software rapidly overturns old systems.

Technological salvation is alluring, but enthusiasm can obscure how transportation really works. Smartphones and online retail moved fast because they could. Mobility is different. It is defined by land use, the allocation of rights, privileges, and funding, and infrastructure that lasts decades while continuously locking in supporting investments along the way.

Cars dominate because policy made it so. Highways, subsidies, zoning, finance, and design standards formed a meticulously-crafted ecosystem for automobiles. Homes have been separated from daily destinations, with gaps filled by roads that are wide and fast.

Transit, cycling, and walking are less common than driving. But it isn’t because they are inherently weaker or less popular. It’s because our current system treats the car as necessary and central for almost every trip, and constrains and prioritizes from there.

Automated vehicles have advanced, but slowly and within limits. Companies like Waymo show that meaningful progress takes time and careful deployment. We are prone to sweeping claims when they sparkle with tech optimism.

Looking ahead, we should not expect transformation to come from a single breakthrough. Rather, it will come from changing policy, reimagining urban design, and putting people at the center of mobility. That means funding choices, street space allocation, and land use decisions aligned with what we say we value.

The next time you hear about a miracle transportation breakthrough, here are some questions to ask:

1. What independent evidence supports this claim, and how could it be tested or falsified?

2. Which policies, budgets, and standards would need to change for it to work, and who has the authority to change them?

3. How must street design and land use shift to make the promised outcomes practical and safe?

4. What is the impact on people with below-average incomes and folks who can’t readily drive, including youth and the growing number of aging seniors?

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To use energy resources wisely, first “avoid,” then “shift,” and next, “improve” (ASI)

The avoid–shift–improve (ASI) framework is a conceptual tool to help policymakers and managers deliver maximum services for the fewest energy requirements and environmental harm.

ASI prescribes managing demand first and multiplies the possibilities for electrification.

ASI directs the following:

  • Avoid unnecessary demand for a service in the first place.
  • Shift remaining demand to inherently lower-impact modes, energy carriers, places, or times.
  • Improve the efficiency and cleanliness of technologies and infrastructure that still serve that demand.

ASI was coined for transportation, but it generalizes for energy-using activities more widely.

Transportation: avoid trips and vehicle-kilometers; shift to walking, cycling, transit, rail, coastal shipping; improve vehicles, fuels, operations.

Buildings and cities: avoid loads via passive design/right-sizing; shift to district energy and electrified end-uses and to cleaner times with demand response; improve envelopes, controls, appliances.

Industry and materials: avoid through material efficiency, reuse, and product longevity; shift to recycled feedstocks and electrified or hydrogen-based processes; improve motors, drives, heat integration, high-temp heat pumps.

Power systems: avoid peaks and losses; shift the generation mix to low-carbon sources and demand to low-carbon hours; improve plant and grid efficiency (advanced inverters, reconductoring, storage).

Digital/ICT: avoid unnecessary compute/data movement; shift workloads to low-carbon regions/times; improve chips, cooling, and utilization.

Issues it addresses include climate mitigation, air quality and health, congestion and reliability, resource and land use, energy security, affordability, and resilience.

Who should care

National and local policymakers, planners, and regulators (NDCs, CAPs, land-use/transport codes, building energy codes).
Utilities, ISOs/RTOs, and energy planners (resource adequacy, demand response, electrification).

Corporate leaders across fleet, real estate, operations, procurement, and product design.
Investors and lenders (capex timing, stranded-asset risk, transition plans).

NGOs, researchers, and community groups shaping equitable, demand-side solutions.
Anyone setting climate, cost, or reliability targets who must deliver results this decade.

Where it comes from

Origins: Early 2000s within the sustainable transport community, especially German development cooperation. The approach was codified and popularized through GTZ’s (now GIZ) Sustainable Urban Transport Project (SUTP) and partners.

A widely cited early synthesis is Dalkmann and Brannigan’s GTZ SUTP Module “Transport and Climate Change” (2007). Regional development banks (notably ADB) and networks like SLOCAT then embedded ASI in guidance and programs.

Beyond transport: ASI migrated into buildings, industry, and power as demand-side mitigation rose in prominence (e.g., IPCC AR6).

From modes to moments: “Shift” now includes shifting in time (load flexibility, demand response) as much as shifting modes or carriers.
From three pillars to four: Many practitioners add “Enable” to emphasize institutions, finance, pricing, design standards, and data that make ASI stick.

Integration with circular economy and sufficiency: “Avoid” increasingly overlaps with product longevity, reuse/repair, and service sufficiency.

Equity and co-benefits: Modern ASI practice foregrounds distributional impacts, access, and health, not just carbon metrics.

More rigorous metrics: Better methods to quantify rebound effects, lifecycle emissions, and system interactions help prioritize high-impact measures.

Why it matters—and what goes wrong if you ignore it

Faster, cheaper decarbonization: Avoid and shift measures often deliver near-term, low-cost cuts and reduce the scale of supply-side buildout needed.

Lock-in avoidance: Managing demand and mode/carrier choices now prevents expensive, high-carbon infrastructure lock-in and stranded assets later.

System reliability and resilience: Avoiding peaks and shifting to flexible demand can stabilize grids and networks under stress.

Multiple co-benefits: Clean air, safety, space efficiency, and affordability strengthen public support and create immediate value.

If you ignore ASI, you risk over-relying on “improve” (efficiency/clean tech) alone, which is slower to saturate and vulnerable to rebound effects.

You are likely to overbuild supply and networks, raising costs and exposure to delays, siting constraints, and public opposition.

You miss no-regrets options and equity gains that can make transitions durable.

You may still miss climate targets even with rapid tech deployment, because unmanaged demand and mode choices swamp improvements.

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Primer on access

In transportation and land use planning, access or accessibility is the ability for people to reach goods, services, and activities.

Another way to define access is people’s ability to meet opportunities, where opportunities are groceries, employment, education, healthcare, and other things they need and value.

A key component of access is mobility, the ability to move through physical space. Mobility is a means to access, but generally not a useful end itself. 

The words “access” and “accessibility” have other uses that are related but different. For example, in the context of people with disabilities, accessibility can refer to equity in mobility. 

Accessibility is also an important part of equity on general. Access in equity can refer to ensuring communities who have suffered and continue to suffer from historical injustices and exclusions now have what they need for well-being, including physical safety, nutrition, health, education, finance, and economic opportunities.

Access is fundamental to climate-resilient development and GHG mitigation.

Measurement

One of the contributions of the concept of access is that it provides a way to quantify the extent to which people can get what they need, and by extension, community health, well-being, and other public outcomes policymakers wish to pursue.

One way to provide access is reachability, or the capacity to physically reach opportunities. Reachability is comprised of the following:

#1. PROXIMITY: Physical distance between origins and destinations. The mix and breath of locations of key opportunities relative to people who need them. Proximity can be measured as the average time to reach one or a basket of key locations by a targeted or wider number of the population.

#2. MOBILITY: Ease or comfort of physical movement along a network. Metrics for mobility are well-established and include average travel speed and auto travel time abstracted from the impact of decisions on other travel modes. Here is a short talk by Jonathan Levine on conventional mobility measures and why they work when properly applied, but also lead us in wrong direction if we try to maximize for them without an organizing goal of accessibility.

#3 FREEDOM FROM BARRIERS: Removal of  impediments to using transport options. This includes affordability, safety, comfort, and other qualities that arise in different settings and with people’s needs. 

Another solution to access is connectivity, which means things coming to you. Connectivity could be for physical goods like water and delivery packages. It could also be digital resources like computing and communications which can (but doesn’t necessarily) provide cost-effective substitutes for physical travel. Connectivity could also be for fire and other emergency services.

In sum, access gives a way to measure meaningful outcomes and internal dynamics in a way that generally is currently lacking in transportation, land use, and related planning.

Practical Use

The idea of access as an integrated transportation and land use strategy brings some advantages. However it is not yet widely used by local governments, a fact that is explained partly by decades of auto-centric decisions in multiple levels of government that has created inertia.

Yet, access as a concept is available for local governments to use—and indeed, offers a way to leadership and innovation that could be valuable.

Some things the concept of access could do for a local government:

  • Create a unified way to measure, manage, and optimize resources across multiple modes and investments towards human-centered outcomes
  • Bring together various existing policy issues (e.g. commute times to work, availability of low-stress bikeways, wheelchair access, etc) into a single rubric.
  • Establish a focal point to integrate planning activities that are currently diffused and disparate (e.g., parking policy and TDM proposals), creating the potential for a more powerful and deliberate way to coordinate investments 
  • Provide a new way to evaluate equity with a higher degree of discernment and control in managing initiatives aimed to increase well-being in targeted populations.

In conclusion, access provides a way to understand and integrate the management of transportation and lanes use across modes and in urban, suburban, and rural environments.

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The fast road to a prosperous, climate-compatible future is better transportation choices 

The set of choices available for transportation—or more generally, “access to destinations” (or more generally still, “access to opportunities”)—is one of the most important determinants of our quality of life. It powerfully shapes our cost of living, the extent to which large numbers of people are able to satisfy their basic needs and reasonable standards of living, and the power of our local community,

Transportation choice is also a crucial determinant of climate outcomes. Transportation is one of the top main sources of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) as well as one of the sources that has the most concerning trends. Furthermore it’s central to adapting to being resilient in the face of climate change.

And the state of transportation choices enables and is enabled by other economic systems that govern well-being and climate action like housing, energy, food, air quality, and the ability to secure valuable goods and services.

Some of the keys to creating good transportation choices:

1. Design for people

Think about and organize for transportation so that the programs and people involved with its planning, engineering, and operations are foremost responsible to solve human problems.

  • Focus metrics on satisfying human needs, in particular, enabling people to reach destinations and opportunities in an economically-efficient way safely.
  • Ensure people of all ages, abilities, and financial situations are able to effectively access destinations–and course-correct where that is currently not happening.
  • Establish a great “fabric” for active transportation (walking, biking, and rolling in other ways) to provide good options for people to come together and communities to be cohesive, while elevating the need to make urban areas places that work well for people to be outside of cars.
  • Highly value the experience of people in neighborhoods and communities that the transportation systems flow through, minimizing preventable stress, danger, noise, and other problems vehicle traffic can impose.
2. Multiple mobility solutions

Create an ecosystem that works for a diversity of travel modes and travel alternatives.

  • Make communities conveniently and comfortably walkable, bikeable, and connected with excellent transit, both within themselves and to/from other places.
  • Create the flexibility to satisfy people with different needs, including the people whose needs change expectedly and unexpectedly throughout the year, month, work, day, and life events.
  • Coordinate systems so users can effectively link different modes on the same trips.
  • Support alternatives to mobility like remote meetings/work and efficient deliveries.
3. Systemwide efficiency

Allocate investments, rights, privelages, and space to transportation systems that achieve the greatest outcomes for the resources used.

  • Design communities to be space-efficient by reducing the distances between endpoints, especially housing and destinations, so people can live near where they need to go, comfortably travel by walking and biking, and access good social connections and desirable chance encounters.
  • Build systems to enable high-efficiency electric vehicles like neighborhood electric vehicles and e-scooters.
  • Dedicate systems and accountability to continuous improvement, with transparent reporting and planned responses to problem data (including people killed and seriously injureed in/around transportation systems) and the gap between key current states and targets.
  • Meaningfully invest in structured continuous improvement, innovation, and technology advancement.
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E-bikes give bicycles superpowers

Electric bicycles (e-bikes) multiply humans’ ability to pedal and balance. If you’ve used one, you have experienced bionic power. In case you’ve haven’t, read on for an explainer.

In short, a powerful small electric motor delivers three basic enhancements. Then, at the hands (and feet) of a person, those enhancements make the bicycle—already one of the most efficient machines in the universe— easier to manage and more powerful.

Three Enhancements 

The e-bike adds battery-electric power assistance to the drivetrain of a conventional bicycle. This delivers three kinds of enhancements to a bicycle:

First, it increases the rider’s power output. A typical human pedaling with legs typically delivers 20-200 of watts to a bicycle. The low end is working gently on flat ground and the high side is pushing uphill.

A battery-electric system stacks 250-1000 watts on top of that, depending on the model and power selection. Electric assistance means more power going to the bike for a given amount of effort from the human.

Second, it delivers explosive starting power. In addition to general power assistance, electric motors can immediately put a bicycle into motion in nearly any condition (e.g., under load or on a hill) with little or no effort to the pedaler.

This capability is inherent to electric motors and popularly called “instant torque” with electric cars. On a bicycle, it provides explosive launching power that can completely absorb the difficulty and fatigue involved with starts, which can be the most physically-demanding aspect of using a bicycle for transportation.

Third, it creates the option of throttle-only power. Some e-bikes, specifically, Class 2 e-bikes, carry a handlegrip throttle that delivers exclusive power assistance–in other words, power from the motor alone without pedaling.

This feature is similar to the throttle on a motorcycle, but with a low top speed. For most e-bikes with throttle-only power, assistance will cease when the bike reaches 20 MPH. 

Superhuman Abilities

So now that we have a performance-enhanced bicycle, how does the extra oomph translate to the work of actually riding?

The answer is that in nearly every aspect requiring physical effort, the bike now gives its rider superpowers. 

The new abilities include:

Distance: On an e-bike, a rider can cover 2-3 times the distance using the same amount of physical effort. Mileage may vary depending on the terrain, rider, and other factors. But in general, whatever distance or radius the operator of a conventional bike considers a comfortable travel range, it is now significantly larger.

Hills: A rider can choose to erase the challenge of most hills, from making the climb of a slope previously thought unmanageable into something comfortable to eliminating the effort needed for one or more hills on a route altogether. While the rider is subject to the constraints of the maximum output of a particular motor and the level of battery charge, in practice they are unlimited by grades designed for motor vehicles and 80% of the trips drivers take in cars.

Load: A rider can carry a surprisingly large amount of cargo weight on board (e.g., a standard longtail cargo bike might support 400 lbs), towed in a trailer (additional 100 pounds or so), or both with essentially zero extra physical exertion. Such cargo can be nearly anything, from a keg of beer to a Christmas tree to multiple children or even adult passengers. By the same principle, the rider can eliminate the force of headwind.

Ease: Just as power assistance can allow a rider to “do more” with the bicycle, it can also let them do less. Meaning, a bicycle operator can cover the same distance or terrain they did previously on a pedal-only bike, but with less strain. Or more to the point, without sweating. For some riders, this can make riding a bicycle for transportation finally feel compatible with dressing up for work or commuting in hot summer months.

Swiftness: One of the subtly extraordinary benefits of “Instant torque” is the ability to comfortably maneuver environments that require athletic starts, such as a series of uphill stoplights, with almost no physical exertion. In areas with heavy vehicle traffic and frequent intersections, this power can make the bicycle, already almost impervious to congestion, significantly faster and more enjoyable than traveling by car.

Speed: Electric assistance can bring the top speed of a bike to double or more what an average person can comfortably travel pedaling on their own (i.e., 20 vs 10 MPH). This can translate to the ability–and confidence–to traverse high-stress corridors like narrow bridges where the rider has to mix with cars, or unprotected bike lanes on fast-moving roads, in which the rider feels it necessary to get in and out as quickly as possible.

Balance: With electric bicycles that have throttle assistance, (in other words, Class 2 e-bikes), a rider has new capabilities to safely navigate hazardous conditions such as icy spots by being able to take their feet off the pedals and hold them out for balance while continuing to propel the bike forward.

Together, these abilities transform the conventional pedal-only bicycle into something categorically easier to manage and more powerful. 

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Research summary: IPCC’s sixth synthesis report says climate action requires transforming transportation

On March 20, 2023, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided a major update on the state of climate science and ways forward in its synthesis of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6).

Here’s what the world’s top authority on climate says about climate action and transportation:

#1. Climate change is an unfolding catastrophe.1 It multiplies the most problematic existing societal challenges and it exacerbates inequalities. Pretty much no one is left unscathed.

#2. We can head off continued warming and prepare for the unavoidable by making major coordinated commitments–which is manageable.2

#3. In fact, climate action is an opportunity to create abundance.3 The solutions called for are largely centered in creating more inclusive, affordable, healthy, and joyous communities that make people better off. Sustainable and equitable development worth doing even without the benefits of decarbonization. 

#4. Rising to the challenge means rapid, broad, and deep decarbonization of our energy supply plus five principal “demand-side” areas: Food, buildings, industry, electrification, and land transportation.4 Emissions in all areas need to rapidly peak, decline, and move to nearly zero by 2050-2070.

#5. Decarbonizing transportation requires several transformations:

  • Energy-Efficient Mobility Systems:5 Improving per-passenger energy productivity through development of systems to prioritize the widespread use of transit and other shared vehicles, vehicles right-sized for their purpose, and active transportation (e.g. bicycling and walking), meanwhile decreasing the distance between where people and things need to travel. Methods include safe streets for people outside of vehicles, more advanced public and community-based shared transportation, redesign of transportation for accessibility rather than car flow, inclusive housing, and inclusive use of public spaces. 
  • Resource-Efficient Electrification:6 Electrifying nearly every vehicle with wheels and a motor, while stewarding resources to create the most decarbonization for the materials employed. Methods include switching internal combustion engines with electric powertrains of existing vehicles in every class (e.g. cars, buses, and trucks), using the superior technology of battery-electric systems to advance new classes of highly-efficient small vehicles in urban areas (e.g. scooters and neighborhood electric vehicles), and creating new capabilities for active transportation (e.g. e-bikes). 
  • Compact Land Use: Dense infill mixed-use middle housing that lets people live near where they need to go). This strategy reduces fuel use, enables shifts to s’more energy-efficient modes, and enables day-to-day living is overall more resource-efficient and has a lighter climate impact.
  • Rigorous Demand Management:7 Creating economic incentives to reward climate-compatible travel and contain the impact of vehicles and behaviors that are in conflict with decarbonization. Methods include programs of incentives for users making everyday travel choices and capital purchases (e.g. expanded use of transportation demand management or “TDM” initiatives), structural reforms (e.g. reorganizing subsidies to move beyond car-centric planning to interoperable multimodal systems, as well as ensuring public agencies have sufficient capacity and resources to conduct such work), and new creativity in public engagement (e.g., entrepreneurship to enhance user experiences, communication, and education).

#6. Everyone has a job to do.8 Climate action around transportation requires comprehensive support for activities as varied as public policy design, advocacy, organizing, technology deployment, education, applied research, and more. Those who have influence over urban areas and financial investments taking place are especially important. Leadership is contagious.

#7. Everything we can still do matters.9 Each increment of warming avoided can make an enormous difference.


1  From the IPCC’s published Headline Statements (Headlines), Summary for Policymakers (SPM), and Longer Report (LR). As of March 22, the full volume has not yet been published. Additional detail is available in the three reports the synthesis is based on, especially the 2022 report on Mitigation.

2  Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. (Headlines C.1). Climate change has reduced food security and affected water security, hindering efforts to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SPM A.2.4). Continued emissions will further affect all major climate system components, and many changes will be irreversible on centennial to millennial time scales and become larger with increasing global warming. Without urgent, effective, and equitable mitigation and adaptation actions, climate change increasingly threatens ecosystems, biodiversity, and the livelihoods, health and wellbeing of current and future generations. (C.1.3)

3 There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. (Headlines C.1) All global modelled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. (SPM B.6). Low-cost decarbonization opportunities abound. (SPM Figure SPM.7.a)

4  Negative decarbonization opportunities abound. (SPM Figure SPM.7.a). Deep, rapid and sustained mitigation and accelerated implementation of adaptation actions in this decade would reduce projected losses and damages for humans and ecosystems (very high confidence), and deliver many co-benefits, especially for air quality and health (C.2) Mitigation options often have synergies with other aspects of sustainable development, but some options can also have trade-offs. There are potential synergies between sustainable development and, for instance, energy efficiency and renewable energy. Similarly, depending on the context, biological CDR methods like reforestation, improved forest management, soil carbon sequestration, peatland restoration and coastal blue carbon management can enhance biodiversity and ecosystem functions, employment and local livelihoods. However, afforestation or production of biomass crops can have adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts, including on biodiversity, food and water security, local livelihoods and the rights of Indigenous Peoples, especially if implemented at large scales and where land tenure is insecure. Modeled pathways that assume using resources more efficiently or that shift global development towards sustainability include fewer challenges, such as less dependence on CDR and pressure on land and biodiversity (B.6.4)

5  Rapid and far-reaching transitions across all sectors and systems are necessary to achieve deep and sustained emissions reductions and secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. (Headlines C.3) All global modeled pathways that limit warming to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot, and those that limit warming to 2°C (>67%), involve rapid and deep and, in most cases, immediate greenhouse gas emissions reductions in all sectors this decade. Global net zero CO2 emissions are reached for these pathway categories, in the early 2050s and around the early 2070s, respectively. (Headlines B.6)

6 SPM Figure SPM.7.a

7 Urban systems are critical for achieving deep emissions reductions and advancing climate resilient development. Key adaptation and mitigation elements in cities include considering climate change impacts and risks (e.g. through climate services) in the design and planning of settlements and infrastructure; land use planning to achieve compact urban form, co-location of jobs and housing; supporting public transport and active mobility. (SPM C.3.4) Public transportation with bikes and rightsizing motor vehicles are among top 20 key modeled areas of mitigation, and the 5th (nearly tied with 4th) and 3rd-highest sources of mitigation that are cost-negative. (SPM Figure SPM.7.b) Urban systems are critical for achieving deep emissions reductions and advancing climate resilient development, particularly when this involves integrated planning that incorporates physical, natural and social infrastructure (high confidence). Deep emissions reductions and integrated adaptation actions are advanced by: integrated, inclusive land use planning and decision-making; compact urban form by co-locating jobs and housing; reducing or changing urban energy and material consumption; electrification in combination with low emissions sources; improved water and waste management infrastructure; and enhancing carbon uptake and storage in the urban environment (LR 4.5.3)

8 Electric vehicles powered by low-GHG emissions electricity have large potential to reduce land-based transport…The environmental footprint of battery production and growing concerns about critical minerals can be addressed by material and supply diversification strategies, energy and material efficiency improvements, and circular material flows. (SPM C.3.3)

9 Reducing industry GHG emissions entails coordinated action throughout value chains to promote all mitigation options, including demand management, energy and materials efficiency, circular material flows, as well as abatement technologies and transformational changes in production processes. (SPM C.3.3) The systemic change required to achieve rapid and deep emissions reductions and transformative adaptation to climate change is unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms of speed. Systems transitions include: deployment of low- or zero-emission technologies; reducing and changing demand through infrastructure design and access, socio-cultural and behavioral changes, and increased technological efficiency and adoption; social protection, climate services or other services; and protecting and restoring ecosystems. Feasible, effective, and low-cost options for mitigation and adaptation are already available. (SPM C.3.1) Electrification load brings significant new impacts that need to be reduced (SPM Figure SPM.7.b) Transport-related GHG emissions can be reduced by demand-side options and low-GHG emissions technologies. Changes in urban form, reallocation of street space for cycling and walking, digitalisation (e.g., teleworking) and programs that encourage changes in consumer behavior (e.g. transport, pricing) can reduce demand for transport services and support the shift to more energy efficient transport modes. (LR 4.5.3) Approaches that align goals and actions across sectors provide opportunities for multiple and large-scale benefits and avoided damages in the near-term. Such measures can also achieve greater benefits through cascading effects across sectors (medium confidence). For example, the feasibility of using land for both agriculture and centralized solar production can increase when such options are combined (high confidence). Similarly, integrated transport and energy infrastructure planning and operations can together reduce the environmental, social, and economic impacts of decarbonizing the transport and energy sectors (high confidence). (4.9) 

10 Urban systems are critical for achieving deep emissions reductions and advancing climate resilient development.  SPM (C.3.4) Finance, technology and international cooperation are critical enablers for accelerated climate action. (SPM C.7) 

11  There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions. (Headlines A.4). Every increment of global warming will intensify multiple and concurrent hazards. (Headlines B.1)

12  Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all. Climate resilient development integrates adaptation and mitigation to advance sustainable development for all, and is enabled by increased international cooperation including improved access to adequate financial resources, particularly for vulnerable regions, sectors and groups, and inclusive governance and coordinated policies. The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (SMP C.1). Delayed mitigation and adaptation action would lock-in high-emissions infrastructure, raise risks of stranded assets and cost-escalation, reduce feasibility, and increase losses and damages (high confidence). Near-term actions involve high up-front investments and potentially disruptive changes that can be lessened by a range of enabling policies. (C.2)

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Science

Transportation questions for climate advocates

To bring climate pollution under control, we need to reshape transportation, especially the way we get around on the ground.

Namely, we have to evolve from a mono-modal system that is extraordinarily energy-intensive because it requires one tool for almost every job–the private car, typically carrying one person–towards a system that is resource-efficient.

No question a big part of resource efficiency is more efficient motors with cleaner energy sources. That means electrifying more or less every motor vehicle.

But just as important, and what we needs more attention, is making the system architecture into one that is multimodal. An architecture that provides a diversity of travel choices giving people multiple good options. That ferrets out subsidies working against the most economic travel tool for the job in order to give the most climate-compatible modes a level playing field. That multiplies the possibilities through “geometric efficiency”–by designing and redesigning communities to give people more amenities near where they live.

This system we need is one that is designed to first avoid the need for physical travel and next let people frictionlessly shift to the most efficient and convenient mode for the trip. See figure for a summary of these strategies, together “avoid/shift,” in context.

Avoid-Shift-Improve Framework from SLOCAT (reference at bottom)

Four questions will shape how and when we get to the multimodal, resource-efficient system that we need–and whether transportation leaders will do their part in delivering a safe climate:

  1. How do we give bicycle/pedestrian and transit development the high status climate science and literature on equity say they deserve?
  2. How can transportation electrification and “avoid/shift” climate strategies work harmoniously towards a holistic transportation decarbonization agenda?
  3. What’s it going to take to get public agencies to take serious climate action, which requires–according to the most authoritative science–a revolution in mobility options on top of electrification?
  4. How can resource-limited local governments rapidly take it the next level for combined transportation decarbonization, equity, and resilience?
  5. How do we overcome carbon lock-in that makes the transportation difficult and spark new action?

There’s a lot packed in here. How we pay for things (and quietly subsidize the status quo). The role of emerging technology. Paths to diffusion of technology and solutions that already exist but at small scale. How to be more appropriately imaginative. And more.

Watch this space for materials and perspectives to explore these issues. A goal is to better understand the untapped value mobility offers the climate movement and what we can do about it. As well as the potentially untapped popular support for initiatives that give people time, money, and freedom back once we get the flywheel really moving.

READING

IPCC (April 2022). Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel.

Litman, Todd (2022). Evaluating Transportation Equity Guidance for Incorporating Distributional Impacts in Transport Planning. Victoria Transport Policy Institute.

SLOCAT: Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport (2021). Transport and Climate Change Global Status Report — 2nd Edition.

Unruh, Greg (2002). Escaping Carbon Lock-in. Energy Policy.

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High-reward climate action: Safe streets

When people think of climate solutions, the mind often goes to things that need be installed: Solar and wind, battery storage, building retrofits, tree planting, and carbon removal. All are essential.

Yet a powerful, fast-payback lever hides in plain sight: designing streets for safety. Safer streets cut emissions directly and acts as a force multiplier for transportation decarbonization—one of the largest sources of climate pollution in many countries and an area where progress must accelerate.

Safe streets unlock “avoid and shift,” the fastest path to lower transportation emissions. The biggest gains come first from avoiding car trips through better land use, then from shifting remaining trips to walking, cycling, and transit.

Avoiding and shifting multiply what is possible with vehicle improvements by reducing the number and length of car trips before technology even enters the picture.

Safety is the skeleton key that lets avoid and shift scale in transportation—and it delivers unusually strong returns on investment. Compared with large capital projects, quick-build safety upgrades, protected bike networks, safer crossings, and bus priority can be delivered rapidly, save lives immediately, reduce vehicle miles traveled, and unlock further climate benefits. This is not marginal action; it is a force multiplier that climate advocates should prioritize.

Bicycling and walking

Research shows that most people’s relationship with a bicycle for transportation is that they are “interested” but concerned that the risks and stress are too much. They’re open to bicyling and walking if it feels safe and convenient, but not if it feels exposed or confusing.

Perceived safety governs behavior. That means physical protection from fast traffic, lower speeds where people move, frequent and visible crossings, lighting, and predictable intersections. Where cities reduce vehicle speeds and add protected bike lanes and continuous sidewalks, injuries fall and the share of trips by foot and bike rises. As more people use these facilities, drivers expect them and everyone gets safer. This is how shift happens at scale.

Public transit

Safe streets enable transit in turn. Every rider is a pedestrian for part of the trip. If it is hard to cross to a stop, if the stop lacks lighting or a curb, or if the last block home has no sidewalk, the experience is unacceptable. Safer crossings, traffic calming on transit corridors, and priority for buses at signals make the whole trip safe and trustworthy, which builds ridership and reduces crashes at the same time.

Transit also creates a feedback loop: Per passenger mile, the mode is safer than driving for everyone. Vehicles are larger and driven by trained professionals, and each bus or train replaces many cars, which reduces conflicts on the street. Good transit also gives people who should not drive a better option. Teens, older adults, people with certain medical conditions, and anyone who is tired have a safe alternative when service is frequent and reliable.

Transit upgrades are also high-ROI: modest signal changes, dedicated lanes, and safer stop access can deliver large travel-time and safety gains at a fraction of the cost of roadway widening.

Efficient vehicles, electric and otherwise

Safe streets also enable smaller, lighter vehicles—and help end the arms race toward bigger and heavier ones. Lower-speed networks, traffic calming, and separated facilities make compact cars, neighborhood electric vehicles (NEVs), and microcars practical for everyday travel. In many jurisdictions, NEVs can operate on lower-speed streets; when those streets are designed for safety, households can right-size to vehicles that consume far less energy and pose less risk to others.

This reverses the trend toward ever-larger vehicles driven by high-speed, high-volume roads and crash incompatibility. Designing for safe, lower speeds makes small, efficient vehicles viable, which further reduces emissions, space needs, and crash severity.

And it matters even for electric: When considering the overall vehicle fleet, a proportion that is meaingfully smaller and lighter corresponds to a meaingfully lower GHG footprint. It also means fewer materials and resources for electrification are needed per vehicle, which has an additional effect in aggregate. Finally, a more circumspect average vehicle profile is safer for those traveling outside vehicle cabins, like walkers and cyclists, which in large numbers induces more of the lightest travel of all.

Compact, human-centered neighborhoods

Compact, mixed-use neighborhoods reduce daily travel needs so people can reach most essentials with short trips. A connected street network, homes near jobs and schools, and local services within a short walk or ride lower vehicle miles traveled across the entire community.

That cuts emissions and makes streets safer, because shorter trips on calmer streets mean fewer high-speed impacts. Children can reach a park without crossing a five-lane road. An older neighbor can get to a cafe without a long drive. People using mobility aids can count on accessible paths. Safety becomes part of daily life rather than a personal burden.

The wider built environment

Crucially, the same choices that make streets safer also produce a more resource‑efficient, resilient built environment. Designing for compact, walkable places concentrates activity where efficient, electrified buildings and infrastructure perform best.

Shorter distances and attached or smaller homes reduce heating and cooling loads, making heat pumps and building electrification more cost‑effective.

Mixed-use, human‑scaled districts support district energy and shared infrastructure, lower peak electricity demand, and improve the economics of rooftop solar, storage, and demand flexibility.

Denser, walkable street grids cut materials use per capita, reduce stormwater runoff with less paved area per person, and shorten utility extensions—saving public money while boosting resilience to heat, outages, and extreme weather.

In other words, safe streets do double duty: they accelerate transportation decarbonization and strengthen the broader clean‑energy transition across buildings and grids.

In sum, improved vehicles and fuels are necessary but not sufficient. Heavier vehicles can increase the harm in crashes and crowd out the space needed for people outside cars. When streets feel safe, households can right-size travel: walk for a half mile, use a bike or e‑bike for a few miles, take a bus or train for longer trips, and use a car when it is the best tool for the job. This pattern cuts emissions faster and reduces risk right away. It also reduces the scale of infrastructure and energy systems needed for full decarbonization, improving the return on every dollar invested in electrification and clean power.

The benefits of this pathway are wide and personal. Health improves when more people can safely walk or bike for short trips. Cleaner air reduces asthma and heart disease. Most important, fewer families experience the grief and lifelong injury that follow serious crashes.

Freedom expands as more people can travel without a car. A 12‑year‑old can bike to a friend’s house. An 82‑year‑old can cross to a pharmacy. A parent can let a child walk to school without fear. Households save money when they can own fewer and smaller vehicles.

Towns and cities save money when safer street designs reduce crashes and when compact, multimodal infrastructure costs less to build and maintain than endless lanes that must be widened again and again. For climate advocates focused on impact per dollar and speed of deployment, safe streets deliver exceptional returns now and set the stage for every other climate solution to work better.

Unlock the multipliers of avoid and shift with safety. Lower speeds where people live and shop. Build connected, protected networks for walking and cycling. Fix crossings to make them frequent and visible. Invest in frequent, reliable transit and safe access to every stop. Plan for mixed uses and connected streets. These steps cut emissions, save lives, expand freedom, strengthen the clean‑energy transition in buildings and grids, and save money. Safe streets are high‑ROI climate action—and a catalyst for more.

References

Dill, J., and McNeil, N. (2013). Four Types of Cyclists? Examination of a Typology for Better Understanding of Bicycling Behavior. Transportation Research Record. https://doi.org/10.3141/2387-01

Teschke, K., et al. (2012). Route Infrastructure and the Risk of Injuries to Bicyclists. American Journal of Public Health. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2012.300762

Litman, T. (2021). A New Transit Safety Narrative. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. https://www.vtpi.org/safer.pdf

Ewing, R., and Cervero, R. (2010). Travel and the Built Environment. Journal of the American Planning Association. https://doi.org/10.1080/01944361003766766

FHWA (2021). Safe System Approach. Federal Highway Administration. https://highways.dot.gov/safety/zero-deaths/safe-system-approach

IPCC (2022). Climate Change 2022 Mitigation of Climate Change. Working Group III contribution. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/

PNAS (2025). Global health and climate benefits from walking and cycling. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2422334122

UCLA Institute of Transportation Studies (2025). Active travel study identifies pathways for walking and cycling friendly cities. UCLA ITS. https://www.its.ucla.edu/2025/06/09/active-travel-study-identifies-pathways-for-walking-cycling-friendly-cities/

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Efficiency improvements through electric vehicles: You don’t know the half of it

Electrifying transportation seems like magic because the core machine is so much better at turning energy into motion.

A typical electric drivetrain is about three times as efficient as a gasoline one, and it runs on a fuel that can steadily move toward being 100% renewable and carbon-free.

EVs bring other benefits too, like quiet streets and low maintenance, but the headline is simple. Its superpower is efficiency. We are talking about roughly 0.27 kWh per mile for a mid-size EV, equivalent to about 125 MPG.

That gap alone is enough to deeply cut emissions as the grid cleans up. Yet there is another side to efficiency that most people miss.

The way most of us travel day to day is overbuilt for the job. One person, often alone, moving at low average speeds through city streets in a 3,000 to 5,000+ lb vehicle.

Most of the energy goes to pushing a heavy machine and a lot of air, not to moving a human body. On a typical urban trip, about 95% of the energy moves the vehicle, and only about 5% moves the person.

That is not a moral judgment. It is physics.

When you repeatedly accelerate two tons in stop-and-go traffic, you spend energy on mass. When you cruise with a large frontal area, you spend energy on drag. Either way, the human is the smallest part of the payload.

The battery-electric revolution opens the door to right-sized electric mobility that flips this ratio. Electric motors scale beautifully. They are compact, efficient, and happy at many sizes.

That is why we now have an entire family of vehicles that can deliver a full trip at a fraction of the energy. Think e-scooters, e-bikes and cargo bikes, mopeds, compact city EVs, and neighborhood electric vehicles. The savings are not subtle.

A typical e-bike uses about 10 to 20 Wh per mile. At the U.S. average residential electricity price, that is well under one cent per mile. A small neighborhood EV might use 80 to 150 Wh per mile, still many times less than a full-size car.

Compare that with a gasoline sedan at around 1,100 Wh per mile worth of fuel energy, or even a mid-size EV at about 250 to 300 Wh per mile, and the order-of-magnitude difference becomes clear.

Right-sizing brings other gains. Smaller electric vehicles need smaller batteries, which lowers cost and materials demand. They can charge from an ordinary outlet overnight. Parking gets easier. Streets get calmer. Air gets cleaner where people live.

These are resilience benefits as well. A household with a mix of light electric options can keep moving even during fuel disruptions, and a car with a modest battery can backstop outages at home with vehicle-to-load gear. Cities that shift short trips to light electric modes need less space and less money to move more people.

None of this argues against the mainstream EV. For many trips, a conventional car is the right tool, and replacing a gasoline car with an electric one cuts energy use by a factor of three or four before you account for the grid’s ongoing shift to renewables. It is simply that our efficiency story is incomplete if it stops at the car-for-car swap. The lowest-cost, lowest-carbon, and most space-efficient miles will often be ridden, not driven.

The good news is we are already living in this future. Most urban trips are short enough for light electric mobility. In the United States, roughly half of all trips are under three miles. That is e-bike territory for many people and many days, with weather gear and cargo options making it practical for more. Cities that add safe networks for small vehicles see rapid uptake, because the product is compelling. It is fun, fast enough, cheap to run, and simple to maintain.

If you want a simple mental model, use this. Electrification gives you a big step up in efficiency at any vehicle size. Downsizing gives you another. Stack them and you get both deep decarbonization and better daily life. We can triple drivetrain efficiency by moving from internal combustion to electric. We can multiply total-system efficiency again by choosing the smallest electric that does the job. The result is cleaner air, lower costs, quieter streets, and far less energy burned to move the same person from A to B.

So by all means celebrate the conventional electric car. It is a workhorse and a crucial climate tool. Then look at the rest of the electric toolbox and pick the right size for the job. The fastest way to win on energy and money is to electrify, and then right-size.